We are only 16 games away from the 2024 NHL Playoffs, and now is when coaches experiment with different line combinations. The Toronto Maple Leafs experiments are in full force due to injuries. Head coach Sheldon Keefe lost both Mitch Marner and Calle Jarnkrok to injuries within a week of each other, which means that the top line is missing their first and second options. Keefe has had to get creative, which should make it much easier to adjust when injuries occur in the postseason.
I figured this is a good time to look at the roster and attempt to predict the lineup they will use in Game 1. With the moves general manager (GM) Brad Treliving made at the deadline, he gave Keefe a few more depth options, which should come in handy.
Maple Leafs Forward Group
McMann – Matthews – Marner
Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander
Knies – Tavares – Jarnkrok
Dewar – Kampf – Reaves
This was very difficult to put together. There are so many different possible combinations and a few players that should be in the lineup, but I went with a tougher lineup, assuming that the Maple Leafs will play either the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers in the first round.
The first line has two of three players that shouldn’t surprise; Auston Matthews and Marner are locks and will, hopefully, be able to lead the club to the Stanley Cup Final. For the third member of that line, I added Bobby McMann – he has the makings to be the next Zach Hyman. When Hyman played with Matthews and Marner, he was the one who went into the corners and dug for pucks. He won net-front battles and scored the garbage goals that the team needed. Well, they have tried to replace him over the years, and I think McMann can do that for this line.
Related: Nick Robertson Gets Shot with Maple Leafs as Jarnkrok on LTIR
The second line is a familiar trio. William Nylander, Max Domi, and Tyler Bertuzzi have the tools to be great together. They have shown that when they have played together this season; the only issue is that they tend to struggle defensively. However, Keefe could give them support by putting their best defensive defence pairing with them as much as possible. Ultimately, this line will need to work hard and backcheck to close gaps and force their opponent to make mistakes. They have the speed and skill to do that, but there could be some growing pains.
The third line is the most interesting to me. The combination of Matthew Knies, John Tavares, and Jarnkrok has the potential to be very strong together. Keefe and his coaching staff have experimented with Tavares as the third-line center, and it has worked very well. The only caveat is that he needs players with speed who are defensively sound beside him, which this line has. Jarnkrok and Knies are hard-working forecheckers who can win puck battles and get the puck to Tavares in the slot area. Jarnkrok is now the new Alex Kerfoot in the sense that he has the full trust of the coaching staff and does the little things right. He will make up for any of Tavares’ struggles, especially regarding speed and getting back quickly.
As for Knies, it is simple. He tends to play better against weaker competition; on this third line, he would be playing the opposition’s third line, which may not carry as much skill as the Maple Leafs do. This line could also see Nick Robertson on it if there is an injury or a shake-up needed if the team is missing depth scoring.
Lastly, the fourth line is simply a fourth line. The mix of Connor Dewar and David Kampf makes the team much more defensively sound. These two could be the best defensive forwards on the team, which will help win games late. Their third member is Ryan Reaves, whose resume speaks for itself. He isn’t in the lineup to score goals or lock down games; he is there to throw his body around and keep the opposition honest. In a seven-game series, teams start to dislike each other more and more with each passing game. On top of that, the Maple Leafs will either face the Bruins or the Panthers, who have some angry history, which is why a player like Reaves is important.
Pontus Holmberg, Noah Gregor, and Robertson would be healthy scratches used in case of injuries or when things aren’t going too well, and the team needs to change things up.
Maple Leafs’ Playoff Blue Line
Rielly – Lyubushkin
Benoit – McCabe
Edmundson – Liljegren
The defensive core doesn’t change a ton from what we have seen lately. I have been very critical of T.J. Brodie this season. He seems to have lost his game, although some would argue that his first pass is better than other players on the blue line. He is a defensive-minded defenceman, and if he can’t play that role well, then he doesn’t deserve to be in the lineup. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that he will find himself in the press box. I think his time should be given to someone else who has proven they want it more.
With that, the first pairing is the same as what we see in real-time: Morgan Rielly and Ilya Lyubushkin. Lyubushkin gives Rielly the freedom to make the rush with the puck or join it and get down deep in the offensive zone when needed. In the past, defencemen similar to Lyubushkin have proven to be the best partners for Rielly, and that shows. Especially in the playoffs, it is important to have him jump into the rush, and knowing that he has a partner who won’t pinch down is what could help the Maple Leafs win games.
The second pairing has been my favourite this season. Simon Benoit and Jake McCabe have been unreal. They have provided that shutdown, physical, hard-to-play-against defence style that the Maple Leafs have needed for some time. In the playoffs, the game becomes way more physical, and you need players who won’t shy away, and this pairing won’t. They will defend their teammates and goalie, and they can be trusted to stay back and only join the rush when they have support behind them.
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The last pairing is with newcomer Joel Edmundson and Timothy Liljegren. This duo has been good since the acquisition of Edmundson just days before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. Together, they bring a mix of what the first and second pairings can offer. Liljegren can join the rush and keep the puck moving while also getting in shooting lanes and breaking up the cycle. As for Edmundson, he does the opposite as his defence partner; he is very good at blocking shots and hitting the opponent while also closing on gaps and shutting down the cycle, but he can also shoot from the point and, if needed, will be a support when the team makes a rush. This is an ideal third pairing; they have the skills to be a two-way pairing but will most likely have a more defensive focus when the playoffs start.
Connor Timmins, Mark Giordano, and Brodie will be the extras. Of the three, Brodie is the one who should make his way into the lineup for Benoit or Liljegren.
Maple Leafs Goaltenders
Samsonov
Woll
The battle between the pipes seems to be coming to an end. Ilya Samsonov has been given a stretch of games, with Joseph Woll only playing against the Bruins in the last two weeks. Samsonov has been playing very well over the last few weeks and could be on the road to being named the starter for the first game of the playoffs. My decision to put Samsonov as the starter was also influenced by his ability to get the Maple Leafs past the first round last season. However, Woll has shown that he can be ready and willing to take over the crease if and when the time comes. As for Martin Jones, he is available to take on the backup role if needed, but for now, he will be the third goalie.
In all, there could be a world where Keefe keeps the same roster that he’s been rolling out when Marner and Jarnkrok return from injury. But, over these last 16 games, he should experiment with a few different looks to ensure he knows all his options. In terms of the lineup I have laid out here, this is the ideal Maple Leafs lineup heading into the first game of the playoffs.