One of the lasting images of the New York Rangers’ run to the 2022 Eastern Conference Final was authored by star winger Artemi Panarin.
Last May 15, Panarin took a pass from Adam Fox on the right side, moved in and fired his deadly-accurate wrist shot into the net to eliminate the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime of Game 7 of the opening round of the playoffs, sending the Madison Square Garden crowd into a frenzy. It represented the most memorable moment of the Breadman’s brilliant four-season run in a Blueshirt.
For all that Panarin has done for the Rangers since signing up for Broadway on July 1, 2019, though, his team requires more of those moments out of him. Because as unforgettable as that goal was, the left wing has not been as dominant in the playoffs as he has during the regular season over the course of his eight-year career.
Panarin is the greatest free-agent signing in Rangers history, and it’s not particularly close. With three 90-plus point seasons in his four in New York, Panarin has amazingly justified his $11.6 million annual cap hit as the catalyst for the Rangers’ offense on a nightly basis.
He delivered a career-high 96 points in 2021-22. Yet despite that effort and the series clincher against the Penguins, Panarin was merely good in that postseason, continuing a career-long trend – one that his Stanley Cup-aspiring club needs him to buck starting next week against the New Jersey Devils in the opening round.
Panarin Struggled to Produce Against Hurricanes, Lightning Last Postseason
Panarin has hardly failed to produce in the tournament, with 44 points in 50 career playoff games. Still, he has yet to take over a series in the way he often takes over games – which was noticeable last spring. After a hot start against Pittsburgh with two goals and two assists in the first three games, Panarin went the next three with no goals and only two assists before scoring his big goal to send the Rangers into the next round.
Waiting for them were the Carolina Hurricanes, who had no intention of letting Panarin beat them and employed a style and game plan that allowed them to do it. Unable to operate in the offensive zone under Carolina’s relentless man-on-man puck pressure style, Panarin was denied the time and space he needed to create and hit teammates with pinpoint passes that lead to prime scoring opportunities. Though the Blueshirts had enough offensive depth to get past the Hurricanes in seven games, Panarin finished the series with only one goal and three assists.
He was only marginally better against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the conference finals, with two goals and three assists and no points in the final two contests, during which the Rangers managed one goal each time as they were eliminated in six games after leading the series 2-0.
The loss to the Lightning was hardly one man’s fault, with the Rangers getting exposed by a bigger, stronger Tampa Bay team that was the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion. The Blueshirts, however, will have to go through similarly brutal competition if they want to be the ones hoisting the trophy in June.
If they end up doing so, it probably means Panarin, in addition to the Rangers’ numerous other stars, came through with big postseason performances. For Panarin, though, the question is whether he can find a way for his dynamically creative style to work just as effectively in the postseason as it does in the regular season.
So far, it hasn’t really happened, and advanced statistics paint Panarin’s 2022 playoffs as his worst yet. His 45.08 Corsi for percentage, 46.11 shots for percentage and 39.98 expected goals percentage were all career lows. The Rangers were stunningly dominated 98-57 in the high-danger chances category when Panarin was on at 5-on-5 last postseason – the type of scoring chance Panarin is known for generating for himself and teammates. In fact, Panarin’s teams have held an advantage in the high-danger chances category with him on the ice only once in his six postseasons.
How to overcome it? Some debate predictably swirled last postseason about whether Panarin’s approach just doesn’t translate to the playoffs, when a straight-ahead, net-crashing style is often rewarded with the intensity level turned up and every foot of ice more hotly contested. He needs to strip things down, the thinking went, and dump the puck in and keep it simpler in the playoffs.
Stifling Panarin’s Creativity Seems Like a Losing Strategy
Such thinking, though, seems flawed. To ask a world-class offensive player to change what he’s done to make him successful represents a win for opponents without them having had to do anything. The Rangers need Panarin at his creative, unpredictable best, not a Panarin Lite who’s more focused on not making mistakes than driving play, as he’s done in being so wildly productive during four regular seasons on Broadway.
“I try not to take as much risk as I usually take. (It’s) not feeling great, but sometimes you have to do that,” Panarin said in a memorable, revealing quote last May during the nip-and-tuck playoff series against the Hurricanes. “It depends on the situation in the game. If you are losing a few-nothing, you have to start playing like you normally do. I would love to do some stupid s–t on the blue line, but I can’t.
“I feel bad for Turk (coach Gerard Gallant). He’s nervous, he’s got a nervous system.” (From ‘Risk-Averse Rangers Suppressing Artemi Panarin’s Most Valuable Qualities’, New York Post, 5/20/22)
It sounded like the words of an artist being told he couldn’t paint the way he wanted to.
If there are adjustments to be made, it seems as if they should be subtle ones – and most importantly, come from Panarin himself, not from behind the bench. It means not abandoning the attempts to thread passes through traffic, just being more accurate with them. It means not dumping the puck in after yet another successful zone entry, just knowing he needs to move the puck more quickly with pressure coming faster than it did during the regular season. It means adapting as much as possible to a different set of conditions without moving away from what has made Panarin one of the NHL’s great offensive forces.
Related: 3 Keys to a Rangers First-Round Victory
All of that sounds elementary and obvious, and it probably is. The point is that in the playoffs, every player needs to raise their level and do what is necessary to succeed. Panarin’s game is more complex than that of most players, so it follows that it might take more for him to morph into a great postseason performer.
About those mistakes, though …
Can Panarin Limit His Costly Giveaways in the Playoffs?
Turnovers have always been inherent in Panarin’s game, the premium paid by a team in exchange for his ability to break down a defense with often-spectacular, high-risk decisions with the puck. The eye test this season, however, seemed to indicate a higher rate of those giveaways, some of them egregious ones that led directly to goals against. Sure enough, Panarin’s 102 giveaways in 82 games are easily the worst mark of his career, both in total (20 more than his previous high) and per-game average (1.2). In his first four seasons split between the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets, in which he played at least 79 games each time, Panarin never committed more than 56 giveaways.
Whatever changes Panarin decides he needs to make for the playoffs, finding a way to limit the turnovers could be among the most important. Lost possessions over the course of 82 regular-season games in exchange for 90-plus points is acceptable; in a short postseason series, high volumes of giveaways could mean the difference between moving on in the tournament and heading home for the summer.
Can the Rangers’ most creative offensive player tweak his ways to create some consistent playoff heroics, like the shining moment of last spring against the Penguins? The Rangers have gotten even more than they expected out of the regular-season version of Panarin, major value for a rich contract. Leading them on a deep run through the playoffs toward a championship would make him seem like a bargain signing.