The series is far from over, but the Florida Panthers should feel pretty good about where they are heading into Game 3 at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay tomorrow night. Despite each being a one-goal game, the Panthers have controlled play and look like the better team. Here’s where they stand after their 3-2 overtime win in Game 2 against the Lightning.
Panthers Dominated at 5-on-5 in Game 2
Game 1 of this series between the Panthers and Lightning was pretty even, at least at five-on-five. The expected goals battle was nearly a 50/50 split, with a slight edge toward the Panthers. Still, they only allowed 19 shots on goal to the Lightning, an impressive number considering the firepower in the Lightning’s top six.
The Panthers have been one of the best five-on-five teams all season, so it’s no surprise they took it to another level in Game 2. They finished the game with an expected goals share (xG%) of 66.35 percent and only allowed the Lightning to generate 1.68 expected goals.
Granted, the Lightning did have some grade-A chances. Sergei Bobrovsky made a couple of ten-bell saves, including the save of the playoffs to this point when he made a whirling and twirling stop on Matt Dumba that was reminiscent of prime Dominik Hasek. But overall, the Panthers were the more threatening team.
The Panthers finished with 18 high-danger chances at five-on-five as opposed to eight for the Lightning, and they got contributions from everyone. After Sam Bennett left with an injury earlier in the game, head coach Paul Maurice placed Anton Lundell on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe, which paid massive dividends.
Not only did this trio have an xG% of 100 percent, but they combined for the game-winning goal in overtime to help put the Panthers up 2-0 in the series. If Bennett misses extended time (he did not return to the game), the Panthers could be perfectly fine if this trio plays the way they did last night.
Related: Verhaeghe Wins It for Panthers in Overtime Over Lightning
I’m not at all surprised the Panthers tilted the ice in their favor at five-on-five as much as they did yesterday. The Lightning are not the five-on-five wagon they were a couple of years ago and struggled at that game state to close the season. The Lightning had an xG% of just 47.4 percent across their final 25 games, an underwhelming number.
For context’s sake, the Panthers were at 50.8 percent over their final 25 games, though they were on fire across their last ten contests, with about a 59 xG%. The Lightning will get the last change with the series flipping to Tampa for Games 3 and 4, so head coach Jon Cooper can get more favorable matchups. But I still think the Panthers will have the edge at five-on-five.
Panthers Depth Players Helped Tilt the Ice
One advantage I gave the Panthers heading into this series was their depth, specifically up front. That showed last night, as the Panthers’ bottom six outplayed the Lightning’s and was a significant reason why they controlled play at five-on-five.
Nick Cousins only played 7:28 at five-on-five, but he led Panthers skaters in xG%, with the Panthers creating 0.88 expected goals when he was on the ice. Steven Lorentz played even less than Cousins (5:28), but the Panthers had an xG% just above 82 percent with him on the ice. Kevin Stenlund, another fourth-liner, played 8:46 and rocked an impressive 76.08 xG%. It might not seem like much, especially since these three weren’t on the ice for a goal, but it matters.
Third and fourth-liners don’t always need to score, but if they can control play as they did for the Panthers last night, it wears down the opponent. The Panthers’ bottom six won their minutes, which was crucial to them controlling the game at five-on-five.
We’ll see if that continues as the series shifts to Tampa, but the Panthers have a more talented bottom six than the Lightning. That holds true even if Lundell has to move up to a line with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe moving forward. The Panthers have a more capable fourth line than the Lightning, and the third line is still strong with Eetu Luostarainen and Evan Rodrigues. Their advantage in bottom-six depth is another reason to feel good about where they are heading into Game 3.
Bobrovsky Helping Negate Vasilevskiy Advantage
Andrei Vasilevskiy can erase many mistakes, as he did for the Lightning for much of the game last night. Fortunately for the Panthers, Bobrovsky can match him. While he didn’t face as much work as Vasilevskiy, he still made numerous timely saves to keep the game at 2-2 and to get it to overtime.
Bobrovsky only faced 23 shots, but he made 21 saves and stopped a full goal above expected. The only goals he allowed were a redirect that made it a 2-1 game and Steven Stamkos’ one-time bomb on the power play that tied it up at 2-2. Could you fault him for giving up either of those? I don’t think so.
It’s been quite the turn for Bobrovsky, who started last year’s first-round series against the Boston Bruins as the backup to Alex Lyon. Now? There’s no doubt about who the Panthers’ starter is. The Lightning are the type of opponent who can win a series solely on the back of Vasilevskiy. He did so against the Panthers in 2022 when they swept the Panthers. But with Bobrovsky playing the way he is, he negates or at least evens out the advantage Vasilevskiy gives the Lightning.
Between their five-on-five play and Bobrovsky leading the way in net, the Panthers should feel fantastic about their 2-0 series lead. It’s not like they got outplayed and won two games because their goaltending bailed them out. They’ve outplayed the Lightning. The series is still far from over, but the Panthers are in full control and right where they want to be as they head across the state to Tampa.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick