The Nashville Predators limped into the All-Star break having lost five of their last six games and being outscored 26-15 in their last eight. They have a 26-23-2 record – good for fifth place in the Central Division – and they are currently five points out of a playoff spot.
It’s time for a reality check. The Predators are what they are: a .500 hockey team in the early stages of a rebuild. Their goal in the final 31 games this season should not be to make the playoffs. Rather, it should be what this season was supposed to be about all along: to set the franchise up for long-term success by determining which players are critical to the team’s future – and which ones are not.
Trust the Process
The 2023-24 Predators were never supposed to be an overnight success. This season was supposed to be an opportunity for first-year general manager Barry Trotz to get a more complete look at a roster containing a number of young, unproven players who, in some cases, don’t even have a full NHL season under their belts.
“They’ve got lots to prove,” Trotz said in September. “To me, it’s about players proving that they can have really good careers, not proving that they can play games in the National Hockey League.”
There are inherent growing pains that accompany this process as young players find their legs, build their confidence, and adjust to the rigors of a full, 82-game season – and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. With 10 rostered players currently on expiring contracts, there are plenty of roster spots up for grabs. Competition breeds excellence, and Trotz wants his players to earn their keep.
“I want to see players’ ceilings,” Trotz said. “There’s lots of competition. In this league, there’s always someone coming… That’s what good drafting and good development does.”
Learn From the 2022-23 Season
The back half of the Predators season saw plenty of ups and downs, from deadline moves to season-ending injuries and everything in between. It would have been easy to look at the moves the Preds made at the 2023 trade deadline and assume that they were going to struggle down the stretch and tumble in the standings to get a higher draft pick. Instead, they stunned the hockey world by winning games and remaining in the playoff race until the season’s final days.
Necessity breeds opportunity, and the trades and injuries to the veteran core afforded Nashville’s young prospects the opportunity to play at the NHL level more – and in some cases, sooner – than they otherwise would have. Young players like Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista, and others, who were first expected to be temporary call-ups, ended up becoming key contributors to the Predators’ offense and making names for themselves in the process.
“It was a strong message that the young guys have a lot of the right DNA going forward,” Trotz said. “There was also a message that… you can find ways to win even if it looks like you’re a little bit undermanned or up against a superior opponent. There is a commitment level, a connection level, physically and emotionally between all those players that was a great sign for the future.”
The Predators ultimately fell short of the playoffs last season, but their strong push down the stretch was the result of young players being elevated into more prominent roles with minimal pressure on them to actually make a legitimate postseason run. The team needs to recapture this mindset now and focus on developing for the future.
Let the Kids Play
The young players’ success at the end of 2022-23 was impressive, but a 20-game stretch is hardly enough to determine a player’s long-term outlook. Trotz, wary of the possibility of striking “fool’s gold” down the stretch last season, has tempered his optimism with patience in allowing the young players to continue to develop and reach their full potential.
“If you get too old of a team, I think you lose some of that enthusiasm and some of that fire that you need for an 82-game schedule,” Trotz said at the start of the 2023 offseason. “If you get too young [of a team], you can get overwhelmed and not have the guidance that you need to have success in this league.”
There may be a good blend of youth and veteran leadership on the Predators roster, but it’s clear that the workload hasn’t been distributed evenly. Half of the team’s 151 total goals have been scored by five players – Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons, and Roman Josi – who also rank among the top 10 on the Predators roster in total ice time this season.
The All-Star break could not have come at a better time for the team’s veteran core, whom head coach Andrew Brunette described as “hitting the wall” because of the demanding nature of his offensive system. The reality is that Brunette is relying too much on the veterans and denying his younger players opportunities to contribute key minutes in various situations. As a result, the former are visibly burnt out, while the latter are stagnating in their development. That needs to change if the Predators’ management and coaching staff want to accurately evaluate the composition of their roster.
In Trotz’s mind, creating a path for his young players is not about getting rid of the veterans standing in their way; it’s about surrounding them with the right veterans who can help them develop their skills and their confidence. Trotz built a team around those veterans, but the onus is now on Brunette and his staff to use them properly.
Give Juuse Saros a Break
From Pekka Rinne to Juuse Saros, the Predators have become synonymous with elite goaltending over the last decade. The 2023-24 season hasn’t been Saros’ best, but his entire body of work speaks for itself. Since 2019, he has the third-most wins (128), the fifth-best save percentage (.917), the sixth-most shutouts (15), and the 11th-best goals-against average (2.66) among goalies to play in 150 or more games. He ranks fourth in regulation plus overtime wins (114), and he has the third-most starts with a save percentage of .900 or better (152).
In short, we already know what Saros can do. There is no reason for him to have the second-most starts (40) through 51 games this season. It’s time to make some tough decisions with the future in mind – namely, trade backup Kevin Lankinen for a decently hefty return and recall top goaltending prospect Yaroslav Askarov from the American Hockey League. Askarov has posted a 17-6-1 record, a .921 save percentage, and a 2.17 goals-against average in 24 games with the Milwaukee Admirals this season. If he really is Nashville’s future between the pipes, getting reps against NHL competition in a low-pressure environment will be far more beneficial than anything he can do at the AHL level down the stretch this season.
Related: Askarov vs. Saros: Who’s the Predators’ Long-Term Starter?
The bottom line? The only way to truly see young, unproven players’ ceilings is to actually give them legitimate opportunities to prove themselves. It’s time to let go of the playoff dream this season, take the physical pressure off the veteran players and the mental pressure off the young ones, give the latter more meaningful opportunities, and treat the final 31 games of the season as an open audition for the future.