The Edmonton Oilers appear to have finally hit rock bottom this season. The good news is that there is 85 percent of the season remaining, and most analytics suggest that they should, at least, rise to the mean, eventually. While we are still waiting for them to score and save pucks, the losses have piled up, the most glaring to the last-place San Jose Sharks on Thursday (Nov. 9). The Oilers now rank 32nd in league standings – tied with the Sharks, who have been dominated in every game they’ve played this season.
Once again, the Oilers followed the script of coming out of the gates fast and aggressively, shooting often but failing to score, only to find themselves behind with no scoring ability to fight back. The Oilers are ranked first in the NHL in expected goals percentage at 57.64 while ranking 30th with 38 goals percentage. While expected to score 32 goals, the team has 19, and while being expected to allow 23 goals, the team has given up 31. This is what has many stunned about the Oilers’ season.
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After coming into the season as a Stanley Cup contender, sitting at the bottom of the standings right now is rock bottom for the Oilers. Can it get worse? Yes, but not by much. Can it get better? It has to, and it has to start very soon. The Oilers have to play above .600 hockey for the rest of the season to hit 90 points, and that won’t be good enough to make the playoffs. The Oilers are not out of it, but how do they get back into it?
Oilers Must Score & Save
The Oilers simply aren’t putting the puck in the back of the net in line with their scoring changes, and they aren’t stopping the puck. The Oilers have the worst save percentage in the league at .860 in all situations. Their penalty kill needs to be much better, but that isn’t nearly the issue. The Oilers are always trailing at the end of games, so they get desperate, take penalties, and just run out of time, no matter how much pressure they put on the other team down the stretch.
The Oilers have been shooting and pressuring for good chunks of time every game. Typically, the team would see the effort level fade and get discouraged. But I don’t see that with all of the strong pushes the Oilers continue to have each game when down on the scoreboard. They had over 80 shot attempts against the Sharks and over 40 shots on net. While it seems like every goaltender the Oilers have faced is a Vezina candidate, they shouldn’t. The team is in a slump with most of the same players as last season when they finished first in the league in goals. They can still do it. No team goes without a slump offensively or defensively. It just so happens that they are struggling at both ends right now.
Message Needs to Be Sent & Received
The first big message was sent when Jack Campbell, the Oilers’ $5 million annual average value goalie, was sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL), and Calvin Pickard was recalled. Pickard hasn’t played a game in the NHL since 2021-22, starting just one game that season. While this is a good thing, because it shows Stuart Skinner that it’s his net, he still has to prove it and do something with it. Pickard should have got the start against the Sharks. It was an important game, and Skinner allowed three goals on just 18 shots. While they weren’t all the fault of Skinner, he still finished with a low save percentage and allowed three goals.
A message to the players needs to be sent, not just to the goaltending. While Pickard needs to be given some starts now, the skaters need to be held responsible if they aren’t backchecking or playing the way they can. As head coach Jay Woodcroft has mentioned, when the Oilers are down in a game, and some of the top offensive players are making mistakes, he still feels like he has to send them out to try and get a goal because they give the team the best chance to.
Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse (relatively good all season), and Leon Draisaitl have all made mistakes or shown a lack of effort on certain plays. While benching a player sends a message, the Oilers are usually down in the game by the time someone has to be blamed for those mistakes, and those players are needed on the ice (from “Bench Evan Bouchard? OK. But how about Drai, McD, Skinner, RNH, Foegele, Kulak etc.?”, Edmonton Journal, Nov. 8, 2023).
Related: Oilers’ Calvin Pickard Can Be This Season’s Pheonix Copley
I have no doubt that everyone in the Oilers’ locker room feels the heat, and they aren’t blaming outside sources for their struggles. There is resilience in that room, and they can turn it around. It is getting more and more difficult the deeper they dig the hole, but there is only one way to go at this point, and that’s up. With one or two wins, their confidence should be back.