As per Emily Kaplan of ESPN, “Hearing Colorado likely won’t re-sign Erik Johnson. The veteran defenseman will hit the open market when free agency begins July 1.” While the Edmonton Oilers don’t exactly have millions to spend, could Johnson be a player that GM Ken Holland sees as an upgrade over his current blue-line combination?
For the upcoming season, the Colorado Avalanche have a solid defensive lineup with key defensemen Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, Josh Manson, Kurtis MacDermid, and Brad Hunt already under contract. Additionally, restricted free agent Bowen Byram is part of their plans. Unrestricted free agent Jack Johnson could return, and if he does, it makes sense the Avs have little room for Erik Johnson.
How Does Johnson Represent an Upgrade?
If the Oilers are looking at a No. 6 on the right side, Johnson is an improvement over the current options. He averaged 17:15 per game last season as a right-shot and while he didn’t score and produced only eight assists, he’s steadier than the uncertainty that is Vincent Desharnais or another prospect coming up and getting a shot on a roster that needs to win now. Johnson knows how to win, he’s got size, he’s a leader, and he’s become a smart stay-at-home defender that could make for a good partner in shifts with Darnell Nurse where head coach Jay Woodcroft elects to rotate 11-7.
The question becomes cost and how much he’s willing to drop his rate from $6 million per season down to an affordable number that a contending team who is tight to the cap like the Oilers are can afford. The reality is, Edmonton can’t afford to pay much more than $1-$1.5 million for this role. If they believe Johnson is somehow capable of filing Cody Ceci’s spot, and moving on from Ceci to fill holes in another area, the Oilers might be able to give Johnson $2 million, and if he’s open to it, shifting things around might make sense.
It’s fair to argue that having him replace Ceci might not be the best idea. That said, as a depth guy playing 15 minutes a night on the third pairing, if he’s affordable, that’s a pretty good option.
The Oilers Will Likely Be Outbid
The problem for Holland is that there will be plenty of action surrounding the 35-year-old Johnson. Even if he’s limited in what he can provide a team, there are clubs like the Buffalo Sabres who are actively seeking out defensemen and have a lot more cap space than Edmonton does.
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Unless the Oilers can convince Johnson that winning is the most important thing and that he’s better off making less money with a legit chance at another Stanley Cup, the Oilers can’t compete with the Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Seattle Kraken, or Ottawa Senators. All of those teams want to be competitive next season and all have the ability to pay a little more than Johnson might be worth.
Would It Be Worth Offering Two Years?
Things get risky if the Oilers try to win the day by offering a little term. Again, considering Johnson’s injury history and his age, there are question marks there. A two-year deal at $1.5 million per isn’t terrible, but if he’s unable to stay healthy or in and out of the lineup, it’s not ideal. Multiple years might not be out of the realm of possibility as the Oilers just signed 36-year-old Derek Ryan to a two-year contract. Clearly, they aren’t afraid of doing what’s needed to keep someone’s cap hit down.
Johnson might be an option worth exploring. For Edmonton, the best bet is to make a phone call and see where the player’s head is at. Is this about winning or money? From there, try to gauge what he can offer in terms of minutes. If the Oilers are confident he can replace Ceci for nearly two million less per season, moving things around might be an option. If not, there’s a dollar value here the Oilers can’t go beyond to at a reliable No. 6.