2024 will mark the 12th straight year that the Detroit Red Wings have made a selection in the first round of the NHL Draft. That’s a stretch of time that spans two general managers, the decline and eventual end of the Red Wings’ status as a playoff contender, and a full-scale rebuild that began somewhere between 2017 and 2019. That’s a lot of opportunities to add talent, particularly in the first rounds of each of those drafts.
In the guessing game that is the NHL Draft, first round picks are supposed to be like a shot from the slot: results may vary, but you absolutely have to hit the net. Also like a shot from the slot, a quality chance is nice, but you’re really looking to score – even if the odds tell us that you’re way more likely to hit the post than the back of the net. And if an organization struggles to consistently convert on their opportunities, they lose more than they win, and they make their first pick a lot sooner in subsequent drafts.
So how have the Red Wings done over the last 10 years? What do their successes and failures tell us about the trajectory of this franchise? To use a phrase that either excites or terrifies students worldwide: grades are in!
2023 – Nate Danielson (C, 9th Overall)
Realistically, it is far too soon to draw meaningful conclusions about the Red Wings’ top pick in the most recent NHL Draft. Detroit’s selection of Nate Danielson marked the first time the organization chose a North American prospect with their top pick since 2017; ironically, that was also the last time the organization selected at ninth overall. Hailing from Red Deer, Alberta, this centerman already has the compete level and two-way ability to make an impact at the pro level.
In his first training camp/preseason with the Red Wings, Danielson was a standout. He played a large amount of minutes in a variety of roles, and he was ultimately one of the team’s final cuts before the start of the season. After looking close to NHL-ready, he enjoyed a fruitful season in the Western Hockey League (WHL), split between the Brandon Wheat Kings and the Portland Winterhawks. After recording 24 points in 18 playoff games with the Winterhawks, he made his official pro debut with the Grand Rapids Griffins of the American Hockey League (AHL) during the second round of their playoff run.
The only player drafted after Danielson to appear in multiple NHL games, as of this writing, is Zach Benson, drafted 13th overall by the Buffalo Sabres. Though Benson has already become an everyday NHLer, that does not necessarily mean that he would have been a better choice for the Red Wings at ninth overall. We still have a lot of hockey to watch between now and the point where we are able to make that call. So for right now, this selection, along with the next one, will not receive a grade.
2023 – Axel Sandin Pellikka (D, 17th Overall)
Axel Sandin Pellikka was a somewhat polarizing prospect in the 2023 draft class. The people that liked him REALLY liked him; TSN’s Craig Button had him ranked within the top five almost a month out from the draft. Given that the Red Wings were able to get him at 17th overall, we can safely assume that not many teams were as sold on the Swedish defenseman’s potential as an NHL defender.
This season in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL), Sandin Pellikka showed the offensive tools that made him such a highly touted prospect. He recorded 10 goals and 18 points in 39 games with Skellefteå AIK, and then he followed it up with 2 goals and 7 points in 14 playoff games. Shortly after Skellefteå’s playoff run came to an end, he signed an entry-level contract with the Red Wings. He also followed a newly-established tradition among Red Wings prospects:
It may be too soon to say anything definitive about the choice the Red Wings made at 17th overall, but the early returns are promising. Sandin Pellikka was often compared to Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Kris Letang during the 2023 scouting cycle, and the tools certainly seem to be there for Sandin Pellikka to become that type of puck-moving defender. If nothing else, he is a high-end prospect at a position (right-handed defenseman) the Red Wings do not have a ton of depth at, and there’s plenty of value in that.
2022 – Marco Kasper (F, 8th Overall)
When it was time for the 2022 NHL Draft, public opinion was that the Red Wings needed to target a center, or at least a dynamic forward to join a pool of prospects that was mostly dominated by defensemen. Once the eighth pick came around, the Red Wings did not hesitate and selected a player they were quite high on: Marco Kasper.
An Austrian centerman, Kasper made a name for himself via his compete level and two-way ability. His willingness to battle for pucks and his ability to execute skill plays in tight areas makes him the type of player that likely isn’t going to make his living through finesse plays and high-end speed. Instead, he projects as a ferocious forechecker that can create pressure near the opposing crease. His versatility as a forward should allow him to move around the lineup in a variety of roles and probably even a variety of positions.
Prominent players selected after Kasper include Matthew Savoie, Pavel Mintyukov and Frank Nazar, though none of these players or any others have really asserted themselves in a way that suggests the Red Wings whiffed by selecting Kasper. Kasper has one game of NHL experience to his credit already (his NHL debut late in the 2022-23 season) and he seems set to push for a full-time slot in the NHL starting in 2023-25. Naturally, we’re still a few seasons out from having a clear idea of how well the Red Wings did with this pick. Grade: Trending in the right direction
2021 – Simon Edvinsson (D, 6th Overall)
With their first pick in the first round of the 2021 draft, the Red Wings continued to add to their up-and-coming blue line by taking Swedish defenseman Simon Edvinsson. At the time of the pick, some scouts loved this player and had him ranked within the top five of the draft class, while others had him outside of the top-10 due to concerns about the level of risk that lies in his game. Since then, it appears the Red Wings did indeed add a Swedish monster that will patrol the left side of Detroit’s blue line for years to come.
As of this writing, Edvinsson is finishing up his second season in the AHL, where he has 57 points in 106 career appearances. His blend of size and skill is a large part of what makes him appealing as a prospect. His long reach allows him to break up plays defensively and extend them offensively. When he has time to possess the puck, he moves it with authority and looks the part of a future top-pair, offensive defenseman. The Red Wings sure seem to be enticed by his potential given that he has featured in 25 NHL games before debuting as an NHL regular.
Though Edvinsson was drafted almost three years ago, we still don’t have a firm grasp on how the Red Wings did with this pick – though there have been several signs of promise from the 6-foot-6 defender. Notable players selected after him include the three selected at seventh, eighth and ninth overall: William Eklund, Brandt Clarke and Dylan Guenther, respectively. There was plenty of talent on the board when the Red Wings made their pick, and it sure seems like they got their share of it – we just don’t know quite yet if they maximized this pick. Grade: B+
2021 – Sebastian Cossa (G, 15th Overall)
Heading into the 2021 draft, much discussion was had about the Red Wings’ need for a top-tier goalie prospect. With the team’s tendency to favor Swedish prospects, many people projected Detroit to pick Swedish goaltending prospect Jesper Wallstedt at sixth overall (they went with Edvinsson instead.) So then when the Red Wings made a trade with the Dallas Stara to move up to pick 15 with Wallstedt was still on the board, it seemed like many people were getting ready to order a Wallstedt Red Wings jersey.
Then the Red Wings took Sebastian Cossa of the WHL instead. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Wild were able to snag Wallstedt at 20th overall, setting the two goalies up to be compared to one another for the foreseeable future.
Cossa is in the midst of his second professional season and first as a full-time AHLer (he spent the 2022-23 season in the ECHL with the Toledo Walleye.) As was the case with his first season as a pro, he struggled with consistency early on, but by the turn of the new year, he was establishing himself as his team’s top option in goal. He finished the 2023-24 season with 22 wins in 40 games, a 2.41 goals-against average, and a save-percentage of .913. Though he isn’t a franchise starter in the NHL quite yet, he does seem to be on the right track. That is important for many reasons, one of which is the fact that the Stars used the 23rd pick – the pick the Stars acquired from the Red Wings – to draft Wyatt Johnston, a budding star centerman that would have been a welcome addition to Detroit’s system as well.
There is still much to see before we can fully determine how this pick has aged, but no one can deny that Cossa is a promising prospect at arguably the most important position in the game. Check back in a few years on this one because it still feels like this could go either way. Grade: B-
2020 – Lucas Raymond (W, 4th Overall)
Realistically, this is where we start to have a clear idea of whether or not the Red Wings did well with their draft choice. After a horrible 2019-20 season that was mercifully ended by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Red Wings fell three spots in the NHL draft lottery, giving them the fourth pick in the first round. With that pick, they selected a young winger from Sweden: Lucas Raymond.
After spending the pandemic season in the SHL, Raymond crossed the pond to North America before the start of the 2021-22 season. To the surprise of many, including Red Wings general manager (GM) Steve Yzerman, Raymond earned a spot in the NHL right away, skipping the AHL altogether. After recording 23 goals and 57 points in his rookie season, he was a finalist for the Calder Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s top rookie. After a bit of a sophomore slump, he roared back to prominence in his third season, recording his first 30-goal, 70-point campaign.
There were a ton of great players selected in the 2020 draft. The player selected immediately after Raymond, Jake Sanderson, looks like he could play on the Ottawa Senators’ top defensive pairing for a long time. Several other players picked in the first round look like long-term fixtures for their respective teams, but so does Raymond. He is the Red Wings’ highest draft choice since 1990, and he has already asserted himself as one of the Red Wings’ best players – especially down the final stretch of the 2023-24 season when Detroit’s playoff hopes hung in the balance. It’s still a little early to say for sure, but it appears that the Red Wings added a legitimate star in the 2020 draft. Grade: A-
2019 – Moritz Seider (D, 6th Overall)
Moritz Seider stands out among the crowd in a lot of ways. Not only is he the only German player, but he is also the only player listed here that has won an NHL award. The fact that he is built like a panzer tank makes him stand out as well.
During the 2020-21 season, Seider was awarded the EliteProspects.com Award, which is awarded to the best rookie player in the SHL. He was also named the best defenseman in the SHL that same season. His two-way play combined with his willingness to engage physically quickly earned him top pairing minutes during his first NHL season back in 2021-22. After recording 50 points in his rookie season, he became the first Red Wing in the expansion era to win the Calder Trophy.
Now three seasons into his NHL career, Seider has established himself as a defenseman that can take on heavy minutes and difficult matchups while producing at least 40 points a season. He sometimes gets buried by a lack of support elsewhere on the Red Wings’ blue line, but there’s nobody the team’s coaches trust more in high-pressure situations, at least as of this writing. There were plenty of food, even great players picked after Seider in the 2019 draft, but Yzerman almost certainly does not regret his first draft choice as the Red Wings’ GM.
Seider will likely be the Red Wings’ rock on the blue line for many years to come. Grade: A
2018 – Joe Veleno (C, 30th Overall)
In 2018, the Red Wings had two first-round picks. With the Vegas Golden Knights’ pick, acquired in the Tomas Tatar trade, they selected a player who many thought would get selected in the 15-25 range. Instead, the Red Wings nabbed him at 30th overall.
Joe Veleno was an exciting pick at the time due to his potential as an NHL center. Throughout his development in the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), AHL and even the SHL during the pandemic season, he displayed strong puck skills, showing the ability to extend possessions and create good looks with his passing ability. His attention to the defensive side of the game also helped him mature as a professional hockey player. It is those skills that ultimately landed him in the NHL in 2021.
Since making his debut during the 2020-21 season, Veleno’s usefulness has primarily come from his two-way abilities. Although he has had opportunities to take on a more offensive role, the offense he showed at the junior level has never translated to the NHL. At 24 years old, he is solid but unspectacular bottom six center with strong defensive instincts. He sees time on the Red Wings’ penalty kill, and he can fill in higher in the lineup without looking horribly overmatched. Through 232 NHL games, he has 30 goals and 64 points.
Though Veleno still has time to develop, he has likely cemented a place in the NHL as a defensive role player that likely won’t break the bank throughout his career. That may not be what folks were hoping for when he was selected, but history will tell you that getting a legitimate NHLer at 30th overall is something to be happy about. Hindsight tells us that there were better players available at this spot, but you can’t really fault Detroit for taking him, especially considering what the consensus on him was at the time of the pick. Grade: C
2018 – Filip Zadina (RW, 6th Overall)
The 2018 draft is a bit of a sore spot for Red Wings fans, and it is because of what became of their top pick in that draft.
Heading into the 2018 draft, Filip Zadina was considered one of the top forwards in the draft class; some rankings had him as high as third overall, though his stock did start to fall in the weeks leading up to the draft. Still, with players like Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson all on the board, the Red Wings went with Zadina, adding a player they thought would become a lethal scorer for years to come.
Fast forward to today and now nearly every Red Wings fan wonders “what if?” when it comes to this draft. Zadina showed flashes throughout his time with the Red Wings, but he never delivered on his draft day promise to get back at the teams that passed on him by “filling their nets with pucks”. In 2023 he sought a fresh start by asking for a trade. That summer, the Red Wings ultimately waived him and then terminated his contract when nobody claimed him. He spent the 2023-24 season with the San Jose Sharks and looks like he may never become an impact player in the NHL. Grade: the less we talk about it, the better
2017 – Michael Rasmussen (C, 9th Overall)
All 31 players selected in the first round of the 2017 Draft have appeared in the NHL. Michael Rasmussen may not be one of the more prolific players to come out of the first round of that draft, but at least Detroit got a legitimate NHL player out of the pick (not unsubstantial given the whiffs they had in the first round in the previous two drafts.)
Rasmussen has proven to be a polarizing player because of where he was drafted. While he hasn’t developed into a true top-six forward, he has turned himself into a versatile forward that provides value with his size and two-way ability. Though it may be a little hard to believe given his style of play, the player fans call “Moose” actually ranks 16th in points among 2017 draftees. He’ll never live up to his draft slot, but he is still a useful and likeable player if you can look past that.
Players selected after Rasmussen include Martin Necas, Robert Thomas, Filip Chytil and Nick Suzuki. After a breakout season in 2021-22, Thomas or Suzuki would both undoubtedly be a top-six centers for the Red Wings right now, and Necas would probably still be looked at as an underrated gem with Detroit just like he is today with the Caolina Hurricanes. While the Red Wings certainly got value out of this pick, they definitely could have had something more with what was ultimately the first pick of their rebuild. Grade: C+
2016 – Dennis Cholowski (D, 20th Overall)
This pick started to show some serious blemishes as we got into the 2020s. After making the Red Wings’ roster out of training camp at the start of the 2018-19 season and playing 52 games, Dennis Cholowski has played just 65 NHL games since then. After becoming a “cusp” player – too good for the AHL, but not quite good enough for the NHL – the Red Wings left the then 23-year-old exposed in the Seattle Expansion Draft, where the Kraken made him their pick from Detroit. Since then, he has spent time in the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders organizations, almost exclusively in the AHL.
It is important to note that the Red Wings originally held the 16th pick in this draft. On the draft floor, the Red Wings sent pick 16 and the remainder of Pavel Datsyuk’s contract to the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for picks 20 and 53. The Coyotes selected defenseman Jakob Chychrun at 16th overall, while the Red Wings got Cholowski and another defenseman: Filip Hronek.
Considering the Red Wings still got him at 53rd overall, there’s no point in pointing out that Hronek would have been a better player to snag at 20th overall. If their draft positions were flipped, however, would the perception of each player change? Other players the Red Wings could have selected include current Red Wing Alex DeBrincat, as well as Samuel Girard, Tage Thompson and Jesper Bratt.
Cholowski at 20th was a big swing, but unfortunately the Red Wings have nothing to show for it. Grade: D
2015 – Evgeny Svechnikov (LW, 19th Overall)
Of the players selected in the first round of the 2015 Draft, Evgeny Svechnikov ranks 64th in games played. Part of this is due to his season-ending surgery on his knee ahead of the 2018-19 season. However, in Svechnikov’s 172 games in the NHL, he has just 45 points.
The list of players the Red Wings could have had at 19th overall is extensive: Travis Konecny, Brock Boeser, Anthony Beauvillier, Ilya Samsonov and Brandon Carlo are just a few. But the player the Red Wings really missed out on now plays with Svechnikov’s brother in Carolina: Sebastian Aho.
To be fair, just about every team passed on Aho before Carolina picked him at 35th overall. Had the Red Wings taken him with their first pick, they would feature a one-two punch down the middle of Aho and Larkin, capable of going toe-to-toe with many in the NHL. Instead, they waited and waited for the older Svechnikov to arrive, but he never did. Grade: F
2014 – Dylan Larkin (C, 15th Overall)
The Red Wings and former general manager Ken Holland probably didn’t know it at the time, but they came away from the 2014 draft with a kid that would develop into arguably the franchise’s most important player. Having grown up in the state of Michigan, Larkin knew exactly what he was in for when the Red Wings called his name at 15th overall. Today he is the captain of his hometown team.
As of this writing, Larkin is sixth among 2014 draftees in terms of points. He also ranks fifth in terms of games played. To say that Detroit got a steal in taking this player is not that much of a stretch. Some players that he was drafted behind include Michael Dal Colle (fifth overall), Haydn Fleury (seventh) and Brendan Perlini (12th).
When any team picks a player in the first round, that team and their fanbase clings to the hope that they’ve added a star to the organization. In this case, the only players picked after Larkin that have outperformed him are David Pastrnak, whom the Boston Bruins selected with the 25th pick, and Brayden Point, selected 79th overall by Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning. If you can add a top 10 player in a draft class with a pick outside of the top 10, that should always be considered a huge win. Grade: A
What These Grades Tell Us
The Red Wings have picked dozens of players over the last 10 years, so it is a bit disingenuous to pin the organization’s successes or failures on one or two specific drafts. However, the writing was on the wall regarding the Red Wings’ collapse, especially when looking at their top picks towards the second half of the 2010s. After nailing the Larkin pick in 2014, the best return on investment from 2015 to 2018 was Rasmussen in 2017, and even he isn’t the caliber of player teams look for at ninth overall. When you fail to add impact players in the first round for any stretch of time, the quality of your roster is going to decline sooner or later. By 2020, we saw the Red Wings’ roster completely collapse as they were undoubtedly the worst team in the NHL.
But by that same logic, Red Wings fans should be optimistic about where their team is heading. Yzerman and his scouting team seemingly nailed their first two top picks in Seider and Raymond, and the early returns on a few others are promising. If a few more of their more recent picks turn into A-grade players, the Red Wings should be set to compete for championships for a long time.
