The Florida Panthers did what they needed to do in New York. They split the first two games of the Eastern Conference Final and return to Florida with the series against the Rangers tied at 1-1. Now, they have a chance to build on it at home. Even though the series is knotted up at 1-1, the Panthers have some things to work on. Let’s look at where the series stands after two games, what they’ve done well, and what they need to do to return to New York with a 3-1 series lead.
Panthers’ 5-on-5 Offense Needs to Show Up
The Panthers haven’t been the dominant five-on-five team they were in the regular season for most of the playoffs. But they still had the edge over the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins in their first two postseason series. However, that has not been the case against the Rangers through two games.
Defense hasn’t been a problem for the Panthers. They’ve been getting the job done in their own end. It’s their five-on-five offense that needs to show up, and soon. The Panthers have just two five-on-five goals through two games, and one of those was an own goal off the stick of Alexis Lafreniere.
It’s not like the Panthers have tested Igor Shesterkin all that much through two games, either. They’re averaging just 1.92 expected goals per 60 minutes through two games, something that needs significant improvement in Game 3 tomorrow afternoon.
Related: Rangers Even Series With Overtime Winner vs. Panthers
The good news is that everyone is healthy, so head coach Paul Maurice can tinker with his line combos if he wants. The Vladimir Tarasenko, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart line has been dominant through two games of this series, posting a 70.81 expected goals share (xG%). I’d be surprised if Maurice broke them up, but there are other options.
Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell and Carter Verhaeghe were great through the first two series of the playoffs, but they’ve been relatively quiet through two games against the Rangers. They have a 44.22 xG% and have been out-chanced 10-15, so don’t be surprised if Maurice returns to having Sam Bennett center Tkachuk and Verhaeghe.
Tkachuk, Bennett and Verhaeghe were a force during the regular season, totaling a 58.17 xG% in about 465 minutes together. The Panthers also outscored teams 30-21 with them on the ice, and with them needing a spark at five-on-five this series, this seems like the best option Maurice has to give the team a different look at that game state.
Bobrovsky Matching Shesterkin
Sergei Bobrovsky’s playoff numbers coming into this series weren’t great, but there wasn’t too much concern on my part. He faced an average of 24 shots on goal through the first two series, so the Panthers were making life pretty easy for him.
I wouldn’t say life has been as easy through two games against the Rangers. Bobrovsky has saved 53 of 55 shots and has stopped 4.37 goals above expected, but his team is still doing a good job limiting chances in front of him, especially at five-on-five.
There’s a reason Bobrovsky was nominated for the Vezina Trophy this season. And while the numbers didn’t necessarily back that up through two series, he has been excellent to start the Eastern Conference Final. Even though the Rangers had just 12 shots on goal through two periods of Game 1, he faced some work in the third period and made timely saves to lead the Panthers to a shutout win.
However, the Panthers probably can’t rely on him to give up only 1-2 goals a game every night. They will need to score much more than they have, so again, their five-on-five offense needs to step up and start creating more quality chances that find the back of the net.
Panthers Penalty Kill Winning the Battle So Far
At least through two games, the Panthers’ penalty kill has stifled the Rangers’ power play. How long that lasts remains to be seen, but this was a key factor for them in coming away with the series win. And so far, you can’t ask for much more than what their penalty killers have provided.
The Panthers have not given up a power-play goal and have only allowed two high-danger chances while down a man. Perhaps they took notes from the Carolina Hurricanes’ ultra-aggressive penalty kill and how the Rangers burned them because, so far, the Panthers haven’t been as aggressive as the Hurricanes were when down a man.
Because the Rangers are so quick to move the puck on the power play, they exposed the open passing lanes the Hurricanes left by aggressively attacking the puck carrier. So Florida’s penalty killers have been much more passive than the Hurricanes.
At least through two games, the Panthers’ more conservative approach on the penalty kill has helped keep the Rangers to the perimeter on the power play. That’s made life easier for Bobrovsky in that regard, and as they say, your best penalty killer has to be your goaltender. The Rangers will likely adjust heading into Game 3, but for now, the Panthers are taking the Rangers’ biggest asset away. They should be in good shape if they can figure it out at five-on-five.
Panthers 5-on-5 Defense Getting the Job Done
It’s hard to complain about the Panthers’ defensive effort through two games. How they defend at five-on-five matches up well against how the Rangers want to play off the rush on the counter-attack. In Game 1, the Panthers completely neutralized the Rangers’ rush attack. They clogged up the neutral zone and took passing lanes away, not allowing the Rangers to do anything in transition.
The Rangers did make some adjustments in Game 2 and were quicker with their breakout passes, allowing them to create more chances through transition and off the rush. But even then, the Rangers only had five high-danger chances at five-on-five through regulation.
With the series shifting to Florida for Games 3 and 4, the Panthers should continue to excel on defense since Maurice will now have the last change and can get the matchups he wants. What this will come down to for the Panthers is their five-on-five offense getting going. If it can’t, they might be in some trouble.
The Panthers are in a good spot heading back to Sunrise. They were this close to having a 2-0 series lead, but regardless, they got the job done by taking a game in New York. Now, they have to take advantage of home ice and come away with the series lead before heading back to New York for Game 5.
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