The Edmonton Oilers are eight games into the 2023-24 season and Connor Brown has played in every game. While he is under contract for one year at a very good price — $775,000 average annual value (AAV) — that came with something extra. In order to give the Oilers the best chance to win right now and get Brown at the lowest cap hit possible, a games-played bonus was added to his contract. If he plays 10 games this season, the Oilers will owe him $3.25 million next year, some of which will count against the cap.
If the Oilers stay $430,000 below the cap this season, it will cost around $2.84 million in an overage charge against the cap next season for the Oilers. While it could be seen as a problem for the summer, this team is in a great spot to compete for a Stanley Cup this season and next before owing some big names some big contracts.
If Ken Holland is thinking about next season as well, it is a conversation to have to waive Brown before he hits 10 games. There are, of course, lots of reasons why the Oilers shouldn’t do that as well. While Brown is without a point through eight games, it is only eight games and he was moved off of the top line with Connor McDavid fairly quickly to help him get back up to speed on a lower line. Brown has mainly been with Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway on the third line, and the line has looked very strong despite not scoring a goal yet.
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While points are expected from not only Brown but the rest of the bottom six, all signs point to the veteran winger starting to produce as soon as he gets some puck luck. His analytics on the season are 64.37 Corsi for percent (CF%), 60.17 Fenwick for percent (FF%), 61.54 shots for percent (SF%), 57.89 goals for percent (GF%), 61.15 scoring chances for percent (SCF%), and 60.71 high-danger chances for percent (HDCF%). His PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage when on the ice) is also 87.9, which is very unlucky and low. When everything starts regressing to the mean, things will pick up for him. But, in the case that Holland has seen enough and may want to even send him down for now, we’re going to take a look at four players the Oilers would be inclined to call up. This would also work if someone else were to get injured in the coming weeks and land on long-term injured reserve (LTIR).
Raphael Lavoie
The hype is real for Raphael Lavoie, and 31 teams missed out on claiming him when the Oilers sent him down through waivers at the end of training camp. If the Oilers were able to hold more players on the NHL roster this season and didn’t have next to no cap space, he would have made the team. Many believe he is NHL-ready, including me, and he’s continuing to show that to start the American Hockey League (AHL) season.
Lavoie just won the AHL player of the week and has four goals and seven points in five games this season. I believe he is just ramping up his production too as he proved how dominant he can be for long stretches last season after getting healthy. He led last season’s Bakersfield Condors with 25 goals and also had 45 points in 61 games. He is forcing the Oilers to pay attention to him and should be in the NHL right now, especially with the lack of production in the bottom six.
Lane Pederson
Lavoie isn’t the only one who impressed in training camp and is playing well at the beginning of the AHL season. Lane Pederson, who is signed for this season and next, is a point-per-game player right now. He has two goals and four points in four games and is definitely an option for the fourth line. While two of the four players that could be options to be called up in place of Brown can fill that role on the third line, Pederson is not one of those.
James Hamblin
Unlike the other three forwards who could potentially get a call-up, James Hamblin has played games for the Oilers before. He was recalled last season and got into 10 games in the NHL, the first 10 of his career. He, too, has started strong with three goals and five points in five games. While he isn’t the first choice that I would call up if I was in the position to do so, he is proving to be someone the Oilers could bring up at some point this season and he would provide some value.
Xavier Bourgault
Xavier Bourgault is the future for Edmonton and should be on the team by next season. He has already taken a jump from his first season pro to his second and looked very good in the preseason. This definitely caught the attention of the Oilers’ management, and at one point I even thought it may be possible he could find himself on the roster for a few games to begin the season. In terms of being ready for the NHL, Lavoie is ahead of Bourgault, but both should see time this season and be a part of the future.
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While the Oilers aren’t seen as a team with a great prospect pool, they do have some strong options to be brought up at points throughout the season at forward. If Holland and the Oilers make the tough choice of waiving Brown before the bonus is paid, I like the players that could be called up.