On Thursday (Feb. 16), Edmonton Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft confirmed that winger Kailer Yamamoto would be in the lineup Friday (Feb. 17) when the Oilers host the New York Rangers. Yamamoto has missed Edmonton’s last 12 games, and spent the last month on long term injured reserve (LTIR) with an undisclosed injury.
Yamamoto’s return has been anticipated in Oil Country for weeks, each day bringing a new round of rampant wild speculation about how the Oilers would make room for the 24-year-old: trade Jesse Puljujarvi? Waive Warren Foegele? Assign Dylan Holloway to the American Hockey League (AHL)?
That answer was not yet known as of Thursday night. Things still might not be any clearer by Friday morning. But whatever the Oilers ultimately do, one certainty is that they’ll be doing it with Yamamoto on the roster. And that’s something worth talking about.
Yamamoto and Oilers Struggle with Consistency
The Oilers continue to be maddeningly capricious, challenging for the Pacific Division lead one week and clinging to a Western Conference playoff spot the next. Whether this team is a contender or a pretender is sometimes just a matter of perspective. For example, have the Oilers picked up points in six of their last seven games, four of which were on the road? Or have they won only three of their last seven games, all of which have come against teams currently not in a playoff position? Both are true.
Related: Oilers Activating Yamamoto Will Require Subsequent Moves
Yamamoto is the individual personification of his team. Over three years as a full-time NHLer, the Spokane native has had scoring streaks as hot as the desert, and endured scoring droughts like the desert. If the former version of Yamamoto shows up for the final third of the season, he could be the difference in an extra win or two for Edmonton. And in the ultra-tight Western Conference postseason race, those few points could be the difference between finishing atop the Pacific Division standings or just getting a wild card playoff spot.
Yamamoto Had Slow Start to This Season
Thus far, 2022-23 has not been a great season for Yamamoto, as he’s recorded just 12 points in 31 games. There were some positive signs, however: after being held without a goal in his first 15 appearances of the season, he scored four times in a stretch of 15 games spanning Dec. 9 to Jan. 9, which is right in line with his goals per game rate of 2021-22, when he tallied 20 times in 81 contests.
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It’s also in keeping with his pattern of streaky production: the Oilers’ 2017 first-round draft pick (22nd overall) began his NHL career by scoring just once in 26 games over the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. Then he was called up from the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors just after Christmas 2019 and racked up 11 goals and 15 assists in 27 games before COVID-19 shut the season down.
Yamamoto started 2020-21 by scoring three times in the first seven games and had five goals through 17 contests. But he was held to one goal in his final 25 games, and ultimately finished the pandemic-shortened season with just eight tallies in 52 games.
That slump followed Yamamoto into last season, as he began the year going seven more games without scoring. But then he lit the lamp in consecutive contests on his way to the first 20-goal campaign of his pro career, in what was essentially his first full-length NHL campaign. And that brings us to this season, of which 27 games remain in the Oilers’ schedule.
Oilers Soar When Yamamoto Scores
Since making his NHL debut in November 2018, Yamamoto has played 217 games with the Oilers. Edmonton is 32-6-4 (.810 point percentage) when he scores at least one goal, and 89-73-13 (.546 point percentage) when he’s held without one. That incredible difference in point percentage is a testament to how much of a difference marker the plucky right winger can be.
Maybe that’s why the Oilers appear to have chosen Yamamoto over Puljujarvi or Foegele. If a current Edmonton forward ends up leaving town in the wake of his activation from LTIR, the pressure to produce will be even greater for the former Spokane Chiefs star.
Given Edmonton’s current standing (following Thursday’s NHL games, the Oilers were in the Western Conference’s first wild card position, five points ahead of the first non-playoff team, four points out of first in the Pacific Division), Friday against the Rangers would be a good time for Yamamoto to start producing, no matter who is in the lineup with him.