The regular season is almost here and the Buffalo Sabres are geared up for a possibly monumental season. There are a lot of things to be excited about with this very talented young team, and there will be a lot of storylines to pay attention to as the season progresses. Offensive players will look to build on their career years, defensive players will look to improve, and a few young goalies will look to claim the crease as there is a massive amount of opportunity for them.
In regards to the major statistics that are followed throughout the season, the Sabres have a few players that seem obvious for those choices. Players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin will likely be leading some of the different scoring categories, but there are other major stats on the defensive end that will see some differentiations from the usual suspects. With a few new faces on the roster for this year along with some young players that gained more experience, there is a lot of potential to see some races for different categories. Let’s have a look at how some of these could play out compared to last season.
Sabres’ Offensive Leaders
Last season, the Sabres were one of the top scoring teams in the NHL, and that was largely thanks to a handful of very talented players. The top line of Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner were all dynamos, but there were a few others that made some major offensive contributions along the way. Dylan Cozens was a major scoring threat, Rasmus Dahlin was a playmaking machine, Casey Mittelstadt was a near 60-point player, and Victor Olofsson continued to be a goal scorer. The question is, which of these players will lead the major offensive categories for the 2023-24 season, or will there be any new contenders?
As far as new contenders are concerned, Owen Power and JJ Peterka are two names that come to mind as major contributors. Both players had solid rookie seasons, and have the potential to really build on them given their roles on the team. Peterka is assumed to be slotted on the second line with Cozens, and the two of them have some very good chemistry. If they both continue to feed off one another, they will both see some dramatic increases in their offensive numbers.
Power will continue to man the second power-play unit, and be a 1B to Dahlin on the second defensive pairing as he racks up assists all season long. One hope is that he shoots the puck a little more and gets some more goals, taking some pressure off Dahlin from the back end.
Sabres’ Defensive Leaders
While Power and Dahlin will be the offensive talents from the defensive core, there are some other defenders that will be leading the back end categories. Newcomer Connor Clifton is a known as a physical two-way defender, Erik Johnson has always been a reliable defensive defender, and Mattias Samuelsson has proven he is their best stay-at-home defender in years. Blocking shots, throwing hits, and having strong possession games will be the highlights of these players, so don’t be looking for them to light up the scoresheet.
Having defenders like these will only be helpful to the Sabres’ overall game this season. Last season, Clifton had a massive number of hits with 208, and the next closest on the Sabres would have been Samuelsson with 107. While the Sabres have not been an overly physical team, they did bring in Clifton on defense and Jordan Greenway at forward to help with that issue. Between the two of them, one stands out as the clear favorite, but both will be contributors to that situation. For blocking shots, the Sabres’ defense as a whole was solid at this last season. In regards to who will lead that category this season, a few contenders would be Samuelsson (91 in 2022-23), Clifton (120 in 2022-23), or Dahlin (131 in 2022-23). All had similar numbers in that category, so it could go a few ways.
Sabres’ Goaltending Leaders
There are three contenders for the starting position in the Sabres’ crease, and those are Devon Levi, Ukko Pekka Luukkonen, and Eric Comrie. All three are young goaltenders with fewer than 50 games each of playing experience. General manager Kevyn Adams opted to let his team’s goalie competition play out internally rather than bringing in a more experience veteran to the position, and this will ultimately allow for an unprecedented opportunity.
Of the three, Levi had the best stats from last season, but he also had the smallest sample size. He played some massive games down the stretch and looked collected and quick in every appearance, which leaves high expectations for him this season. Luukkonen showed flashes of brilliance along with far too many moments of head-shaking missed saves (particularly on his glove side), but going into this season, he will look to improve as a whole and compete with the other two. Comrie had a slight injury issue last season and never really got up to full speed until late in the season when he was putting in some great games. Some might think there is a clear favorite, but until the season really gets under way, it will be anyone’s game to claim that crease.
Sabres’ Stat Leader Predictions
Having looked at the contenders for the different categories, there still remains the prediction as to which players will claim the top spot in each. These choices are based on projection as well as success from previous seasons:
- Goals – Tage Thompson – 50
- Assists – Rasmus Dahlin – 67
- Points – Tage Thompson – 100
- Shots – Tage Thompson – 302
- Power-Play Goals – Tage Thompson – 17
- Power-Play Assists – Rasmus Dahlin – 24
- Shorthanded goals – Dylan Cozens – 4
- Faceoff Percentage – Dylan Cozens – 51%
- Hits – Connor Clifton – 195
- Blocked Shots – Mattias Samuelsson – 148
- Plus/Minus – Alex Tuch – +22
- Goals Against Average – Devon Levi – 2.68
- Save Percentage – Devon Levi – .910
- Goalie Games Played – Devon Levi – 42
- Shutouts – Devon Levi/Ukko Pekka Luukkonen – 2
The Sabres will likely only have one rookie in the lineup full time in Levi, so I did not include a rookie scoring category. If Matt Savoie is healthy and makes the opening roster, he would have been my choice to take that spot with around 32 points (12 goals, 20 assists). A second possible rookie contender for scoring would otherwise be Lukas Rousek if he makes the team out of camp. His numbers would look slightly lower considering the type of player he is, but a successful rookie campaign for him would be around 19 points (seven goals, 12 assists).
Related: Sabres Player Comparisons: Past and Present
Some runner-ups for some close categories would be Tuch having 15 power-play goals, Power having 19 power-play assists, Dahlin having 140 blocked shots, and Luukkonen having a 2.81 goals against, and a .900 save percentage. There are a lot of possibilities going into this season, and a lot of potential movement among players in these categories. While Thompson is a clear scoring favorite, he will be challenged and rivaled by Tuch and Skinner all season. If Mittelstadt is healthy all season and he plays in the top six, he will be a rival to Dahlin for the assists leader with around 60. On top of those, Luukkonen will be chomping at Levi’s heels trying to out compete him in the crease all year long. All that is left now is for the season to start and these predictions to be put to the test.
