Welcome to the first edition of the ‘Ottawa Senators 3 Up, 3 Down’ column for the 2022-23 season. This is the start of a weekly series that will be released on Mondays, detailing the highs and lows of the previous seven days.
The Ottawa Senators received a harsh reality check in the first week of the regular season, with the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs inflicting defeats on general manager Pierre Dorion’s new-look squad. However, the situation at the Canadian Tire Centre isn’t as bad as the record book implies: they were upset by Craig Anderson in Game 1 and fell to a very strong opponent in Game 2.
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Jake Sanderson was undeniably the star of the week for the Senators and currently ranks second on the team in time on ice. Even in their 4-1 defeat to the Sabres, the 20-year-old was calm, composed, and had the confidence to make important plays from the blue line. He also notched his first professional assist versus the Maple Leafs to bookend a promising start for the rookie.
With that said, here’s a look at some of the positives and negatives from the first week of the season for the Senators and their fans.
Plus 1: Power Play Shows Signs of Life
The Senators didn’t make an impact on the power play versus the Sabres – and head coach D.J. Smith wasn’t happy about it. After his team’s opening loss of the season, he bemoaned his team’s poor offensive execution.
“I thought we had a real good first period,” Smith said on Thursday (Oct. 13). “We need to score on the power play, it wasn’t good for us tonight. We didn’t create enough chances or score on the five-on-three… we had plenty of chances but we just didn’t put it in the back of the net.”
However, the Senators made significant progress in their second game. Shane Pinto scored on the power play versus the Maple Leafs, with Claude Giroux and Sanderson providing the assists:
If the Senators continue to move the puck as they did on the power play in Toronto, they will cause their opponents plenty of issues this season. Moreover, the ‘second’ unit will benefit from Sanderson’s development throughout the season.
“We liked the way we played,” Giroux said. “Obviously we need to clean up a few things, but overall we played a way better game than [the 4-1 loss Thursday to the] Buffalo [Sabres] and I feel like we took a little step. It’s early in the season. Obviously you want to have a good start to the season, but at this point 0-2, now we are going home and just have to feel comfortable with our game knowing what we have to do and follow the game plan. If we do that for 60 minutes, we’ll give ourselves a chance to win more often.”
The Senators have all the components they need to be successful. It’s just a matter of improving as a team as the campaign rolls on.
Minus 1: Senators’ Bottom-Six Is Struggling
While it’s still very early in the season, data provided by Money Puck tells a troubling story about the Senators’ third and fourth lines. They’ve been snowed in at five-on-five thus far:
| Player | On-Ice Expected Goals Percentage (Five-on-Five) | Off-Ice Expected Goals Percentage (Five-on-Five) |
| Parker Kelly | 24.4 | 51.7 |
| Mark Katelic | 25 | 52 |
| Austin Watson | 31.6 | 51.2 |
| Shane Pinto | 35.9 | 57.7 |
| Tyler Motte | 38.3 | 54.8 |
| Mathieu Joseph | 40.2 | 54.3 |
Speaking to reporters after his side lost to the Maple Leafs, Smith underlined his desire to see the team play with more of a physical edge: “We’ve got to be a little more desperate. We’ve got to knock people down and we were fishing for the puck.”
With that said, the Senators should improve once they have the benefit of playing with home-ice advantage. They started the season with a pair of road games, which limited Smith’s ability to be impactful from the bench. Their bottom six will be under pressure to be better in the second week of the season. They don’t need to set the world on fire with brilliant offence, but they can’t have the ice tilted against them on every shift.
Plus 2: Tim Stützle Looks Lively
Despite starting the year without a point in his first two appearances, Tim Stützle looks good. The 20-year-old has been on the ice every time that the Senators have scored and boasts a team-leading 70.8 percent five-on-five expected goals share. He has also won 60 percent of his faceoffs.
“I think we did a lot of things well,” the German forward said after their defeat in Buffalo. “In the end, two mistakes cost us. But I think we’re working hard as a team and that we had a lot of chances to win the game.”
If the 20-year-old continues to perform at his current level, he will score a lot this season. He is skating well, drawing penalties, and occupying the attention of defencemen. In other words, it’s Stützle’s time to shine.
Minus 2: Senators Lack Scoring Touch at Even Strength
Although the Senators’ power play is starting to click, they haven’t been prolific at five-on-five. Smith’s team has only scored twice at even strength and has yet to make the most of their summer arrivals. Regardless, Giroux is off and running with his first goal for the club:
When asked if the team would take confidence from their performance versus the Maple Leafs, the 34-year-old said: “I don’t know. I’m here to win hockey games.”
Smith added: “It’s really disappointing but if we play like that, we’re going to win lots of games.”
In other words, the Senators have moved beyond the point in their rebuild where performances are more important than results. They haven’t produced enough offence at five-on-five yet, which has undermined otherwise acceptable displays. With several difficult games on the horizon, they must start to shift the dial soon.
Plus 3: Anton Forsberg Is in Top Form
Cam Talbot’s preseason injury was a major point of concern before the puck dropped versus the Sabres. After all, he was acquired with the starter’s job in mind and arrived with a solid reputation to protect. But the Senators haven’t missed him so far: Anton Forsberg has been excellent and enters the second week of the season with a .924 save percentage and a 2.56 goals-against average. The 29-year-old has also earned praise from his teammates.
“He was unbelievable,” Pinto said of Forsberg’s performance versus the Maple Leafs. “They had a lot of chances in the second and third that could’ve gone in but he did a good job keeping us in the game. He’s a horse back there, it gives us confidence every night knowing he’s there. He’s obviously done a great job for us.”
Forsberg isn’t to blame for the Senators’ pointless start to the campaign. He looks like the real deal, despite playing without the support of an established NHL backup. Now, it’s a question of whether he can sustain his high standards until Talbot returns.
Minus 3: Senators Face Uphill Battle This Week
Unfortunately for the Senators, their schedule doesn’t soften in the second week of the season. They host the Boston Bruins in their home opener on Tuesday (Oct. 18), with contests against the Washington Capitals and Arizona Coyotes to follow. Then in week three, they will face the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, and Florida Panthers.
If the Senators are to fulfil their potential this season, they must find a way to secure their first win sooner rather than later. It won’t be easy with difficult games on the horizon.
That’s it for the first ‘3 Up, 3 Down’ of the season for the Senators. What are you looking out for in the week ahead? Join the conversation in the comments!