The Pittsburgh Penguins are in an ideal spot heading into free agency, despite having to sort out their goaltending position. The team has over $20.2 million in cap space available heading into this off-season.
On top of this, they have quite a few contracts coming off the books, allowing the new management group flexibility in terms of roster construction and cap allocation. However, as we have seen before, you must be careful about overspending, especially come the opening day of free agency on July 1.
This is likely one of the reasons that Fenway Sports Group brought in Kyle Dubas to steer the ship. He has a proven track record of finding diamonds in the rough in free agency with players like Ondrej Kase, Calle Jarnkrok, and, most notably, Michael Bunting.
Related: Penguins’ 2023 Free Agent Targets
Also, recently reported by Michelle Cretchiolo on Twitter (@Pensinsidescoop), Dubas says they are looking to add depth forwards.
Dubas’ comments signal that this is the likely direction they go, trying to sign undervalued players in free agency to supplement their roster.
Who Should the Penguins Buy Low On?
In order to compete for a Cup, the Penguins should be looking to buy low on players in free agency who can provide supplemental offence. The team doesn’t need high-end players from free agency, as they have that in abundance. Also, the cost of free agency can be way too high, especially in a year that is seen as a weak free-agent class. Cap space is a commodity and should be treated as such, getting left to add in trades if necessary. That’s especially true if it’s possible to find a team willing to retain salary to make the money work.
Connor Brown
At 29 years old, Connor Brown likely is what he is: a competent middle-six winger who can play both special teams duties and score roughly 35-45 points a year. However, one issue that could drive his price down is that he is coming off a season where he played four games due to an ACL tear that required him to have surgery.
Some teams could be scared off of him due to the potential risks. If this happens, the Penguins should take full advantage. Over his entire career, his points-per-game average is 0.48. Over an 82-game schedule, that puts him at 39 points. On the Penguins roster last season, that pacing would have placed him ninth in points per game and eighth in points.
It’s tough to pinpoint a number, given the injury, but his last contract held a cap hit of $3.6 million after he totaled 43 points in 71 games with the Ottawa Senators. Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff has pointed out that due to Brown missing so much time on LTIR last season, he is in a unique situation that allows teams to sign for a league minimum ($775,000) with performance bonuses attached. This would allow the Penguins to mitigate the risk associated with signing him and get him inked to a cost-effective deal.
Pius Suter
Coming off a down year, centre Pius Suter is a textbook case of a player who should be undervalued in free agency. He reached the lowest point total of his career, scoring only 24 points in 79 games with the Detroit Red Wings. This comes after scoring 27 in 55 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2020-21 and 36 in 82 games in 2021-22 with the Red Wings. Surprisingly, 14 of those were goals, which is on par with his previous totals of 14 and 15.
This could indicate that his drop in production had more to do with his linemates than himself, as he was featured on three of the Red Wings’ ten best lines in terms of expected goals percentage (xG%). He also ranked eighth in expected goals for per 60 minutes out of 18 forwards who played over 100 minutes for the Red Wings. Again, this could indicate that his offensive output would have been higher in a better role.
His last contract carried a cap hit of $3.25 million, but given his lack of production last season, this number should go down. If it does, he could be a useful player for the Penguins to grab in free agency as a depth option at centre.
Andreas Johnsson
Andreas Johnsson is a 28-year-old winger who has had a rocky last few seasons. In 2019-20, he produced 21 points in 43 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and after battling through leg injuries, he was finally sidelined in Feb. 2020 for six months with a knee injury. That off-season, he was shipped to the New Jersey Devils, where he produced only 11 points in 50 games that next year. The following season, however, he saw a resurgence, scoring 35 points in 71 games.
Last season, Johnsson didn’t make the Devils’ roster and played for their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, the Utica Comets. In the AHL, he played in 36 games, scoring nine goals and 21 assists for 30 points. He was then traded to the San Jose Sharks, where he played 11 games, producing three assists.
Johnsson can play well when in the lineup. Despite two poor seasons, he still averages 0.45 points per game over his career. His offensive potential alone should make him a shoo-in for a contract. His next deal will likely come in well under his previous $3.4 million cap hit, making him an ideal candidate for a buy-low offer on a one or two-year contract.
*All stats and information from MoneyPuck and NaturatStatTrick
*All Contract figures from CapFriendly