The Edmonton Oilers came into the 2023-24 season as one of the favourites to win the Stanley Cup. They have won three playoff series over the past two seasons and have been knocked out by the eventual Cup champions both times. Every team has to go through adversity and struggles before getting to the top of the mountain, and the Oilers have done that.
While it seemed like everything lined up for them this season, they didn’t start out very good at all in their first two games, going 0-2-0 and losing both games to the Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers got blown out 8-1 in the season opener and had a better effort in their second game, losing 4-3. There are reasons why that happened, but it was not at all expected for this team. We will look at some overreactions to the Oilers through those first two games and then take a realistic approach to those problems.
Goaltending/Defense is Still Horrible
Last season, there was no question about the Oilers’ offense, though it was led by the best power play the NHL has ever seen in a season. While five-on-five can be worked on, that’s something we’ll get into further down. Where the Oilers can’t succeed is when they allow 12 goals in two games. Jack Campbell had an amazing preseason, only to be shocked back to reality in the season opener by allowing four goals on 16 shots. Stuart Skinner was no better, allowing four goals on 16 shots to end the first game and then four goals on 16 shots in their second game. The Oilers outshot the Canucks 40-16 in that losing effort, and that’s a game they have to have.
It’s not all on the goaltending though, as the defensemen and the team’s defense have not been good enough. While the effort wasn’t there in the first game of this season, it was in the second, but mistakes cost them. One play in particular allowed for the Canucks to have a 2-on-0 because the shot missed the net by the Oilers, and both defensemen were thinking offensively instead of staying on the blue line. The Oilers continue to lose coverage and make mistakes. They are implementing a new defensive system, and it takes time, but it still isn’t good enough in front of the goaltenders. Pucks cannot be turned over in their own end or in the neutral zone, breakout passes need to be solid, and everyone has to get back.
Nothing Has Gone Right for the Oilers
Puck luck is a big factor in some games, and the Oilers have gotten none of it so far. PDO is a combined shooting percentage (S%) and save percentage (SV%) when a player is on the ice or for a team in general. It should add up to 100. The Oilers’ PDO so far this season is 81.8. Their S% is 4.2 percent below the league average, and the team SV% is .148 below the league average.
Related: Overreactions to Week 1 of the 2023-24 NHL Season
The Oilers will start to put the puck in the net at a higher rate, considering their expected goals percent (xGoals%) is 11th in the league at 54.34 percent and their goals percentage (Goals%) is 31st in the league at 11.11 percent. It just so happens the Oilers also lead the NHL in Corsi percent (shots for and against) with 64.05 percent. There is only one other team even above 60 percent in that category, and that’s the Winnipeg Jets.
Oilers’ 5-on-5 is Bad
The Oilers have a great power play that is already converting at 27.27 percent through two games despite losing both times. All five players on the top unit work very well together, and even if there is a cold spot here and there, it will win the team games. 5-on-5, on the other hand, may contribute to losing the Oilers’ games. The Oilers can’t score as much as they should be able to when they are at even strength with all of the talent they have. Part of it is staying on the perimeter and not taking the puck right to the net like many other teams do. They attack on the power play but don’t do that as much at 5-on-5.
The Oilers have already altered their top nine ahead of their third game in order to get a spark or get the lines going at 5-on-5 (from “Blender bender: Edmonton Oilers bring in major shake-up for forward lines”, Edmonton Journal, Oct. 16, 2023). While the power play can’t be relied upon to win every game, the S% so far has been poor, partly due to outside shots, but also the Oilers getting “goalied.” Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were taking reps in practice on the same line, and Connor Brown was dropped down to the third line for Warren Foegele. We’ll see how this goes, but I expect the lines to go back to normal once the team gets going.
As is stated, these are overreactions. It is only two games into the season, and the Oilers have all the tools to be a very good team. They wouldn’t be the Oilers if they didn’t take the hard route though. They have three games in the second week of the season and are hoping to get things going in the right direction early.