The 2023-24 season could not have gone much worse for the Ottawa Senators. After so much optimism ahead of the season opener, the team sputtered, costing them their general manager, head coach, and a chance at making the playoffs for the first time in captain Brady Tkachuk’s career. All of that led them to end up with the seventh overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, which may be the first step to some big improvements next season.
The 2024 Draft class is full of promise and intrigue; TSN draft guru Bob McKenzie called the picks following Macklin Celebrini an unpredictable ride since there is no consensus on any spots from 2-16. That gives the Senators a lot of options, but also a lot of questions. Ottawa’s prospect pool needs a lot of help, but with just two picks in the first round, they’ll have to prioritize the areas they believe need the most help. Figuring that out might be one of the most important moves for new GM Steve Staios, and he’ll need to have a clear idea of the Senators’ needs before he even looks at any of the top prospects available.
Top Pairing Right-Shot Defencemen
Let’s start with the most obvious. The Senators need a top-pairing right-shot defenceman more than almost any other team in the NHL. Their top option now is Artem Zub, who has been stellar since coming over from the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) in 2020-21. A defensive defender first, he’s shown some promising offensive prowess, putting up a career-high 25 points in 69 games this season. Because he was the team’s top right shot, he primarily lined up alongside Jake Sanderson, but they ended the season with a minus-16 goal differential. That’s less than ideal for two great defensive players.
However, Zub was better alongside Thomas Chabot on the second pairing, posting a plus-two goal differential. Yet the pair only spent 132 minutes with him, which works out to an average of just over six games using Zub’s average time on ice of roughly 21 minutes. He likely would have spent more time there, but with the Senators’ lack of right-shot options, he was bumped up to the top line, where he wasn’t as effective. They couldn’t turn to Jacob Bernard-Docker, who had some bumps this season despite playing 72 games and scoring 14 points, nor could they rely on respected veteran Travis Hamonic, who was practically a liability whenever he was on the ice, posting one of the lowest expected goals-against per 60 minutes in the NHL with a 3.72.
The problem is that the Senators don’t have anything better coming up. Lassi Thomson, once a top Senators prospect, just announced he had signed with Malmo in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). A former 19th-overall pick, he never panned out as a top-four cornerstone defenceman, partly due to his minimal deployment. From 2021-2024, he played just 18 NHL games despite making strides in the American Hockey League (AHL). Likely frustrated, he took his chance to play bigger minutes closer to home, and although the Senators still own his rights, it’s unlikely he will come back to the NHL.
Maxence Guenette has the highest potential of any of their right-shot defensive prospects as he’s been a solid producer in the AHL, but those skills haven’t translated to the NHL yet. His puck possession averages were some of the lowest on the team after seven appearances in 2023-24. He could emerge as a top-four option, but there’s a long way to go to get there and, at 23 years old, he doesn’t have a lot of time left before he hits his peak.
Nikolas Matinpalo had better possession numbers, sitting at a 53.6 Corsi For percentage, which ranked fourth on the Senators, but he played just four NHL games this season. He’s another potential second-pairing defenceman if he sticks around. Djibril Touré, a giant 6-foot-7 shutdown defender, and Hoyt Stanley, a lanky defensive-minded defender with some offensive abilities, offer some intriguing potential as defensive specialists, but, once again, top out as second-pairing options.
Even if Thomson had decided to stay, the Senators don’t have a single top-pairing right-shot defender. Jakob Chychrun was supposed to fill that role, but by the end of the season, he was back on his left side. The expensive experiment didn’t work, leaving Ottawa’s defensive group in a bigger mess than they were in before he arrived thanks to his expiring contract.
A Top-Six Center
If you go back even just a season, the Senators had a solid group of centers that could compete with any of the up-and-coming teams in the NHL. This season, however, Josh Norris’ shoulder problems have put a lot of that into question. Tim Stutzle is still a top-line talent, and when Shane Pinto returned from his suspension, he looked like a solid second-line option. By the end of the season, he was up on the first line between Tkachuk and Drake Batherson. Yet, without Norris, the Senators don’t have another solid middle-six center to help balance out their roster.
Zach Ostapchuk is one of the Senators’ top prospects. He’s gritty and isn’t afraid to use his size to get in your face, which makes him an ideal bottom-six player who can score garbage goals and wear down the opponent. He’s a bit more of a long shot for the middle six at this point, however, and would likely end up a winger in that scenario. Philippe Daoust is another fringe middle-six center who has more offensive upside than Ostapchuk, but has struggled with injury problems and missed most of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons.
Related: Senators Prospects Report: Stanley, Wallberg, Dyck, Halliday, & More
Stephen Halliday is probably the team’s best option right now. He’s looked fantastic in his first few games with the Belleville Senators after leaving the NCAA, scoring nine points in seven playoff games after putting up five assists in 10 games to finish the season. His upside is a bit of a mystery, but there’s a chance he could become a solid second-line center if given the right chances. He’s got good size and offensive instincts, but his skating may need some work first.
Jamieson Rees is the last center on the depth chart and is an interesting option. Acquired at the AHL Trade Deadline, he was brought in to bring some leadership and experience to a young Belleville roster. But it wasn’t that long ago that he was seen as a potential middle-six forward with the potential to climb higher. That seems like a long shot now, but his style of play isn’t that dissimilar to Greig, who thrived on the team this season.
Center depth isn’t as big of an issue as the right defence, but there are some significant gaps especially when considering Norris’ uncertain future. Adding another solid top-six prospect would give the Senators a safety net as they continue to try and build a competitive roster since it’s essential to have two strong centers to win championships.
Right Wing
It may not seem like an issue with Batherson, Mathieu Joseph, and Claude Giroux, but the Senators have surprisingly few right-wingers in their system. There are only three more players whose primary position is on the right side: Tyler Boucher, Oskar Pettersson, and Cam O’Neill. Of those three, there isn’t a lot of NHL upside, either; Boucher could become a third-line grinder if he can stay healthy, Pettersson hasn’t been able to transfer his impressive junior numbers to the next level, and O’Neill is a fringe NHL player, let alone a middle six contributor.
It’s not hard to move a left-winger over to the right side, and the Senators have done that in the past, shuffling Egor Sokolov and Dominik Kubalik over to the opposite wing, as well as moving centers Zack MacEwen and Matthew Highmore to support on the right side. But if the Senators had more right-wing options, they wouldn’t have to shuffle people around and instead allow players to remain in the position they are most comfortable. Even if it’s not a big change, mastering the mental game can be a key to success and putting someone in a place that they haven’t played before can cause some discomfort.
Of the three areas that need the most help, this is the least important since players can be moved around to little detriment. The Senators also have plenty of great left-wing prospects that could be moved around, like Angus Crookshank and Roby Jarventie. But, as fans saw with Norris’ injury and Pinto’s suspension, the Senators are lacking depth in a few key areas. If they have an opportunity to add a top winger, they should seriously consider it.
A Great Opportunity to Improve the Team
For the past several drafts, the Senators have prioritized depth players who can fill a role, whether that was a physical, grinding type, or a depth defensive specialist, while also using top picks to add proven veterans. Those decisions left the Senators with one of the worst prospect groups in the NHL and very little insurance moving forward. All it took was one season-ending injury to cause the team to implode on itself, creating the mess we see before us today.
Thankfully, a top pick in the 2024 Draft can help reverse some of those trends. There are several great forwards and defencemen available, and in the coming weeks, we’ll take a closer look at some of the best prospects that the Senators could target with their pick.
