The NHL’s free agency market opens on July 1 and many Ottawa Senators fans are hoping that Steve Staios, the team’s president of hockey operations and general manager (GM), engineers a major overhaul of the team by signing a few big-name free agents. Those fans need to temper their expectations and realize that Staios isn’t running a fantasy hockey pool. It will be very hard for him to transform the Senators’ lineup through free agent signings alone.
To be sure, there are a few free agents who, practically speaking, Staios should be chasing this summer. Even so, his shopping list can’t be very long given the many limitations he faces. Here’s a look at the challenges Staios will face in the free agent market and some suggestions about who should be on his shopping list.
Senators’ Options Limited in 2024 Free Agent Market
The biggest curb on Staios is money. The Senators’ projected cap space is only $12 million. Of that, he’ll need to put aside as much as $5 – $6 million to sign restricted free agents (RFA) Shane Pinto, Parker Kelly, Erik Brannstrom and Boris Katchouk. That doesn’t leave much for a free agent shopping spree.
Not only that, but even if he were rolling in proverbial dough, it would be a very hard sell for him to convince NHL stars to come to Ottawa. Small-market Canadian franchises rarely attract elite players and must rely on wise draft picks (or lucky ones), sound management of their prospect pipeline and a good development program. (I know what you’re thinking – the Senators can’t be accused of doing any of this very well)
Staios also needs to steer clear of what I call the “Vladimir Tarasenko Trap”. That is to say, elite players temporarily without a home who sign lucrative one-year deals with teams like Ottawa hoping to become a playoff rental with a Cup contender at the trade deadline. A lot of monkeys can sign a Tarasenko for a year. The trick is to sign them to a reasonable term during which they contribute to the club’s progress.
To sum up, Staios doesn’t have unlimited options when it comes to acquiring free agents. He will need to decide where the biggest holes are in his roster and then focus his efforts accordingly. And it’s clear that his biggest holes are in goal, on the blue line and in his bottom-six.
Choice of Free Agent Goalies Is Slim for Senators in 2024
The phrase “slim pickings” is an understatement when talking about this summer’s free agency market for twine minders. That’s because no team is going to let a good goaltender slip through its fingers.
Just ask the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Tristan Jarry and former Senators GM Pierre Dorion. It was rumoured that Dorion was pursuing Jarry hard last season and when the Penguins got wind of that they quickly signed him to a five-year contract with a healthy pay bump. In the end, Dorion had to settle for Joonas Korpisalo – a netminder with a reputation for inconsistency and very little to prove he could be a starting goaltender.
Related: Senators Could Regret Joonas Korpisalo Contract
I’ve heard suggestions that Staios should talk to Toronto Maple Leafs’ goalie Ilya Samsonov. But does anyone really think the Maple Leafs would allow the 27-year-old Russian to move on from Hog Town? They won’t, at least not until they can get a better puck stopper. And even if they did, Maple Leafs’ GM Brad Treliving isn’t sending Samsonov to an Atlantic Division rival like Ottawa.
There are other free agent goalies available this summer such as Kaapo Kahkonen of the New Jersey Devils, Kevin Lankinen of the Nashville Predators and Laurent Brossoit of the Winnipeg Jets. Yet none have been starters anywhere. Nothing in their performance numbers says they offer much of an improvement over Korpisalo. (Okay, they do work for much less money)
The reality for Staios is that there simply isn’t any free agent goaltending talent up for grabs this summer. The only way he’s got to improve his goal is through a trade. As I’ve written in previous articles, I can’t think of a better one than Jakob Chychrun for the Boston Bruins’ 2023 Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark. But he’d better hurry – the Maple Leafs are said to be sniffing around the Bruins’ cave for goaltenders!
Senators Need Right-shot Defenceman
The Senators have needed another right-shot defenceman for several years and Staios will be taking a good look at who becomes available on Canada Day. I just hope he’s not listening to the advice he’s getting from some Senators fans about which one of them he should try to sign.
Take for example the oft-heard recommendation to pursue the Dallas Stars’ Chris Tanev. I agree that he’s probably one of the most talented defencemen available in free agency this summer. What’s more, there’s no doubt he could help transform the culture of losing that has taken root in Bytown.
Yet, at 34-years-old, he’s well past his best-before date. Not only that, but he’d probably cost $5 million per season and that would eat up almost all of Staios’ budget for free agents. Then there’s the challenge of convincing him to come to Ottawa – a team that seems to be in a perpetual rebuild. I’d wager he’ll be eager to re-sign with the Stars to pursue the Stanley Cup that he missed this season.
Another bad idea is trying to acquire Tyler Myers of the Vancouver Canucks. Sure, he’s big but he’s not mean and that’s what the Senators need in front of their goal. Like Tanev, at 34-years-old he’s in the last year or two of his career. Although he’d probably play for much less than the $6 million he made this season, he doesn’t offer a future to the Senators. Much younger players are on the free agency market with contracts featuring average annual values (AAV) in the $3 – $4 million range. And why would Myers want to leave the Canucks anyway? They’re a team that in the next few years should remain a Cup contender.
Related: Senators Should Target Tyler Myers in Free Agency
If Myers and Tanev are too old and expensive, then other blueliners available in free agency are the stuff of pure fantasy. Take the almost comical suggestion that Staios should be pursuing the Florida Panthers’ Brandon Montour. The Panthers aren’t going to let him leave. They’ll see that he doesn’t by handing him more dollars every year than the $5.25 million of them that they give him now. And why would Montour want to leave sunny Florida to play in Ottawa? He’ll either want to chase a second Stanley Cup next season with the Panthers or claim the one that he didn’t get this season.
Big-name right-shot defenders aren’t realistic pick-ups for Staios this summer. But here are a few journeyman blueliners cruising the right side of the rink who could be.
Dylan DeMelo
Staios would be wise to take a serious look at the Winnipeg Jets’ Dylan DeMelo. At 31-years-old, he has a number of years ahead of him and his salary this season was a reasonable $3.5 million. He could also help steady a struggling Thomas Chabot who was never better than when he played alongside DeMelo in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons.
Matt Roy
The Los Angeles Kings’ Matt Roy is another right-hand shot who could be an intriguing option for Staios once free agency opens. A veteran of six NHL campaigns, the 29-year-old skates in the City of Angels for a reasonable $4.2 million per year. While he wouldn’t rack up a ton of points, he defends exceptionally well, is detail-oriented and would bring a steady hand to Ottawa’s defence.
Sean Walker
The Colorado Avalanche’s Sean Walker is another right-shot blueliner whose tires Staios should be kicking. At 29, he offers the Senators some runway and with six seasons under his belt he’d bring veteran experience to Ottawa’s defence corps. Coaches like his ability to join the attack and generate five-on-five offence. This season he skated under a contract with an AAV of $2.65 million, so he is affordable.
I realize that there are plenty of other right-shot defencemen available in free agency who I didn’t mention. Many readers will take me to task for leaving out pending free agent D-men the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes’ Brett Pesce, Matt Dumba of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Ilya Lyubushkin of the Maple Leafs. The question isn’t whether Staios should be thinking about these players, but rather, realistically, can he sign any of them? If so, at what price?
Right-shot defenders aren’t plentiful in the NHL and Staios is shopping for one in a seller’s market.
Senators Must Add Grit and Experience to Bottom Six
The Senators need more grit from more players than just Brady Tkachuk. Not only that, as Staios himself acknowledged, they need more veteran experience. In other words, they need character guys who play a hard 200-foot game. At the same time, they need to be young enough to offer the Senators a future of reasonable length.
Related: Senators Need More Grit From More Players
A big problem for the Senators this season was their bottom six. No team is going to be successful in the NHL without good third and fourth lines that bring some scoring punch. Ottawa’s bottom six produced a measly 9.9% of the team’s total points production this season.
Adding to the team’s woes up front is that Josh Norris had a third shoulder surgery this season and remains on the Senators’ long-term injured reserve list. He’s slated to be back for training camp, but many wonder whether he’ll ever be the star player he was expected to become. To top it all off, Staios really doesn’t have any prospects coming through his pipeline who could help support his top six or help him improve his top nine. Pierre Dorion’s mismanagement has left the Senators’ prospect cupboard bare.
So what is a GM facing such dire straits to do? Can Staios look for a solution in the free agency market? Perhaps, but as with his defence corps, none will come easy. Here are a few realistic options.
Jordan Martinook
Jordan Martinook is a pending free agent with the Carolina Hurricanes. The 31-year-old left winger would be a huge boost to Staios’ bottom six as a 10-year veteran who learned to play a hard-nosed game under the Canes’ head coach Rod Brind’Amour. He’s known for his secondary scoring and gritty style.
Not only that, but he’d also bring leadership to the Senators’ locker room and be an excellent mentor for their youngsters. With a contract featuring an AAV of $1.8 million last season, he’s affordable.
William Carrier
The Vegas Golden Knights’ William Carrier has a reputation for being an excellent support player and is considered hard to play against – exactly what the Senators need. At 29-years-old, he is an eight-year NHL veteran and a proven bottom-six forward who can kill penalties. He also knows what it takes to win the Cup having hoisted it over his head in 2023 with the Golden Knights. All of this could be had for a modest salary of $1.8 million per year.
Warren Foegele
Now chasing a Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers, 29-year-old pending free agent Warren Foegele has played seven seasons in the NHL. The 6-foot-2, 204-pound winger is young enough that he could have an impact on the Senators for years to come. He’s a tenacious, skilled winger who hits hard and is a nasty customer in front of the opposition’s net. He would give the Senators a potent top-nine. This season, the Oilers paid him $2.75 million making him a purchase that’s within Staios’ means.
There are many other free agents available for Staios to ponder as fixes for his bottom six. Readers will note that I failed to mention the Hurricanes’ Jake Guentzel and Stefan Noesen. The Golden Knights’ Jonathan Marchessault, the Florida Panthers’ Sam Reinhart and Elias Lindholm of the Canucks will all come up as free agents worthy of Staios’ attention. So too will the Bruins’ Jake DeBrusk. And some readers will even make the case that the Stars’ Matt Duchene should be wooed back to Ottawa.
No Easy Fixes for Staios in 2024 Free Agent Market
Even so, coming up with clever suggestions about which free agents Staios should be targeting is the easy part. The hard part is coming up with a list that’s realistic and recognizes the many constraints and trade-offs that Staios will face in navigating this summer’s free agency market.
