The Ottawa Senators have made plenty of changes to the roster, all of which have made the team a better and deeper team on paper. As everyone knows, you don’t qualify for the playoffs on paper. This article will focus on three on-ice areas where the Senators need to improve to qualify for the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Senators have not qualified for the playoffs in six seasons. That is the third-longest playoff drought in the NHL, and this year is arguably the best shot they have had in a long time. Their stacked division featuring the Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Tampa Bay Lightning will make it extremely tough, but if these three areas improve, you could see the Senators leapfrog one of those teams for a divisional playoff spot.
Losing Alex DeBrincat is a major loss to the organization’s top six, but replacing him with Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik should help soften the blow. They made other upgrades on the roster as general manager Pierre Dorion addressed the one major position that needed improvement.
Their Goaltending Must Stabilize
They addressed the goaltending position early in free agency by signing Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year contract worth $4 million in average annual value (AAV). Plenty of people saw this as a risky signing, as signing a goaltender to a longer-term contract can always take a turn for the worse.
However, action was needed after last season. The Senators barely missed out on a playoff spot, and that was with their starting goaltender, Cam Talbot, posting a .898 save percentage (SV%) and 2.93 goals against average (GAA), which resulted in a 17-14-2 record. He was far too inconsistent for the starting role, and Korpisalo projects to be a massive upgrade in the short term.
The most recent stretch Korpisalo put together were his 11 starts with the Los Angeles Kings, where he posted a 2.13 GAA, .921 SV%, and a record of 7-3-1. The Kings are a defensive juggernaut, but these numbers are incredibly encouraging for a team in desperate need of a talented goaltender.
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The Senators’ backup goaltender projects to be Anton Forsberg, who you could argue was the most effective goaltender for the franchise in 2022-23. According to Money Puck, he saved 8.1 goals above expected, which was noticeably higher than any other goalie option the Senators used. Him starting anywhere from 25-35 games next season should be on the table, as they need to keep Korpisalo fresh for the important games down the stretch.
Depth Offence Must Contribute
The Senators’ bottom-of-the-lineup forwards need to produce, plain and simple. Last year the fourth line contributed little to nothing on the scoresheet, and the third line was incredibly up-and-down throughout the season. Right now, it is projected that Shane Pinto and Dominik Kubalik will be running the third line together, which is already a huge upgrade over the many versions of the third-line last season.
Both Kubalik and Pinto finished last season with 20 goals, and having that level of scoring ability that far down the lineup is something the Senators organization has not had in years. They will also need to receive consistent contributions from the defence core, which has now added Jakob Chychrun to go along with offensive defencemen such as Thomas Chabot and Erik Brannstrom. Better depth will improve their five-on-five play, and if their special teams return at the same level they did last season, they will be in a prime position to make the playoffs.
Health Cannot Derail Another Season
Whether or not the Senators can stay healthy will make or break their 2023-24 campaign. The argument could certainly be made that the injuries they suffered last season derailed their playoff push, and a fully healthy lineup would do wonders for a potential playoff appearance.
One of those players they missed greatly was Josh Norris, who was limited to only eight games with a shoulder injury. Chychrun has an ugly injury history as well, and he missed the final month of the season as well as the franchise was making a final push. If these two can stay healthy this season, the outlook on the Senators’ season changes mightily.
Every team will suffer injuries, that is just the nature of hockey. It matters what the injuries are and how severe they are. Having a top-six centre in Norris miss over 90 percent of the season is an insurmountable loss. His career-high in games played is 66, and in that season, he posted 35 goals and 55 points.
Between presumably better health, having more consistent goaltending, and plentiful scoring options throughout the lineup, the argument is valid for the Senators to improve on their 86-point season from last year. Many things have to go right, but if they do, you could see the franchise quality for the playoffs for the first time since 2017.