Anyone who has read posts that The Old Prof and Stan Smith have collaborated on knows that Stan likes to use research and statistics to back up his points. In the past, our rankings have depended heavily on stats to help us arrive at conclusions.
This time out, the numbers (for the most part) are going out the window. Instead, we will examine the team’s seven free-agent signings and use more qualitative research. In this post, we’ll put the signings into one of three categories: #1 Solid Signing, #2 Questionable Signing, and #3 On The Fence.
The unrestricted free agents (UFAs) signed this offseason follow in alphabetical order.
Tyler Bertuzzi (Signed for one year at $5.5 million)
The question about who was going to replace the departed Micheal Bunting was answered in spades when the Maple Leafs signed 28-year-old Tyler Bertuzzi. In his last two seasons, Bertuzzi has scored 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games with the Detroit Red Wings in 2012-22. He then broke both his hands blocking shots on two separate occasions at the start of last season. As a result, he scored just five goals and 20 points in his first 42 regular-season games for the Red Wings and Boston Bruins.
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In Bertuzzi’s last 15 games of the 2022-23 season, including eight regular season and seven playoff games, he scored eight goals and 20 points. As long as there are no after-effects from the hand injuries, Bertuzzi should be able to more than cover for Bunting’s offence. At the same time, he will also provide the same energetic and physical game. Similar to Bunting, Bertuzzi’s defence is not great, but he should be an upgrade overall.
Rank: Solid Signing
Max Domi (Signed for one year at $3 million)
The best word to describe Max Domi’s career to this point is “erratic.” He scored 28 goals and 82 points with the Montreal Canadiens in 2018-19. However, during the 2021-22 season, his production dropped to just 11 goals and 39 points playing with the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Carolina Hurricanes. He had a bounceback season in 2022-23, scoring 20 goals and 56 points while splitting his time with the Chicago Blackhawks and the Dallas Stars.
(Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)
While he plays a feisty game, Domi is not his father (Tie Domi). His game leans more toward talent and skill than the Rock ‘Em, Sock ‘Em style his dad played.
One concern is that, over the last six years of his eight-year career, Domi has played for six different teams. The Maple Leafs will be his seventh team in seven years. It makes us wonder why. It does appear that Domi has a strong personality, like his father. Does that have anything to do with his movement from team to team? When Domi was with the Habs, in two seasons, he went from being their top-line centre to a bottom-six winger. Does that say anything?
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It is difficult to determine exactly where Domi will fit into the Maple Leafs’ lineup. Will it be as a winger or a center? Money-wise, he could be considered a replacement for Alex Kerfoot. If we compare their production, the 28-year-old Domi has averaged 17 goals and 52 points per 82 games in his career. Kerfoot, who is one year older, has averaged 14 goals and 40 points in his career. That would indicate that Domi is the superior player offensively.
But Kerfoot is also known for his solid defensive game. He was a huge part of the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill. In the past two seasons, Kerfoot played over 270 minutes on the PK. In that same period, Domi played only a minute and a half. A lot of questions need to be answered regarding Domi and his staying power with the Maple Leafs.
Rank: On The Fence
John Klingberg (Signed for one year at $4.15 million)
John Klingberg is truly an enigma. In the first five years of his career, Klingberg was considered one of the best all-around defensemen in the league. He garnered votes for the Norris Trophy in two of those seasons. Then, at the age of 26, when most defensemen are reaching their prime, his game took a serious turn for the worse. In the four ensuing seasons, Klingberg’s game deteriorated to the point where, last season, he posted some of the worst underlying statistics for a defenseman in the league.
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It was reported that Klingberg turned down an eight-year, $7 million per season offer from the Stars at the end of the 2021-22 season and instead signed a one-year $7 million “show-me” deal with the Anaheim Ducks. His intention was to use last season as a springboard to a more lucrative contract. After struggling badly with both the Ducks and the Minnesota Wild, who acquired him at the trade deadline, Klingberg now finds himself on another “show-me” deal with the Maple Leafs. Except, this season, he’s making almost $3 million less than he made last season.
One other puzzling aspect of the Klingberg signing is that new Maple Leafs general manager (GM) Brad Treliving stated he wanted the Maple Leafs to play with more “snot.” While most insiders and fans felt the team needed to get bigger and more physical on defence, Treliving signed Klingberg, who does not play a physical game.
The Maple Leafs signing Klingberg has to be considered a big gamble. Obviously, the team hopes he can find the form he displayed during the first five years of his career. If they can play him lower in the lineup, and shelter him somewhat, they might be able to help him become more successful.
Rank: Questionable
Ryan Reaves (Signed for three years at $1.35 million AAV)
If Bertuzzi is a replacement for Bunting and Domi is a replacement for Kerfoot, then it’s obvious that Ryan Reaves is the replacement for Wayne Simmonds. Reaves is your prototypical fourth-line physical player. He has only averaged nine minutes per game throughout his 930-game career.
In 13 NHL seasons, according to Quant Hockey, he is 10th in total penalty minutes in the league with 1,023 minutes served. For a player of his ilk, Reaves actually had a pretty good season offensively in 2022-23 with the Minnesota Wild. He scored five goals and 15 points and was minus-1 while averaging 9:30 of ice time per game. Despite being 36 years of age, Reaves does not appear to have slowed down much from when he was younger.
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If Reaves had signed for a league-minimum, one-year deal in the range of $775,000, we would have looked at this as a decent deal. Instead, Treliving inked Reaves to three years for close to double that at $1.35 million. What was so special about Reaves that warranted that contract?
If they want, the Maple Leafs could bury $1.15 million of Reaves’ cap hit in the American Hockey League (AHL). That would leave them with only $200,000 on the books if he failed to stick with the team. That said, it still seems like they could have acquired Reaves or another player who plays a similar game for a lot less money and term.
Rank: Questionable
Martin Jones (Signed for one year at $875,000)
The Maple Leafs desperately needed more depth in goal. Until they signed Martin Jones, they had one goalie in their system with more than 15 games of experience and only two goalies with any games played in the NHL at all. Ilya Samsonov has played 148 games, and Joseph Woll has just 15 games under his belt. The 33-year-old Jones has 507 games played in his career.
As for what the Maple Leafs are getting in Jones, with the exception of his rookie season when he sported a .934 save percentage and a 1.81 goals-against average in 19 games for the Los Angeles Kings, Jones has had so-so numbers. He has a career .905 save percentage and a 2.71 goals-against average. Last season, he had the worst save percentage of his career at .886 and saw his goals-against average come in at a smidge under three at 2.99. He did have a positive record at 27-13-3.
The key thing is that Martin is an experienced NHL goalie, something the Maple Leafs sorely lacked. He will also be the team’s third-ranked goalie behind Samsonov and Woll.
On that note, it’s highly possible that Jones won’t ever play a game for the Maple Leafs. He’s obviously there in case either Samsonov or Woll gets injured between now and game one of the regular season; however, if both goalies remain healthy, Jones will likely find himself on waivers. He could be lost to another team without ever playing a game for the team.
Rank: On The Fence
Dylan Gambrell (Signed for one year at $775,000)
The 27-year-old Dylan Gambrell is a smallish (5-foot-11) but solidly built (185 pounds) bottom-six center/winger with 235 games in the NHL. His lack of size does not prevent him from getting physical. He has 293 hits in 233 regular-season games, including 103 in 63 games in 2021-22.
While he has limited offence (seven goals and 17 points in 123 games for the Ottawa Senators over the past two seasons), he plays a responsible defensive game. In two seasons with the Senators, he was a respectable minus-2 and averaged over two minutes per game on the penalty kill.
We could see Gambrell being used as the Maple Leafs’ 13th forward, or possibly not on the roster at all.
Rank: On The Fence
Simon Benoit (Signed for one year at $775,000)
Treliving has signed three defensemen who could struggle to make the roster but will have to clear waivers to be sent down to the minors. They are 24-year-old Simon Benoit, 27-year-old William Lagesson, and 25-year-old Maxime Lajoie. All three are signed one-year, $775,000 deals.
Benoit has a leg up on the other two because he was the only player of the three who was a regular in the NHL last season. Benoit played 78 games with the Ducks in 2022-23. His forte is his physical game, and he recorded 216 hits in those 78 games, which ranked 11th in the league.
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Right now, Benoit would be ranked eighth on the backend for the Maple Leafs behind Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Klingberg, Jake McCabe, Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins. If Treliving makes any moves on defence, or if any of the seven players ahead of him on the depth chart suffer injuries in camp, Benoit would undoubtedly move up in the order.
If he doesn’t make the team and is placed on waivers, there’s a good chance he will be grabbed by another team.
Rank: On The Fence
The Bottom Line
These are the seven newcomers to the Maple Leafs. How will each of them do? In some ways, while the team will continue to be driven by its core players, the overall success of the season might rest on how well at least some of these players do this season.
With so many players on one-year contracts, after this season, some of these seven could compete for a second contract with more term. It will be interesting to see which players survive and prosper in the Blue & White.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
