Drafting hasn’t exactly been great under Ken Holland, especially recently, and this is due to the Edmonton Oilers not taking the best player available at their pick. Instead, they have chosen by position and it has already hurt them. While they could have some serious talent if the team had just gone into their pick with the simple strategy of taking the best player, the Oilers would be in a much better spot and have more talent than they know what to do with.
While we won’t count the traded 2023 first-round draft pick, the previous four picks by the Oilers in the first round include Philip Broberg (2019), Dylan Holloway (2020), Xavier Bourgault (2021), and Reid Schaefer (2022). It is easy to look back on the draft now and see who every team passed on with their pick, but this is an obvious blunder that could have been avoided, rather than just missing on the best player available. For each of the four years the Oilers chose by position and didn’t take the best player at their pick, I will now dive into who their pick could have been and the shift it may have caused in the organization.
Oilers’ 2019 First Round Pick
Broberg was drafted eighth overall and at the time, the Oilers were trying to get some pillars on their defence that would help them out for many years. This was evident when the team drafted Evan Bouchard at 10th overall the year prior. Eighth is a high pick and a team can typically find a very good player at that spot in the draft. There is a high expectation for picks that high to turn pro and have a large impact early, even for defenders who take longer to develop. This is what happened with Broberg.
The Oilers’ 22-year-old defenceman hasn’t gotten much NHL experience because the Oilers aren’t in a spot to be patient with development. They are trying to win and this season doesn’t make that any better now that the Oilers are in a hole this early in the season. Broberg has shown some great elements to his game, but is seemingly a seventh defenceman this season. Who could and should the Oilers have chosen at eight overall in 2019? The answer is the best player available, Trevor Zegras.
A centerman and defenceman are two very different positions and the Oilers had Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down the middle already. Edmonton had also just drafted Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, and Ryan McLeod in the three years prior. This gave the Oilers the impression that they didn’t need any more forwards or centermen specifically. Considering only McLeod, the second-rounder, is still around (and not contributing offensively), Zegras could have very much been used in the Oilers’ forward group, even if they would have had to make some sacrifices by now to stay cap-compliant.
The Anaheim Ducks, who drafted Zegras, have already been trying him out on the wing. This is where he could have found himself on the Oilers. That or as the second-line center while McDavid and Draisaitl dominate together on one line. He may be soft, but he is highly skilled, scoring 23 goals and 60-plus points in each of his first two seasons in the NHL. The Oilers could have used that skill in each of the past two seasons before he needed a new contract (from “Unnumbered Fantasy Thoughts: Ice cold starts – Fact or fiction?”, EP Rinkside, Nov. 24, 2023). Instead, they have Broberg who is being healthy scratched or has been up and down between the NHL and the American Hockey League (AHL) for the last couple of seasons.
Oilers’ 2020 First Round Pick
The Oilers didn’t heavily reach for Holloway in 2020, but they did look a little deeper than needed to pick him. Ranked where the Oilers picked at 14th overall was Dawson Mercer, who was also a centerman going into the draft. By no fault of his own, Holloway has struggled with injuries in his young career, which has definitely held him back early and during important development years. While Holloway only got to play on the Oilers for part of last season and this season, Mercer came into the NHL very hot in his first two seasons with the New Jersey Devils.
Mercer had a great rookie season at age 20 with 17 goals and 42 points, then got even better in his sophomore season with 27 goals and 56 points. Sure, his sophomore slump is hitting this season (his third in the NHL), but he is starting to come out of it. Regardless, he is in the lineup while Holloway is injured. Mercer is a legitimate top-six player already that has been good at center or the wing. The Oilers could surely use the offense this season that Mercer has proven he can provide. That and he is still in the last year of his entry-level deal this season.
Oilers’ 2021 First Round Pick
What is the position that the Oilers have struggled with the most this season? Goaltending. What could have helped with that was drafting a goalie with elite potential in the first round in 2021. Available before the Oilers traded down and selected Bourgault was Jesper Wallstedt. The Oilers weren’t exactly set in net for the future at this time either with Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen as the tandem and a young Stuart Skinner and even younger Olivier Rodrigue in the system. Both were picked outside of the first round, so there were no guarantees.
The Oilers traded down for what, a mid-round draft pick? Seeing how this season has gone and even how the organization was at the time, this was not worth it. Wallstedt has already been called up this season for the Minnesota Wild for a game because that team’s goaltending is just as bad as the Oilers’ is right now. That being said, he didn’t play a game, but he is ready for the NHL. The 20-year-old goaltender has a .928 save percentage in the AHL this season and giving an opportunity to a young goalie isn’t unheard of. Some of the top talent come in and contribute earlier than others.
Bourgault is struggling in his second season of pro hockey and is being talked about as a potential trade piece to get the Oilers a goalie. Weird how things have a way of coming full circle. Bourgault hasn’t been a factor for the Oilers yet, while Wallstedt could be and would have stopped Holland from committing to a veteran netminder for five years if Skinner, Wallstedt, and Rodrigue were in the system (from “Lowetide: The Oilers’ best prospect is Xavier Bourgault. Will he play in the NHL this year?”, The Athletic, Sept. 18, 2023).
Oilers’ 2022 First Round Pick
The Oilers selected Schaefer with the 32nd overall pick, but the Oilers were actually set to pick 29th originally. They dropped down in order to move Zack Kassian’s contract to the Arizona Coyotes, along with a future second and third-round pick. This took one of the two best available forwards out of play while the other was still sitting there when the Oilers drafted Schaefer instead.
Related: 4 Teams the Oilers Can Target to Find a Goalie & Defenseman
Brad Lambert was the player the Oilers could have taken at 29th (he got drafted 30th) and Jagger Firkus was still sitting there when the Oilers drafted 32nd, but was also ranked higher. While Schaefer was traded regardless, this might have changed the Oilers’ perception if they had a better player. Lambert impressed a lot in his first training camp with the Winnipeg Jets and was originally ranked a lot higher earlier in his draft year. Firkus on the other hand is lighting up the Western Hockey League (WHL) with 22 goals and 43 points in 22 games. This is his third consecutive season where he’s showing complete dominance in junior.
The Oilers could have many of their current problems and issues they’ve dealt with for a few years solved if they had just approached the NHL Entry Draft with the mindset of acquiring the best available player. Instead of drafting by position, the Oilers must draft the best available player and it should work itself out in the end. This needs to be a way of approaching the draft in the future and something that needs to change when Holland moves on.