Welcome to the Summer of 2023. The NHL Draft is over. The meat of free agency is done. Most folks now look ahead to the two or so months of downtime before another season beckons.
There will be some signings. There may be a big trade or two (see Karlsson, Erik.) At least from a Blue Jackets’ standpoint, they have more than enough on their current roster to make a full team of 23.
Welcome to Projecting the 2023-24 Blue Jackets version 1.0. Starting now and going all the way through the announcement of the opening night roster, we are going to project what the roster might look like.
Today will be an initial estimate. Then if other signings or trades happen that could impact the roster, we’ll release multiple versions as we go. Once training camp begins, we’ll publish this on a more weekly basis.
Although the Blue Jackets have ample bodies, things are far from settled. There will be intense training camp battles. There could be a surprise or two in terms of who doesn’t make the cut. For now though since summer is just beginning, let’s see if we can’t establish a possible framework for what the roster could look like come October.
Roster Groups
Let’s first break the group down into two groups. The first group are those that require waivers. The other group will comprise of everyone else. This could have a significant bearing into how some of this shakes out.
Need Waivers
- Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly, Eric Robinson, Alexandre Texier, Mathieu Olivier, Emil Bemstrom, Liam Foudy, Justin Danforth, Josh Dunne, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Carson Meyer, Brendan Gaunce (15 forwards.)
- Defense: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, Tim Berni (once signed), Jake Bean, Marcus Bjork, Jake Christiansen, Billy Sweezey (11 defensemen.)
- Goalies: Elvis Merzlikins, Daniil Tarasov (2 goalies.)
Notables Who Don’t Need Waivers
Note: Not an all-inclusive list.
- Forwards: Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli, Hunter McKown, Dmitri Voronkov, Yegor Chinakhov (7 forwards.)
- Defense: Nick Blankenburg, David Jiricek, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans (4 defensemen.)
- Goalies: Jet Greaves, Nolan Lalonde (2 goalies.)
Now you see why the title of this was “Options Aplenty.” The Blue Jackets are going to have some tough decisions to make based on training camp. Our Nicholas Arnold did a nice job in recapping the lack of free-agency moves for the Blue Jackets and why that wasn’t a bad thing.
Related: Blue Jackets’ Inactivity in Free Agency is Not a Bad Thing
There was simply no need to add someone unless it made the team significantly better. The Blue Jackets have about $4.75 million in cap space as of this writing. They’ll continue to explore options and could make a deal at some point. But there won’t be a rush to make a trade.
We will factor in contract and waiver status when making projections. We will also try to highlight the bubble, those right on the cusp of being in and what they might have to do to gain a spot on the roster. Nobody said this was going to be easy, right? Let’s give this our best shot.
Projecting the Roster 1.0
We will try to project a roster of 23 players, either 14-7-2 or 13-8-2. The battle for the last spot could very well go to the wire between a forward and a defenseman.
Let’s try to knock out the easiest stuff first. The goaltending appears set. Merzlikins and Tarasov appear in line to be the two goalies to start. Greaves should get plenty of starts with the Monsters. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jackets find another goaltender to come in who can both play AHL games and come on in a pinch if there’s an injury in Columbus.
The defense is actually somewhat easier at this point. Just based on contract status, there are seven defensemen who have a cap hit of over $2 million according to CapFriendly. These being Werenski, Severson, Provorov, Gudbranson, Peeke, Boqvist and Bean. This could be the seven that go to opening night barring injury and performance.
I didn’t include the waivers exempt in Blankenburg and Jiricek. Blankenburg has to prove he can stay healthy. But when he was in, he brought energy and enjoyed some success. Jiricek could get his shot with Werenski to start camp. But in this setup, the Blue Jackets do not have to rush him. They’d rather him play games than sit in the press box. For now, we’ll project both to the Monsters due to their waivers status.
Forward is where things are going to get tricky. There’s a logjam that needs sorted out. Let’s try to pick 13 forwards starting with those that need waivers who I would consider a lock.
- Gaudreau, Laine, Roslovic, Jenner, Kuraly, Robinson, Texier, Olivier.
Now let’s pick five more who don’t need waivers.
- Johnson, Sillnger, Fantilli, Marchenko, Voronkov.
So far, we’ve picked 13 forwards and seven defensemen along with the two goalies. Based on this projection, here is what the battle for the 23rd spot could look like.
- Bubble forwards: Bemstrom, Foudy, Danforth, Chinakhov, McKown.
- Bubble defense: Blankenburg, Jiricek, Bjork, Berni, Christiansen.
A trade or two could dramatically alter this. We’re a great performance or two at camp away from potential trades. This fact alone will make camp super interesting to watch.
Lines 1.0
Here is my first iteration of what the lines could look like and then I’ll say a couple things about them after.
- Line 1: Gaudreau-Jenner-Laine
- Line 2: Johnson-Fantilli-Marchenko
- Line 3: Texier-Voronkov-Roslovic
- Line 4: Robinson-Kuraly-Olivier
- Extras: Sillinger, Danforth
- D1: Werenski-Severson
- D2: Provorov-Boqvist
- D3: Bean-Gudbranson
- Extras: Peeke
- Goalies: Merzlikins, Tarasov.
While I think Fantilli will eventually get to the top line, I think he’s better off starting a bit lower in the lineup to get used to the speed of the NHL. This shouldn’t take too long though.
Jenner will be interesting to watch. With previous history with back injuries, the Blue Jackets may want to monitor him and his playing time. Could he eventually find himself on the wing? However given what all he brings in all situations especially at the dot, I believe he’s the top center until Fantilli runs with it.
I am of the belief that Voronkov comes in and wins a spot as the 3C. He’s played against men in Russia. It’s just a matter of getting used to the game on the smaller ice in North America. Texier is back and Roslovic is still here as of this writing. With consistency, this could be a formidable third line but could very easily look different if other moves are made.
I went back to Robinson, Kuraly, Olivier given their success together at points. It leaves Sillinger on the outside for now although I believe he will have a good camp and break through into a spot. He has to show he’s over the struggles of last season. His rise should it happen could prompt Jenner to move to the wing eventually.
As for the defense, I am sticking with the seven over $2 million I mentioned. Injuries are bound to happen so you need depth. Rotate the righties based on play and you have a much better blue line to start this season than last. Take advantage of the waivers status when it’s there. The Blue Jackets don’t have to rush Jiricek. Let him continue to play top-pair minutes. If he overwhelmingly shows he’s ready for the NHL now, then it gets real interesting.
Stay tuned for version 2.0 at some point once other moves are made or if training camp gets underway. These Blue Jackets have options aplenty when trying to determine what their 2023-24 initial roster might look like.