The New York Islanders’ offseason is underway and fans have already begun speculating what moves the team will make. It has been confirmed Lou Lamoriello and Patrick Roy will not be leaving so it is known the team will continue to push for a Stanley Cup. Using past decisions, how might the Islanders approach this offseason?
Pre-Draft Decisions
As the NHL Draft approaches, the Islanders are likely to remain relatively quiet. Lamoriello typically waits to sign his restricted free agents (RFAs) until the rest of the roster is sorted out, and most of the pending unrestricted free agents are either likely to test the free agent market or contemplate retirement. In the coming weeks, the only decision he will have to make is which coaches remain next season.
Related: 2023-24 New York Islanders: Too Long, Too Much Money
Outside of Roy, it should be expected to see Benoit Desrosiers return as an assistant coach. He has been viewed as Roy’s understudy and with Roy returning, it is hard to imagine he would not have Desrosiers remain, too. With the Islanders’ penalty kill being such a disappointment this past season, it is likely to see Doug Houda be relieved of his duties.
How Does Draft Day Go?
The Islanders have the ability to make a first-round selection for the first time since 2019. Their first-round pick currently sits at 18th overall, but it is likely Lamoriello is trying to use the draft pick in a trade. With the Islanders in need of a young, affordable left-handed forward, they will shift their attention to the Florida Panthers.
Florida has been one of the top teams in recent seasons, notably making the 2023 Stanley Cup Final before falling to the Vegas Golden Knights. With Florida set to be tight to the salary cap ceiling, they will be trading pending RFA Anton Lundell and their 2025 fifth-round pick to the Islanders for the 18th overall selection, Oliver Wahlstrom, and the Islanders 2025 fourth-round selection. From there, the Islanders will sign the 22-year-old to a three-year, $3.25 million average annual value (AAV) contract.
The price for Lundell is hard to gauge. His age and previous performances leave him with high upside, but he has struggled offensively over the previous two seasons. His rookie season saw him score 18 goals and 44 points in just 65 games, but he has put up just 25 goals and 68 points in his previous 151 games. However, he finished each of his three NHL seasons around the 17 expected goals mark, according to Moneypuck. His point totals are also a result of playing around 15 minutes per game throughout his career. In an elevated role in the Islanders’ top six, he could surely hit the 20-goal mark with ease if given the opportunities Anders Lee has had on that top line in recent seasons.
Lundell’s value may not be equal to a first-round pick and more; the Panthers’ likely desire to keep Lundell would raise his value to that first-round pick. At the end of the day, if the Panthers do not want to move Lundell, the Islanders could shift their focus to a different young forward.
Signing Contract Extensions
After the draft, the Islanders will make a few contract extensions. The first will be bringing back Cal Clutterbuck on a one-year, $800,000 contract. Mike Reilly will also extend on a two-year, $1.25 million AAV contract. Matt Martin and Robert Borrutzzo will retire, and Sebastian Aho will hit the free-agent market.
For RFAs, Kyle MacLean will sign for two years at $950,000 AAV, Simon Holmstrom will sign for two years at $1.2 million, Ruslan Iskhakov for two years at $875,000 and Dennis Cholowski for two years at $800,000.
Free Agency Begins
As free agency begins, the Islanders’ current roster sits at an $88,075,000 cap hit with 13 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goaltenders on the NHL roster. From here, Lamoriello will look to shed cap, and it will be at the expense of Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The Seattle Kraken will be on the phone and send RFA Kailer Yamamoto to the Islanders in exchange for Pageau, prospect Isaiah George, and the Islanders 2025 third-round pick.
Adding Pageau will help Seattle’s forward core by adding an experienced NHL veteran who is strong in the faceoff circle. Considering Pageau has finished each of the past five seasons with a faceoff win percentage greater than 55%, he will be a tremendous help to the Kraken who finished last season with a 47.4 faceoff win percentage, the eighth-lowest for any team in the NHL, according to Moneypuck.
After this trade, the Islanders will sign Yamamoto to a one-year, $1.25 million contract. This will leave the roster with just over $3 million in projected cap space which they will use to address the gap on the third line. This will be solved by signing former New York Ranger Jack Roslovic. He had an underwhelming 2023-24 season split between the Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets, but he should bounce back in a consistent role on the Islanders’ third line. From here, the roster is pretty set in stone.
Islanders’ Roster Out of the Preseason
Following the offseason, the Islanders roster is projected to have an $86.55 million cap hit with one scratched forward and one scratched defenseman. After an underwhelming 2023-24 season, Hudson Fasching will not make the Islanders roster out of camp and be sent down to the Bridgeport Islanders. As well, rookie Alex Jefferies will begin the season in Bridgeport.
The Islanders may be giving up a key faceoff taker in Pageau, but they will still be sporting a roster with seven centers. The lines will be similar to the 2023-24 season but contain more offensive upside.
Anton Lundell – Bo Horvat – Mat Barzal
Anders Lee – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri
Pierre Engvall – Jack Roslovic – Kailer Yamamoto
Kyle MacLean – Casey Cizikas – Simon Holmstrom
Extra: Cal Clutterbuck
The defense is a bit trickier to predict. Given the fact the team has five of next season’s defensemen all but set in stone, the only hole to fill is the third pairing, left defenseman. Given Mike Reilly’s phenomenal play as an Islander, he should be a priority to bring back. This works very well for Scott Mayfield whose defensive partner has been a revolving door in recent seasons.
According to Moneypuck’s expected goals percentage model, Mayfield’s best defensive partner from last season was Reilly, with the two possessing a 48.7 expected goals percentage. While this is not an ideal number, a fully healthy Mayfield and some chemistry in training camp would go a long way for the pairing. In addition to the defense, the goaltending tandem is set in stone, with Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov both expected to return next season. With all of this said, the blue line and goaltending tandem should look something like this:
Alexander Romanov – Noah Dobson
Adam Pelech – Ryan Pulock
Mike Reilly – Scott Mayfield
Extra: Samuel Bolduc
Ilya Sorokin
Semyon Varlamov
Recap
Trying to predict an entire offseason of moves is difficult, but let’s recap the entirety of the decisions. Lamoriello has shown he is willing to dish out a first-round pick if it means helping the team. In acquiring Lundell he adds a versatile forward who is left-handed and young. Lundell’s defensive abilities will also bode well with Roy and his system that relies on each forward to contribute on both ends of the ice.
Lamoriello has shied away from moving core players unless he is forced to. Given the majority of the roster’s contracts containing no-trade clauses and the team’s disappointing end to the 2023-24 season, he will likely feel comfortable moving a core player to free up the cap to help the team elsewhere.
From here, Lamoriello addresses the issue of scoring in the bottom six while going after an affordable forward for the third line. The Islanders had a bottom-five third line in the NHL this past season, so swapping out two of the players makes sense, especially since Pierre Engvall is signed long-term and is not going to be traded. Lamoriello realizes he can give up Pageau’s faceoff ability since the lineup will still have seven centers.
Staying in the bottom six, Lou brings back Kyle MacLean and Simon Holmstrom who both showcased the ability to play anywhere in the lineup and score. Respected veteran Casey Cizikas returns as the fourth-line center, attempting to bring the Islanders back to their former glory of having one of the league’s best fourth lines. All of these moves are consistent with Lamoriello’s comments on believing in this current group as the only major decision he makes is trading away Pageau.