Though the 2024 Stanley Cup champion has yet to be crowned, the teams that have already been eliminated from the NHL Playoffs have started their offseason planning. The Colorado Avalanche are staring down a busy offseason on the heels of another disappointing playoff exit, this time at the hands of the Dallas Stars in the second round.
Beyond the NHL Entry Draft, the Avalanche must address their collection of pending free agents and make decisions on who should be re-signed, and who should be walked to the door. The NHL’s salary cap limit is projected to rise to $87.7 million next season and could potentially reach $92 million ahead of the 2025-26 campaign.
The Avalanche have nine free agents up for renewal this summer, but their offseason plans will be determined by two key players currently under contract in captain Gabriel Landeskog and winger Valeri Nichushkin. Assuming both Landeskog ($7 million cap hit) and Nichushkin ($6.125 million) are unavailable (for two wildly different reasons), the Avalanche are projected to have $22.9 million in cap space with 13 players under contract (seven forwards, four defensemen, and two goalies).
If one or both return at some point during the 2024-25 regular season, the Avalanche must have the cap room to move them to the active roster for cap purposes. If that is how their situations play out, the team will only have $9.8 million to sign (or promote) at least three more forwards and two defenders. The future of those two players significantly affects how the Avalanche do business in both the short- and long-term, and the front office should prepare for at least one of them to return during the upcoming season.
Now, let’s dive into the Avalanche’s free agents. Each player is accompanied by Evolving Hockey’s free agent contract projections. These projections are based on historical comparisons which take age, position, production, and whether a player is an unrestricted (UFA) or restricted (RFA) free agent into account.
The projections are presented with the most probable term (in years) and average annual value (AAV) of a given free agent’s next contract, though extenuating circumstances (such as the team’s cap crunch) may have an impact on the final terms of a deal.
Restricted Free Agents
The Avalanche only have a single RFA on the books this offseason, though he is arguably the most important pending free agent on the roster for the team’s long-term competitive aspirations.
Casey Mittelstadt, Center/Left Wing
Projected Contract: Three years, $5.78 million AAV
The acquisition of Casey Mittelstadt at the trade deadline looks to have finally cemented the second-line center position for the Avalanche since the departure of Nazem Kadri during the 2022 offseason.
Mittelstadt was eased into top-six duty as he got acclimatized to his new locale, tallying 10 points in 18 regular-season games with the Avalanche while playing under 16 minutes per night. His usage jumped to over 17 minutes per game in the playoffs (sixth among Avalanche forwards) and scored nine points in 11 games, flashing the playmaking ability that made him such a coveted trade target.
The Avalanche must extend Mittelstadt a qualifying offer worth $2.6 million to retain his RFA rights as he is coming off a three-year bridge deal worth $2.5 million annually. He is eligible for salary arbitration but is set to become a UFA next summer should he not agree to an extension or only agree to a one-year deal.
According to Evolving Hockey’s projections, there is a 70% chance that Mittelstadt will sign a three-to-five-year contract with an AAV between $5.78 million and $5.99 million. That is a very narrow range of compensation which should give the front office greater certainty in negotiations and roster-building this summer.
Unrestricted Free Agents
The Avalanche have five notable UFA forwards and three UFA defensemen needing new contracts for next season. Forward Zach Parise announced his retirement prior to the start of the 2024 Playoffs, so he is not included in this section.
Andrew Cogliano, Left Wing
Projected Contract: One year, $1.13 million AAV
While Andrew Cogliano has been a reliable and versatile contributor across his three-year tenure with the Avalanche, his future with the organization is unknown. The veteran forward turns 37 next month, has a young family, and has suffered several serious injuries in recent seasons, including a broken finger during the 2022 Playoffs and a fractured neck during the 2023 Playoffs.
Cogliano played under nine minutes per game during the 2024 Playoffs (13th out of 15 forwards), though he was second among Avalanche forwards in average shorthanded ice time behind only Yakov Trenin.
Cogliano won the Stanley Cup in 2022, so the prospect of chasing an elusive championship should not be figured into his calculations. The decision to come back for another season is his and if he returns, his cap hit cannot be much more than the $825,000 he earned this past season given the Avalanche’s looming cap crunch.
Jonathan Drouin, Left Wing/Right Wing
Projected Contract: Four years, $4.74 million AAV
The Avalanche’s biggest UFA decision comes in the form of playmaking winger Jonathan Drouin, who set new career-highs in both assists (37) and points (56) this season after signing a one-year, show-me deal with the hopes of reigniting his stagnating career. Drouin may have priced himself out of Colorado with his offensive outburst, but his history with junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon could persuade him into taking a discount to stay in a positive situation.
Evolving Hockey’s projections offer a 73% chance that Drouin will sign a contract between three to five years in length which carries an AAV between $4.32 and $5.27 million. There is greater variance in Drouin’s potential contract negotiations, but he is one player who I would guess comes in below those estimates due to the allure of long-term comfort and fit in the lineup.
The Avalanche may not have much leverage due to Nichushkin’s absence, which gives Drouin the opportunity to highlight that his presence is needed in a lineup that will be missing arguably its third-best forward. I expect Drouin’s contract to be a priority, and that he returns in 2024-25 at below market value.
Brandon Duhaime, Right Wing/Left Wing
Projected Contract: Four years, $1.92 million AAV
Brandon Duhaime – another addition at the 2024 Trade Deadline – didn’t figure too heavily in the Avalanche’s postseason and ranked 14th out of 15 forwards in average ice time. He doesn’t offer much offense (20 career goals in 211 games) but he ranks seventh among qualified NHL forwards (minimum two games played) in hits per-60-minutes during the 2024 Playoffs.
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Duhaime’s projected AAV drops to under $1.3 million if the contract is only two years long, which seems more in line with what a 27-year-old depth winger with a career-high of 17 points (in 2021-22) would command on the open market. He may be inclined to test the open market with what could be his last chance to earn a more significant payday as a speedy, physical winger.
I think that he is fifty-fifty to return next season given that the Avalanche can find cheaper depth options in free agency or promote their own budding prospects from within, especially with the cap constraints at hand.
Joel Kiviranta, Right Wing/Left Wing
Projected Contract: One year, $0.835 million AAV
Joel Kiviranta was a bottom-six option during the playoffs and ranked 10th in average ice time among Avalanche forwards, including playing an average of one minute on the penalty kill over eight postseason appearances (sixth among forwards). He didn’t score much (four goals and 11 points in 64 regular-season and playoff games), but he could be deployed in a number of situations.
Given that they are only one year apart, two things that Kiviranta has over someone like Duhaime is that he will likely be cheaper as he earned slightly more than the league minimum salary last season and is much more disciplined. He only earned 12 penalty minutes last season in 56 games compared to the 70 that Duhaime earned in 80 games. Expect him to return as a tweener option for both the NHL and the American Hockey League (AHL).
Yakov Trenin, Left Wing/Center
Projected Contract: Four years, $3.5 million AAV
Trenin was the prototypical trade deadline rental with his size, positional versatility, and ability to play in all situations making him a valuable utility forward for the Avalanche.
Trenin struggled to generate much offense in a more subdued defensive role in Colorado compared to his top-six deployment with the Nashville Predators, only scoring three goals and four points in 26 appearances across the regular season and playoffs.
General managers will be salivating over his penalty-killing prowess and underrated offensive touch, with the Russian forward scoring at least 12 goals in each of the past three seasons. At only 27 years old, Trenin is in the prime of his career and will likely seek a hefty raise on the $1.7 million AAV he earned over the past two seasons, making him too expensive for the Avalanche to re-sign.
Jack Johnson, Defenseman
Projected Contract: One year, $1.31 million AAV
At 37 years old, Jack Johnson‘s time in the NHL may be coming to a close. Over an 18-year NHL career, he has accumulated nearly 1,200 career games and won the 2022 Stanley Cup with the Avalanche. He’s still a capable bottom-pair defender with 16 points last season, but the Avalanche may decide to pivot towards the future when it comes to constructing their third pair going forward.
Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Josh Manson and Samuel Girard make up an enviable top-four group with the likes of Sean Behrens and Sam Malinski pushing for full-time roles in the NHL, both of which offer more offensive upside going forward. Johnson looked behind the pace at times this season and struggled with defensive reads at key moments.
Working in Johnson’s favor is his experience, familiarity with the Avalanche, and minuscule cap hit ($775,000 last season), but his time in Colorado may be coming to an end if he asks for much more than league minimum.
Caleb Jones, Defenseman
Projected Contract: One year, $892,000 AAV
Caleb Jones is another defender who is out of contract this summer. The 26-year-old played in 25 games with the Avalanche this season (five points) while drawing a salary worth slightly more than the league minimum.
Jones played in three playoff games but averaged the fewest minutes per game of the seven Avalanche defensemen to appear in the postseason. The jury is out on how much trust head coach Jared Bednar has in him as a full-time NHL rearguard, but the fact that he has nearly 250 games of NHL experience and can play both sides gives him some desirability as a seventh defenseman.
Whether that is with the Avalanche or elsewhere remains to be seen, though I can see him returning to Colorado for the 2024-25 season.
Sean Walker, Defenseman
Projected Contract: Five years, $5.04 million AAV
While the Avalanche would love to ink Sean Walker to a long-term deal and bolster their already talented defensive core, the 29-year-old is a right-handed blueliner who is able to regularly transition the puck up the ice. This makes him one of the most attractive commodities in free agency, and will likely cause him to price himself out of returning to Colorado.
Though Walker underwhelmed in the playoffs (zero points in 11 games and a minus-5 rating), he scored seven points in 18 regular-season games after the trade deadline and gave the Avalanche the ability to roll out three dynamic pairs. Multiple teams around the league are entering the offseason with an eye towards improving their blue line contingent, and Walker is poised to be one of the most sought-after defenders on the open market.
2024 NHL Offseason Promises Change for the Avalanche
The Avalanche roster promises to look very different come the start of training camp due to a number of free agents, dwindling cap space, and the issues that come with the resolution of Landeskog and Nichushkin’s respective situations.
If the front office can maneuver around the cap obstacles which lie ahead, the Avalanche should challenge for the Stanley Cup again in 2024-25. If not, the back end of the MacKinnon and Makar era could be derailed by a combination of unforeseen circumstances and bad bets.
Data courtesy of CapFriendly and the NHL.
