If you want to succeed in today’s NHL, you need a top-pairing defenceman who can shoot right, and preferably one that complements his partner’s skill set. Just look at the Winnipeg Jets, who have allowed the fewest goals against this season. Josh Morrissey, an offensive-minded lefty, is paired with Dylan DeMelo, a right-handed defensive player. On the second pairing, they’ve got lefty Brendan Dillon with righty Neal Pionk. Look at any of the NHL’s top teams, the Vancouver Canucks, the Boston Bruins, the Colorado Avalanche, and the New York Rangers, and they all have a balanced top four without asking any of their best defencemen to play on their offside.
Compare that to the Ottawa Senators. Their current top pairing is Jake Sanderson, a left-handed two-way defender who has been showcasing some impressive offensive instincts, and Artyom Zub, a right-handed, shutdown defenceman. The second pairing, though, is usually Thomas Chabot, an offensive-minded lefty, and Jakob Chychrun, another offensive-minded lefty. It’s no wonder that there were concerns when former general manager Pierre Dorion acquired Chychrun for three high draft picks last offseason. Sure, he’s talented, but where is he going to play?
Forty-two games into the 2023-24 season, the Senators still haven’t figured that out. Chychrun’s most common defensive partner has been veteran Travis Hamonic, who averages just 14 minutes a night — the lowest among all of the Senators’ active defensemen. That implies that Chychrun, a top-pairing defenceman on any other team, is regularly lining up on Ottawa’s third pair. It’s no wonder, then, that his name has popped up in trade rumours ahead of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline.
But even if he’s not moved at the deadline, the Senators know that they’re gearing up for a blue-line battle that they haven’t seen in decades. The last time it happened, it resulted in the end of a successful era. If general manager Steve Staios doesn’t play his cards right, the end could be in sight for the Senators before it ever even started.
Chabot vs. Chychrun Is Closer Than You Think
On paper, Chychrun looks like the better of the two defencemen. He has been completely healthy the entire season, putting him on pace to reach 82 games for the first time in his eight-year career, while Chabot has once again missed a significant chunk of the season, dressing for just 20 games so far. As for points, Chychrun leads the Senators’ blue line with seven goals and 27 points, which could see him reach the 50-point plateau, also for the first time. Chabot, on the other hand, just scored his first goal this season on Jan 13, 2024, and is on pace to put up his lowest point total since his rookie season.
However, diving a little deeper reveals some interesting information. Chychrun leads the Senators with 44 giveaways, which averages to about one a game. Chabot, on the other hand, has just 14, which is an average of 0.7 giveaways per game. Making that stat worse is that Chychrun has committed 38 of those in the defensive zone, which is a full 15 more times than the next highest perpetrator. That’s a lot of potential scoring opportunities that the Senators don’t have to deal with from Chabot.
It may also be surprising to know that Chabot has been better defensively across the board. He has a higher Corsi for percentage, which means Ottawa controls the puck more when he’s on the ice, and he has more blocked shots and a lower on-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes than his fellow top defender. Chychrun isn’t far behind, but there’s enough of a gap in each category to notice that Chabot has been better overall while also bearing a lot of criticism for Ottawa’s slumps.
So Who Stays and Who Goes?
If the conversation ended after Chabot and Chychrun, the Senators wouldn’t have a problem. Any NHL team would kill to have two defencemen who can play big minutes and score 50 points on their top-four. However, the Senators already have Sanderson, who looks like he might be better than either of them, and given that he has a left-handed shot, that leaves just one spot for both Chychrun and Chabot on the second pairing. One of them has to go. But who?
Related: Trade Deadline Could Be Painful for the Ottawa Senators
Chabot is the more expensive defenceman, and with the Senators’ messy salary cap situation, it makes sense that his $8 million price tag would make him the top choice to move. He also has a stipulation in his deal that lets him add a 10-team no-trade list in July; moving him now would avoid having to work around that. However, it’s not that simple. While Chabot’s talent is unquestionable, his $8 million price tag for four more years, which increases to a $10 million base salary in 2024-25, is much harder to stomach. He’s also incredibly popular in Ottawa; he’s currently the longest-tenured Senator after being selected 18th overall in 2015 and was in the running for the captaincy right until the very end when it was given to Brady Tkachuk instead.
So that leaves Chychrun as the one who has to go. After all, his $4.6 million cap hit only extends until the end of next season, and given his performance in 2023-24, he’ll be up for a significant raise, likely in the same realm as Chabot. Added together with Sanderson’s extension, that would tie up $24 million on three defencemen, all of whom play the same side. But trading him now for someone like Calgary Flames’ right-shot defenceman Mackenzie Weegar would force the Senators to move another $2 million to accommodate his $6.5 million cap hit. That’s also less than ideal, especially after the high price Ottawa paid to acquire him.
Flashbacks to Redden vs. Chara
In 2005-06, the Senators were in a similar position to where they are now with Wade Redden and Zdeno Chara. Although drafted by the New York Islanders in 1995, Redden never played a game with the franchise that selected him. The Senators, who were having difficulty signing top pick Bryan Berard, flipped him to the Islanders for their top defenceman in Jan. 1996, and Redden made his debut in Ottawa the following season. He quickly rose through the depth chart, and before long, he was easily the Senators’ best defender, hitting 47 points in his fifth season with the team.
Chara didn’t come around until midway through 2000-01, following another deal with the Islanders that saw polarizing star Alexei Yashin finally leave Canada’s capital and get replaced with top prospect Jason Spezza. Known as a tough, stay-at-home defender on Long Island, he suddenly hit a new gear in Ottawa, putting up career highs in goals, assists, and points in his first season with the team.
However, given that he was a left shot, Chara had to play second fiddle to Redden, who had a firm grip on the top pairing. For a few seasons, that wasn’t an issue. Paired with Chris Phillips on a devastating shutdown line, he still put up 16 goals and 41 points in 2003-04 and 43 points in 2005-06. Meanwhile, Redden had 17 goals and 43 points in 2003-04, and, in 2005-06, finally hit that coveted 50-point plateau. All of that was taken into consideration when both of their contracts expired at the end of the season, and while GM Bill Muckler preferred to keep both, he settled for Redden, handing him a $13 million deal over two years. After all, he was the team’s top defender and the second-longest-tenured player after captain Daniel Alfredsson. It just made the most sense.
Unfortunately, despite making the safe choice, the Senators ended up with nothing in the end. Chara walked to free agency and signed a five-year, $37.5 million contract with the Boston Bruins and was immediately handed the captaincy. As the Bruins’ top defender, he hit the 50-point mark three times and led the team to the Stanley Cup in 2011. Meanwhile, Redden struggled with injuries and was a shadow of his former self. When his contract expired in 2007-08, he also chose to go to free agency and signed with the New York Rangers for six years at $6.5 million per season, during which he was famously waived and sent to the minors before being bought out in 2013.
A Crucial Decision for Ottawa
There was no way that the Senators in 2006 knew that Chara was going to be the future Hall-of-Famer he would become, nor did they anticipate Redden’s steep and sudden regression. That’s true of today, too. No one knows whether Chychrun will be able to maintain his 50-point pace or if Chabot will remain an injury concern. But one thing is for certain — the Senators can’t keep both. It might not happen at the deadline or even during the offseason, but eventually, Ottawa will have to choose between two of their best defenders. Right now, there’s no correct choice, so the Senators need to make sure they go with the player they can rely on. Otherwise, the Senators will come out with nothing.