The Ottawa Senators are in a difficult situation heading into the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. The team desperately needs to find cap relief, and general manager Steve Staios has stated that he’s going to be aggressive in the trade market. But, so far, nothing has materialized, prompting some to wonder if no one is biting on the team’s ugly contracts without some retention or compensation.
In September, it was rumoured that Mathieu Joseph was drawing interest from the Philadelphia Flyers, but they wanted a top prospect in the deal if they were going to take on his $2.95 million salary, which is where it reportedly fell apart.
The Senators aren’t likely to deal Joseph now, as he’s fit in very nicely on the second line alongside Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux, but others like Dominik Kubalik, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Jakob Chychrun should interest playoff teams as rentals. However, big-ticket players like Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan have been moved, and the Senators have been quiet, which could mean that the price to take on these contracts is similar to the Joseph rumour – if Ottawa wants to dump salary, they’ll have to attach a pick or a prospect. Yet, that can’t happen unless the Senators want to be stuck in a rebuild forever.
Senators Need Cap Space
Fueling the trade rumours about the Senators is their need to free up cap space. According to Cap Friendly, the organization has just under $80,000 in cap space, which jumps up to a whopping $109,000 in deadline cap space. While that’s far from the worst cap situation in the NHL – they sit 12th in projected cap hit – it’s prevented them from making any moves whatsoever. Ottawa can’t even call up a prospect like Maxence Guenette, who nearly made the team out of training camp, unless someone else goes on injured reserve.
On the surface, it’s hard to understand where all the money went. Sure, Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot all make over $8 million, but those deals are either at or below market value for such high-impact players. Claude Giroux’s $6.5 million has been worth every penny as the veteran has revitalized his career in Ottawa, and Tarasenko has played up to his $5 million deal that was signed last offseason. Even Joseph’s $2.95 million and Drake Batherson’s $4.975 million deals aren’t that bad compared to similar players.
The one contract that sticks out like a sore thumb, though, is Josh Norris’. With an eight-year deal coming in at $7.95 million, he is the fourth highest-paid player on the Senators, yet is on pace to hit just 21 goals and 42 points this season. That’s the same production the Nashville Predators are getting from Colton Sissons, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are getting from Max Domi, both of whom make less than half of Norris’ salary, and that’s the problem.
Every contract on the Senators, when taken in isolation, isn’t that bad (apart from one). Each deal was signed at fair market value or slightly below based on the type of player they are. However, few of these players are playing above their value, which is where some of the problems come in. The team is not getting more bang for their buck and hasn’t been since they started their rebuild. These contracts had to be good enough to entice players to come to Ottawa over another team, and all of a sudden, all of the cap space was gone before the team started to win games.
Senators’ Dwindling Prospect Pool
So, the Senators need to find cheap contracts, like entry-level deals, to boost their club. A perfect example is Ridly Greig, who already has 20 points in 43 games and could hit 15 goals – not a bad rookie season. Does Ottawa have anyone else like him who could add some inexpensive value to the team soon?
The short answer is no. Following Greig, The Hockey Writers’ Logan Horn ranked the Senators’ farm system 32nd in the NHL, and it hardly feels undeserved. With just Jorian Donovan and Zack Ostapchuk holding down the fort and a few others like Guenette, Angus Crookshank, and Roby Jarventie showing some promise, there’s not a lot to be excited about, and that’s all thanks to a forced timeline for success.
After the Senators added Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk, Chabot, and Norris, the rebuild was essentially declared over, and the team began to shift its focus to adding veteran talent to bolster the lineup. In 2022, Ottawa swung for the fences by acquiring Alex DeBrincat from the Chicago Blackhawks, which cost them the 7th and 39th overall selections that year and another third-round pick in 2024. That was the kind of player the team needed in the top six, and there was genuine optimism that he would stay long-term. Unfortunately, DeBrincat wanted far more money than the Senators had available, so he was dealt to the Detroit Red Wings before the start of this season.
Related: Senators Prospect Report: Nikitin, Halliday & More
In 2023, the Senators once again sat down without a first-round pick, which they had used along with a second-round pick in 2024 to add Jakob Chychrun from the Arizona Coyotes. That wouldn’t have been nearly as painful if the team hadn’t already sent their second and third-round picks in cap dumps for Nikita Zaitsev and Matt Murray. They also dumped a sixth-rounder to the Philadelphia Flyers for Patrick Brown. That left the team, which had just finished outside the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, with just five draft picks, three of which were in the seventh round.
Now, Chychrun may also be on the way out. Although the Ottawa native has stated that he wants to remain in Ottawa, his contract demands for next season will put a lot of pressure on management to move one high-profile defenceman. If he’s moved, that will leave the Senators with practically nothing from the last two drafts. Add in the stagnating development from former first-round picks Lassi Thomson and Tyler Boucher and the release of three of their six picks in 2021, and you have a team that has little future.
Senators Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place
So, what can the Senators do? They don’t have any cap space to take on more bad contracts, but they also don’t have any prospects to call up to fill in on the top six. It seems that the team has crammed themselves into a box that they can’t get out of unless they continue to mortgage the future by sending away picks for relief.
However, there is one option remaining – retention. For a team that has already found itself in cap hell, holding onto money may seem like the last thing the new owners would want to do, but it may be the only option. Tarasenko, who is on pace to hit 60 points, which is an upgrade from last year, has a $5 million deal – that is not an overpayment but difficult for any playoff team to afford right now. When he was traded last season to the New York Rangers, the St. Louis Blues retained 50% of his $7.5 million cap hit and were able to acquire a first-round pick, a fourth-round pick, and a depth player in Sammy Blais. With that pick, they added Theo Lindstein, who led Sweden’s defence with eight points in six games at the 2024 World Juniors.
That would be an excellent return for the Senators. Not only would they get $2.5 million in cap relief this season, but they could also get a top prospect later in the draft to add to their prospect pool as well as a valuable depth piece to help change up their bottom six. The Blues didn’t suffer too badly after trading their star winger for picks, either; as of this article, St. Louis sits tied for a wild-card spot with the Nashville Predators.
While the Senators certainly want to add veteran talent to their top six, this season is already done. It may be better to shift focus and add a few picks in the 2024 Draft. The team already has two first-round picks and three fourth-rounders, but with the current state of both the roster and the farm team, the Senators need to prioritize keeping their picks, not trading them away for temporary help.