As the team tries to navigate a tricky salary cap-themed summer, the Edmonton Oilers have one pressing concern– a new deal for defenseman Evan Bouchard. According to a report by Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic, General Manager Ken Holland is considering a one-year contract for the blueliner and the likely logical reason seems to be that he’s counteracting the threat of an offer sheet.
One could argue that this has the makings of a handshake kind of offer between the player and the team, one signifying the understanding that a bigger payday is coming in short order. That said, the fact that other teams will be looking at Bouchard and wondering if there’s a way to scoop the player for a fair price has to be a thought during these negotiations. A one-year extension is essentially Holland’s way of saying, ‘Stick with this for one more year and I’ll make you whole when I can afford to. And, if you do, you’ll be signing more than then any offer sheet can pay you now.’
Bouchard Is A Prime Offer Sheet Candidate
Nugent-Bowman writes that if presented with an offer sheet and Bouchard is willing to sign it, the Oilers would likely be unable to match. Things are far too tight on their cap to keep Bouchard at any price, especially if another team comes in with an offer just out of Edmonton’s reach. They know the Oilers would likely have to move pieces even if the team can go over the cap by a percentage before the 2023-24 season starts and that could be a play to not only scoop a developing NHLer, but weaken a Stanley Cup contender. He writes:
Bouchard, a top-four defenceman just tapping into his potential, is exactly the type of candidate rival teams should covet. A major reason for that is the Oilers’ cap situation.
source – ‘What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?’ – Daniel Nugent-Bowman – The Athletic – 06/15/2023
Edmonton views the $3 million ballpark as a reasonable rate for Bouchard on a one-year deal, but if a team offered between $4,290,126 – $6,435,186, Holland would have a big decision to make.
Within that salary threshold, the Oilers would get a first-round pick, plus a third-round pick. It seems unlikely a team would creep toward the $6.4 million mark, but $4.3 isn’t out of the question. And, should a team offer $4.2, Edmonton might still be in tough to match, and should they not, would only get a second-round pick as compensation. In either case, those picks don’t help the Oilers win and that’s the mandate for this organization. So too, losing Bouchard doesn’t do much to help the team’s cap situation either.
It would be best for the Oilers to get him signed, not only so they have a better idea of their budget ahead of the marketing opening on July 1, but also so they know a major piece of their puzzle isn’t a concern for at least one more year.
Kill Two Birds With One Stone
While avoiding an offer sheet, there’s another logical reason to go one year on a Bouchard extension. In anticipation of the salary cap increase in the upcoming seasons, the more cap jumps, the more expensive Bouchard is going to be. With another year of strong results under his belt, Bouchard is going to get a hefty raise. With two seasons of strong offensive numbers and better defensive play, Bouchard’s contract has the potential to become a whopper. After a three-season bridge deal, anything is possible. As such, a long-term deal now is best. Because the Oilers cant afford it, a one-year deal is the next best thing.
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Nugent-Bowman notes that by signing Bouchard to a short-term contract, the Oilers can minimize the impact on their salary cap, allowing Holland and his staff to address other roster needs effectively. Meanwhile, they push the Bouchard problem down the road, but not so far they’re dealing with signing a proven commodity with a salary cap of $100 million and players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to get done.
There’s no world in which Bouchard signs something similar to Ryan McLeod’s $798,000 deal from last year. That said, the Oilers can keep Bouchard’s number down on a one-year deal, potentially avoid an offer sheet issue, and set the player and the team up for a long-term deal where both sides are happy, but the contract is also affordable as big-time players start to really look for big-time money.