In this edition of our 2023-24 Philadelphia Flyers player grades, we look at 25-year-old forward Noah Cates. The part-time center, part-time winger took a little bit of time to find his groove, but once he did he was a great commodity for the Orange and Black. How did he perform over the full season?
Cates Settles for Bottom-Six Role
In 2021-22, Cates spent most of his time in the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) for his senior campaign. He performed well, scoring 24 points and accumulating a plus-4 rating in 37 contests, but he did nothing to suggest that he would be one of the Flyers’ top-six centers the following season.
Without Sean Couturier in the lineup due to injury for the entire 2022-23 season, someone had to take a step up and fill that spot. That player was Cates. Even though he wasn’t exactly young at 24, being a rookie and facing top competition was a challenge he accepted. At even strength, his 2.67 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) was one of the best on the team despite going up against top-end forwards.
A 48.2 expected goals percentage (xGF%) on his part wasn’t the greatest, but it was sixth-best among forwards for the Flyers. Sure, 38 points over 82 games weren’t necessarily the best offensive output for a top-six center, but he took strides in his defensive game. Shining on a weak Philadelphia team, he earned himself a two-year extension worth $5.25 million total.
In 2023-24, Cates’ role completely shifted despite the departure of fellow centerman Kevin Hayes. Instead of being a shutdown center on the first or second line, he was bumped down to the third line to start the season. Rotating between the third and fourth lines, he had some inconsistency issues.
In that time, Cates had just four points in 21 contests, ranking fifth among forwards in xGF% at 53.7 percent. Toward the end of that run, he made the switch to wing. As soon as that happened, he suffered an injury on Nov. 25 that kept him out of the lineup until Jan. 15. This ailment set up a brilliant stretch of games for him, finding his niche in the process.
From the time he returned from injury until the end of the season, Cates had five goals and nine assists for 14 points in 38 contests and the third-best xGF% on the team among forwards at 62.4 percent. His offensive and defensive involvement saw drastic improvement, putting up an elite 1.99 xGA/60 and ranking sixth in points per 60 on the team at 1.64, ahead of players like Joel Farabee, Tyson Foerster, and a healthier Couturier.
This type of role might be Cates’ future. He’s not exactly fit to be a top-six player on a team with playoff aspirations like the Flyers ended up being, but he is a terrific bottom-six forward. His switch to the wing brought out the best in him, being one of Philadelphia’s most consistent and reliable players.
While Cates isn’t a good offensive player considering his below-average skating, shooting, and passing ability, he loves to compete during a play and is rock-solid on defense. It’s the type of style that coaches adore and playoff teams can’t get enough of. If he provided what he did after his injury over a full season, he very well could have been a sneaky Selke Trophy candidate.
Cates was at his best on the left side of forwards Ryan Poehling and Garnet Hathaway, which became the Flyers’ go-to shutdown line that also provided offense in key moments. Cates himself had a five-game point streak in April, finishing with a team-leading five points during the month. Though he saw an ice-time reduction of 3:58 per game from 2022-23 to 2023-24, the 25-year-old was arguably as good as ever.
Cates’ Final Grade
Since Cates had a bit of an easier role in the bottom six, he shouldn’t have a better grade than top-six players such as Foerster, Morgan Frost, and Owen Tippett who all did well in that spot. A B-minus grade seems just right.
Related: Flyers 2023-24 Player Grades: Tyson Foerster
The value of a great third- or fourth-line forward cannot be understated in the NHL. Cates, whose contract expires after the 2024-25 season, will have to back up his play once more. If he can, the Flyers will have a choice to make on whether he should be a part of the rebuild or they should cash in on his worth in a trade.