The Florida Panthers have been living on the edge the last couple of games, thanks to Igor Shesterkin’s fantastic goaltending. But what matters most is the series is tied at two apiece as it shifts back to New York for Game 5 at Madison Square Garden.
Though the Panthers split their two games at home, they should be happy with their process. They’re tilting the ice heavily in their favor at five-on-five and probably should be up 3-1 in this series if it weren’t for Shesterkin. They should be in good shape if they can start putting away the glorious five-on-five chances they’re creating.
Panthers Dominated at 5-on-5 in Games 3 & 4
Every game of this series has more or less been a coin flip, but only because of the play of Shesterkin. You could argue that the Panthers have been the better team in every game, but they really took their performance to another level in Games 3 and 4. Part of that is desperation, especially in a must-win Game 4, but head coach Paul Maurice’s tinkering with the lineup, albeit subtle, seems to have helped spark the team’s five-on-five offense.
The concerning part of the Panthers’ offensive effort at five-on-five in Games 1 and 2 was that they weren’t generating any quality chances. They averaged 1.92 expected goals per 60 minutes, a far cry from where they were in the regular season and even the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Related: Reinhart’s Overtime Goal Leads Panthers to Game 4 Win
That has changed quite a bit since the series flipped to Sunrise. Let’s start with Game 3, which saw the Panthers play their best game of the series. The Panthers generated an eye-popping 83 shot attempts at five-on-five compared to 36 for the Rangers. They also created 2.67 expected goals and held the Rangers to 1.19.
A team that outplays their opponent as significantly as that usually wins the game. The Panthers scored four goals on Shesterkin, two of which came at five-on-five, so their offense did their part. Unfortunately, Sergei Bobrovsky struggled a bit. It was one of those games where you can’t fault Bobrovsky for the goals he gave up, but a timely save or two probably gives the Panthers the win.
Still, the Panthers should have liked the way they played that game. They did nothing wrong other than lose a “coin flip” because of how good Shesterkin is. The process was there, so the hope was that it would translate to Game 4. Luckily for them, it did.
The Rangers did play pretty well in the first period, but the Panthers took control over the final 40 minutes of the game and skated the Rangers into the ground. The Panthers had 14 high-danger chances at five-on-five over the final two periods compared to two for the Rangers.
Florida also generated 2.65 expected goals at five-on-five compared to 1 for the Rangers, including overtime. Over Games 3 and 4, the Panthers averaged 3.18 expected goals per 60 minutes, so the quality has been there. What’s lacking is the finish.
The Panthers are getting most of their scoring via the power play (taking a page out of the Rangers’ book, perhaps?). They only had one five-on-five goal in Game 4, so that still needs to improve. Eventually, you’d think the dam breaks and the Panthers score a flood of five-on-five goals, but Shesterkin is a different animal.
Maurice’s Line Changes Have Helped
Maurice hasn’t made many changes to his lineup this series, but he did tinker with his line combos ahead of Game 3. Those moves have paid dividends and have helped the team tilt the ice in their favor at five-on-five.
Vladimir Tarasenko has moved down the lineup to the third line, giving the Panthers a top line of Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. Making up the second line are Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues.
The Verhaeghe, Barkov, and Reinhart line has tilted the ice the last two games, with the Panthers having a 29-11 shot attempt advantage and controlling 69.2 percent of the expected goals (xG%) with them on the ice. Pretty much every line with Barkov centering it has crushed it this postseason, so it’s no surprise they were dominant in Games 3 and 4.
Tkachuk, Bennett and Rodrigues was a seldomly used combo by Maurice during the regular season, so he was essentially trying something new when the stakes mattered most. It was a risky move to a certain extent, but Maurice seems to have pushed the right button by putting these three together.
This trio has been even better than the current Barkov line, which is saying something. The Panthers have out-attempted the Rangers 36-10 with Tkachuk, Bennett and Rodrigues on the ice while posting an 82.6 xG%. They only have one goal to show for their efforts, but they should find the back of the net more often if they keep posting these numbers. They’ve truly been the driving force behind the Panthers finding their five-on-five offense over the last two games.
Tkachuk and Bennett did play together quite a bit during the regular season, and Rodrigues has always been an underrated play driver at five-on-five. It’s also probably not surprising they’ve found success as a combo. And though the sample sizes remain quite small, I like the chances of both these top two lines continuing their success in New York for Game 5.
Bobrovsky Needs To Be a Bit Better
The Panthers are doing mostly everything right through four games. Though they need to finish better at five-on-five, the chance creation is now there. They’ve held the Rangers’ power play to below 10 percent, while theirs is clicking just above 33 percent.
The only area where the Panthers need better is net. Bobrovsky was excellent in the team’s Game 1 shutout, but he’s been thoroughly outplayed by Shesterkin since then. He was better in Game 4 last night, but the Panthers also made life easy for him by limiting the Rangers’ chances, especially in the latter two periods.
With the way Shesterkin is playing, the Panthers will probably need Bobrovsky to win them a game over the final three contests of this series. We know he’s capable of it based on his Game 1 performance, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Panthers have another low-scoring game such as that where they need Bobrovsky to seal the deal. He was nominated for the Vezina for a reason, and he’ll probably need to show why before this series concludes.
Otherwise, the Panthers should be relatively happy with where they are in the series. They probably should be up 3-1, but their process improved significantly in Games 3 and 4. If that continues and they find more finishing ability at five-on-five, they should take the series.
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