Every year, as the leaves turn brown and the days get cooler, the major sources for hockey news begin to churn out their projections for the new NHL campaign. It’s prediction season in the hockey world. The Buffalo Sabres came up just one point shy of making the playoffs in 2022-23, so do the experts believe they will get over the hump? Or are the Sabres being picked to miss the postseason dance for the 13th season in a row? Let’s take a look.
The Hockey Writers
Projections from our team at The Hockey Writers are on the pessimistic side for the Sabres. Our collective picks had the Sabres fifth in the Atlantic Division behind the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, and Boston Bruins. We broke down standings predictions by division rather than conference, so there is no definitive playoff pick here. However, if this becomes a reality, the Sabres could only finish eighth in the Eastern Conference at best.
I’m slightly more optimistic about the Sabres, but eighth or ninth place is reasonable, considering how deep the East is. As for the fifth-place finish in the Atlantic, it’s difficult to predict. The Bruins look wildly different compared to last year. They lost Patrice Bergeron, Taylor Hall, David Krejci, and more. Most of their mid-season acquisitions that helped them load up before the playoffs are also gone. Is that enough to push them below the Sabres, though? Their defense and goaltending are still among the best in the NHL, so it’s difficult to compare them to Buffalo, who rely primarily on their incredible group of forwards. Our staff thinks the Bruins will stay a step ahead.
Related: The Hockey Writers’ 2023-24 NHL Season Predictions
The Hockey Writers also predict the Lightning and Panthers to remain above the Sabres in the standings. Tampa and Florida finished just seven points and one point above Buffalo in 2022-23, respectively. “But the Sabres are a young team on the rise,” I can hear many of you protesting. “How come your writers believe they won’t make that small leap forward this season?” I think it could be that Florida seems poised for a bounce back from their underperformance in last year’s regular season. In Tampa Bay’s case, they still have the same Stanley Cup-winning core that has managed to get into the playoffs year after year. Perhaps it’s unwise to bet against such an experienced group.
Our writing team ultimately has the Sabres on the playoff bubble, unable to jump past any of their division rivals.
The Athletic
In The Athletic’s standings projections, the Sabres are again unable to break into the top four teams in the Atlantic Division. On the bright side, 67.7 percent of writers had them getting into the playoffs, the eighth highest in the East (from ‘Way-too-early predictions for the NHL 2023-24 season: Stanley Cup winner, dark horse, playoff field, awards, more’ The Athletic, July 13, 2023). It’s important to note that these projections were published before the Erik Karlsson trade, which no doubt changes the complexion of the playoff race in the East.
The Sabres made only minor changes to their roster from last season, so it makes sense that writers don’t believe there is a dramatic shift on the way in 2023-24. The Penguins, who finished with the same point total as the Sabres last season, are an aging team. Adding the reigning Norris Trophy winner might change the narrative for Pittsburgh, though. Before the Karlsson trade, The Athletic liked the Sabres’ chances at securing a wild-card spot.
The Hockey News
Considering they provide one of the most popular sources of fantasy projections, let’s look at some Sabres points projections courtesy of The Hockey News.
Top 10 Sabres Point Projections 2023-24
- Tage Thompson: 84
- Alex Tuch: 80
- Dylan Cozens: 75
- Rasmus Dahlin: 75
- Jeff Skinner: 68
- Mittlestadt: 51
- Owen Power: 45
- Olofsson: 44
- Matt Savoie: 42
(from ‘NHL Fantasy Guide 2023-24,’ The Hockey News, September 2023).
I’ll highlight the boldest choice here: Matt Savoie. His chance to make the team took a massive blow after he sustained an injury during the prospect tournament just before the preseason. Right now, he’s listed as week-to-week. If he can return soon enough to play some preseason games and make the team, he is a fascinating player for the Sabres.
Savoie produced 1.53 points per game (P/GP) this past season in the WHL. His production in junior is comparable to Dylan Cozens, who scored at a 1.66 P/GP clip during his final season in the WHL. Cozens scored 13 points in 41 games during his rookie season with the Sabres.
The Hockey News is high on Savoie with this 42-point projection. Their optimism may stem from the fact that he is entering the league on a much more talented offensive team than Cozens had to work with. Due to his small stature, I’m not sure if Savoie will adjust to the NHL faster than Cozens, but his skill and scoring ability are undeniable. If he can make the team right away and produce, the Sabres should have a great chance to make the playoffs.
Unlike the other sources listed earlier, The Hockey News believes the Sabres are a top-four team in their division (from ‘NHL YEARBOOK 2023-24,’ The Hockey News, August 21, 2023). Due to the injury status of Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay and the heavy losses in Boston, perhaps penciling in Buffalo for top four in the Atlantic Division standings will age well.
The Experts’ Verdict
So, with all of these opinions on the Sabres compiled, what is the verdict on their playoff status? The verdict on Buffalo is that they should be able to squeak into the playoffs, but they appear to be somewhat on the bubble.
Last year, the Sabres showed a lot of positive steps, but one good season isn’t a guarantee that they’re headed for the playoffs right now. Some people will need to see more before they place their bet on Buffalo. The key to this season will be whether or not the goalies and defense can do a better job keeping the puck out of the net. If they can, they will stand a much better chance of making the postseason. For now, the jury is still out.
