It’s almost mid-June, and most hockey fans are tuning into the Stanley Cup Final matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers. If not, they are most likely looking towards the upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft or the annual free agency extravaganza that begins every Canada Day (July 1 for Americans). For followers of the Calgary Flames, this narrative remains intact; if they aren’t cheering for the Panthers, they are prophesying what moves general manager Craig Conroy will make this summer. One such move is the re-signing of the Flames’ current free agents. Who stays and who is allowed to walk?
The 2024 list includes names like AJ Greer, Oliver Kylington, Jakob Pelletier, and most importantly, goaltender Dustin Wolf. The 23-year-old has long been heralded as the Flames’ goalie of the future, winning goaltender of the year, MVP, or both at every level of hockey he has played so far. In 2023-24, fans and media got a really good look at him as he suited up for a career-high 17 games at the NHL level. Wolf has now finished his three-year, entry-level contract (ELC) that he signed with the franchise back in 2020 (his fourth year slid due to being placed in junior for the 2020-21 season). Through 18 total appearances with the Flames, he has a record of 8-7-1, a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.03, and a save percentage (SV%) of .896. Let’s take a look at the low and high ends of comparable players who recently signed extensions in an attempt to project Wolf’s next NHL contract.
Low-End Comparable: Arvid Soderblom, Chicago Blackhawks
The first goaltender to examine in contrast is Arvid Soderblom of the Chicago Blackhawks. The Gothenburg, Sweden native was undrafted but was signed to a two-year ELC by the Blackhawks after being relatively successful for Skelleftea AIK of the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) (13 wins in 22 games in 2020-21). After suiting up for the franchise in the next two seasons, Soderblom was also in the same position as Wolf in 2023; he was a 23-year-old restricted free agent (RFA) in between being fully established at the NHL level and not after playing an identical 18 games. Only his numbers were a lot rougher than Wolf’s: Soderblom posted a 2-12-2 record, a 4.23 GAA, and a SV% of .879.
With not many others in the pipeline and in the midst of a rebuild, the Blackhawks still viewed him as a part of their future. They signed Soderblom to a two-year extension worth $962,500 in May 2023. In 2023-24, he posted a 5-22-2 record as part of a horrible Blackhawks squad. Soderblom will again become an RFA at the end of the 2024-25 season. It is tougher to equate him with Wolf as he plays for a bottom-feeding team that likely won’t be competitive for years to come. The Flames may not have made the playoffs in the past two seasons but they aren’t far off. Regardless, if Wolf was just paid $813,333 per season to do what he did, then he should likely be given more than what Soderblom got.
High-End Comparable: Samuel Ersson, Philadelphia Flyers
Next up for comparison is 24-year-old Samuel Ersson of the Philadelphia Flyers. The Swedish netminder has been immensely helpful for the Flyers organization in helping navigate through the unfortunate absence of Carter Hart. His strong play has been relatively unexpected and has taken the pressure off of their front office to look for replacements externally. A fifth-round pick of the Flyers back in 2018, Ersson didn’t come to North America until 2021 when he signed his ELC. He was slated to be an RFA this summer but was signed to a two-year, $2.9 million contract in August 2023. His new cap hit of $1.45 million will be in effect for the upcoming 2024-25 season.
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When paralleled with Wolf, Ersson’s body of work before signing his extension was quite similar. He too was 23 years of age when he put pen to paper, had only appeared in 12 games as opposed to Wolf’s 18, had a GAA of 3.07, and a SV% of .899. Ersson’s record was more impressive, however, with six wins, three losses and one shutout. If it factors into negotiations at all, his pre-NHL body of work paled in comparison to Wolf’s; he posted back-to-back losing records with Brynas IF Gavle of the SHL whereas Wolf has notably dominated the American Hockey League for the last three seasons. The Flyers as a team are much closer to the Flames, having been a bubble team for a while and then ultimately missing out on the playoffs, making Ersson a closer example to Wolf. Ersson went on to have a 23-19-7 record in 2023-24, fully taking over the starter’s reins for the Flyers. Hopefully, Wolf can do the same with a shiny new contract.
Final Estimate
It all comes down to this: all three young men were the same age and had played similar amounts of NHL games, though to different levels of success. Despite their vast difference in annual value, both Soderblom and Ersson received two-year contract extensions. It is pretty typical for young goalies to sign “prove it” deals before signing long-term, as they are undoubtedly the most unpredictable, inconsistent position in hockey. Even one of the best goaltenders, the Dallas Stars’ Jake Oettinger, was given a three-year, $12 million contract when he was in a similar situation.
We therefore project a two or three-year extension for Wolf with an average annual value somewhere in the $1.25 to $2 million range. Given his comparisons, personal projection, and the rising salary cap, we deem this as fair. The ultimate hope is simply that the Flames and Wolf agree on something that is workable for both involved parties.
