Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch might have made the toughest decision of his career on Tuesday (May 14), when he elected to start goalie Calvin Pickard instead of Stuart Skinner against the Vancouver Canucks in Game 4 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs second round.
But it now appears that was only the second toughest decision of Knoblauch’s career. The toughest is deciding who will start between the pipes for Edmonton in Game 5 of the best-of-seven series tonight (May 16) at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.
While Pickard backstopped the Oilers on Tuesday to a 3-2 victory, earning tremendous praise for his performance, Knoblauch still hadn’t decided Wednesday which of Edmonton’s netminders would be starting Game 5. Or if the coach had made up his mind, he wasn’t tipping his hand.
Game 4 was an absolute thriller at Rogers Place, where Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard scored with just 38.1 seconds remaining to lift his team to victory and deadlock the series at two wins apiece. Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also had goals for Edmonton.
Historically, the team that takes Game 5 of an NHL Playoffs series tied 2-2 goes on to win it the vast majority of the time. With that in mind, every move a coach makes in this situation is of the utmost importance. Here’s what Knoblauch must weigh as he determines his starter.
Pros of Starting Pickard
Pickard had a strong outing in Game 4, stopping 19 of 21 shots to earn his first career NHL Playoffs victory. He had to make a few good saves, and really couldn’t be faulted for either puck that got past him.
The 32-year-old veteran played with the same calm and composure that he exhibited in his backup role throughout the regular season when he went 12-7-1 with a respectable goals-against average (GAA) of 2.45 and save percentage (SV%) of .909, thus answering any questions that the moment might be too big for him.
Cons of Starting Pickard
Before Game 4, Pickard had played only 16:11 of Stanley Cup Playoff hockey, and that was in Game 3 when he came on in relief of a struggling Skinner. He’s a career backup, who doesn’t have a lot of experience being the man in any situation, much less one of this magnitude.
While neither Canucks goal scored on Pickard would be characterized as bad, the fact is that Edmonton had a two-goal lead in the third period on Tuesday and their goalie couldn’t protect it. He conceded the game-tying goal with less than two minutes remaining, and if it wasn’t for the heroics of Bouchard moments later, the conversation after Game 4 might have been a lot different.
Pros of Starting Skinner
Skinner, an NHL All-Star Game participant and Calder Trophy finalist in 2023, has been Edmonton’s No. 1 goaltender for much of the last two years. Since the start of 2022-23, he has a regular season record of 65-30-10 with a 2.68 GAA and .910 SV%.
The 25-year-old Skinner was a huge part of Edmonton’s turnaround following a dreadful start to their 2023-24 schedule and had the most wins among any NHL goalie over the last five months of the regular season.
Cons of Starting Skinner
As good as he’s played in the winter months, Skinner has performed relatively poorly during the springtime. His career postseason stats of 3.49 GAA and .881 SV% both rank among the worst in Stanley Cup Playoffs history for goalies that have made at least 20 starts. He has also been pulled from five of his 20 playoff starts.
Skinner was excellent in Games 3 and 4 of the first round against the Los Angeles Kings, allowing a combined one goal on 61 shots over the two road games, as Edmonton beat the Kings 6-1 and 1-0. But in every other of his seven appearances during the 2024 postseason, he has given up at least three goals and registered a sub-.900 SV%.
Pickard Is Sentimental Favourite
Pickard picking up the win in Game 4 might be the feel-good story of the playoffs so far. The New Brunswick native had spent a dozen years in the pros before finally getting a taste of Stanley Cup Playoffs action, and Tuesday became the oldest goalie in franchise history to start his first career postseason game.
Related: 5 Things to Know About Oilers’ Goalie Call-Up Calvin Pickard
He’s quickly become a fan favourite in Oil Country and is clearly beloved by his teammates, who gushed about him while speaking to the media following Tuesday’s triumph.
“What an awesome guy, what an awesome story,” said Draisaitl. “All year he’s given us a chance to win, and every time he’s in there it seems like he’s standing on his head, so I’m just super proud of him.”
“No matter what, he’s a great locker room guy,” Bouchard said. “Everyone wants to be around him. When he can go in the net and and play like that, it’s kind of hard to not want a teammate like Cal on your team.”
There’s never been a sign that the Oilers skaters lack belief in Skinner. But when Pickard is in the pipes, are they playing with a different mindset that’s more conducive to success?
Knoblauch Taking His Time
That said, if Knoblauch does indeed decide to roll with Pickard, it’s fair to wonder if he missed an opportunity to instill confidence by not naming the Game 5 starter yet.
With the Oilers being both two games from elimination and two wins from the next round, which is subsequently two series from capturing the Stanley Cup, every monumental decision by Knoblauch begets the next: if Pickard starts and plays sensational in Game 5 but the Oilers lose, who gets the nod in Game 6? What if Skinner starts and the Oilers win Game 5, but he continues to be shaky?
It is a fascinating situation to watch. The starting goalie could be Skinner, Pickard, or an emergency backup that fans have never heard of before. At the end of tonight, all that matters for Edmonton is that the result is a ‘W’.