Ottawa Senators fans are giddy this summer, certain that their squad will be battling for Lord Stanley’s silverware next spring. Don’t bet the farm on that Bytown hockey fans! Locking up one of the top three spots in the Atlantic Division to punch a ticket to the playoffs will be tough. I predict the Senators will be going to the postseason, but via a wild card spot.
I recognize that’s not a prediction many Ottawa fans will agree with. According to a poll done by The Athletic this spring, 93 percent of Sens fans believe their team will be a playoff contender in the Eastern Conference this season (from Ian Mendes, “Senators fan survey results, Part 1: NHL playoff expectations for Ottawa”, The Athletic, 8/5/23). As for making an extended Stanley Cup run, I haven’t heard that fantasy from very many Sens fans. So belief in castles in the sky does have its limits – even in this town.
Still, everybody in Ottawa knows that nothing short of a playoff appearance is acceptable next spring. If that doesn’t happen, there’ll be a lineup of limousines outside Canadian Tire Centre taking unemployed management and coaching staff to the airport to catch their all-expense paid one-way trips out of town.
So let’s take a look at the challenges the Senators will face in making the playoffs this season.
2024 Playoff Predictions for the Ottawa Senators
The betting industry gives the Senators +3800 odds of bringing home the Cup next year. I know most Ottawa fans aren’t given to vices like gambling, so for their sake, that means if they bet $10 on the Senators to win the championship and the Sens did, they would get $380. For perspective, bookies give the Toronto Maple Leafs +1100.
Of the top 10 teams considered to have the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup next spring, six are in the Eastern Conference – the New York Rangers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, New Jersey Devils, and the Maple Leafs. The Atlantic Division is home to three of these teams. In other words, the Senators live in a tough neighbourhood.
Die-hard Senators fans will light their hair on fire at the mere suggestion their team won’t be lacing up for an extended run next spring. After all, they’ll protest, our team has improved big time – hasn’t it?
Yes, by any measure the Senators have improved. Yet so have their rivals.
Without a doubt, the Senators have been winners this summer in the free agency market. It’s true Alex DeBrincat decamped for the Detroit Red Wings, but the 27 goals and 39 assists he notched last season will be more than made up by a healthy Josh Norris, potential 30-goal scorer Vladimir Taraskenko, and 40-point-a-year man Dominik Kubalik.
Grading the Senators’ Offensive Firepower
Here’s what I think the forward lines will look like on opening night on Oct. 11 against the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh.
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
| Brady Tkachuk | Tim Stutzle | Tarasenko |
| Drake Batherson | Norris | Claude Giroux |
| Kubalik | Shane Pinto | Ridly Greig |
| Parker Kelly | Mark Kastelic | Zach MacEwan |
Based on their actual individual performances last season, this year’s top six will likely rack up around 450 points between them. That assumes they all play 82 games and Norris is healthy and produces at his 2021-22 pace. That was the last time he was healthy. To be conservative, assuming Tarasenko notches around 20 goals and Norris 45, the Senators’ top six should register about 200 goals in the regular season.
How does this compare to the expected production of the top-six players on the other teams most likely to be battling for a playoff berth this year in the Atlantic Division? Looking at what the players did last year could be a reasonable approximation of what they might do in the upcoming season.
With that in mind, the table below shows the total goal and points production last year of the projected 2023-24 top six of the top four contenders for a playoff spot in the Atlantic. It assumes each of the top-six plays a full 82-game NHL schedule.
In other words, here’s what each team’s top six would produce in the upcoming season if they did what they did last year over a full season.
| Team | 2023-23 Goal Production of Projected 2023-24 Top 6 | 2023-23 Total Points Production of Projected 2023-24 Top 6 |
| Leafs | 186 | 470 |
| Panthers | 180 | 442 |
| Bruins | 175 | 386 |
| Lightning | 165 | 413 |
There’s no doubt that Ottawa’s firepower is the equal of any of its challengers in the Atlantic Division. Yet offense alone doesn’t make a hockey team the real McCoy.
The bottom six matters and that’s where the Senators fall short. A third line with Shane Pinto centering Ridly Greig and Kubalik would be respected by any opponent. Yet the projected fourth line of Mark Kastelic, Parker Kelly and Zack MacEwan needs to bring more than just energy and physicality. Contenders roll four lines, all with the ability to score.
Sizing Up the Ottawa Senators 2023-24 Defense
While Ottawa upgraded its blue line with the addition of Chychrun last season, it’s hard to make the case that the Senators have a back end that could be considered championship calibre. The Senators’ defenders are on the smaller side and as a group do not generate the offensive numbers of other Atlantic Division d-corps.
No Senators blueliner is in the same category as the Maple Leafs’ Morgan Reilly who was among that team’s six top point-getters. Nor is any the equal of the Panthers’ Aaron Ekblad, winner of the 2015 Calder Trophy as rookie of the year (although Ekblad is now on the injured reserve list).
The Bruins’ blue line is patrolled by Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. 2018 Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman, who sports two Stanley Cup rings, leads Tampa’s defense. Also cruising the Lightning’s blue line is two-time Stanley Cup winner Mikhail Sergachev.
How Ottawa Stacks Up Against Playoff Contenders in the Atlantic
Maple Leafs vs Senators
The Maple Leafs are loathed in Ottawa and I have heard a lot of chatter around town about Toronto’s decline. It’s true that they lost six players to free agency this summer, but they added to their blue line with the signing of John Klingberg. Forwards Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi will make up for the departure of Michael Bunting and Alex Kerfoot. Toronto also still boasts Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Auston Matthews.
What’s more, the Maple Leafs shored up their goal crease freeing themselves of Matt Murray and signing Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll and Martin Jones. Their depth between the pipes is respectable by any standard in the NHL.
Ottawa will find no easy points against Toronto. Let’s remember that the Buds took second place in the Atlantic Division with 111 points. The Senators notched 86 last year and in the last five full seasons, a team needed about 100 points to qualify for a playoff berth in the Atlantic Division.
Bruins vs Senators
Boston has seen an exodus of talent this summer with the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci leaving big holes down their middle. The Senators have the edge over the Bruins at centre.
Taylor Hall was shipped to the Chicago Blackhawks due to salary cap considerations while Dmitry Orlov, Bertuzzi, Connor Clifton and Garnett Hathaway left town as free agents in July. These departures have diminished the Bruins compared to the record-setting team they were in 2022-23.
Still, anyone thinking that they won’t be big and bad next season should remember that they are, after all, the Bruins. They have a solid, battle-hardened lineup.
Not only that, but they have a formidable duo between the pipes in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman with, respectively, a save percentage (SV%) of .938 and .920, complemented by a goals-against average (GAA) of 1.89 and 2.27 respectively.
There will be no easy points for the Senators in Beantown.
Panthers vs. Senators
As for the Panthers, they’re the equal of Ottawa in their forward lines with a top six consisting of Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghue, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and now Evan Rodrigues, who together last year lit up the goal light 169 times. If the Cats’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky returns to his playoff form this season he will give Senators snipers nightmares.
The Panthers won’t be giving up any easy points to Ottawa this season.
Sabres vs Senators
Buffalo is on the rise this year and will be battling hard for a playoff spot. Like Ottawa, they are a young team with talent. If their projected top six this season generates points over an 82-game schedule at the rate they did last season, they can expect to score 202 goals and record 443 points.
This should leave Senators fans to wonder whether they’ll soon see re-runs of the colossal Sabres-Senators playoff clashes of the 1990s.
Ottawa Senators Goaltending in 2023-24
Did Senators general manager (GM), Pierre Dorion solve his team’s problems in goal when he brought Joonas Korpisalo to town? Perhaps, but Ottawa’s goaltenders don’t stand out when compared to their competition in the Atlantic Division.
Related: Senators Could Regret Joonas Korpisalo Contract
Anton Forsberg is trying to come back from major surgery on both knees. Korpisalo has given hints that he could become a quality crease-keeper, yet he has been inconsistent and has never been a starting goaltender for any meaningful period of time.
What is a certainty this season is that if they don’t get goaltending then they are going nowhere.
Playoff Spot in 2024 Not a Sure Bet for Senators
Nobody can say with any certainty whether the Senators will see playoff action next spring. Although I don’t think they will be on the golf course early, making the playoffs will be no cakewalk.
The Senators won 39 games on 82 starts last season for a .476 win percentage. Sure, a disastrous first 20 games made them also-rans very early last year, but even so, their points production in the last half of the season on an 82-game basis was 92. That would only have been good enough to win them a wild card spot. What’s more, 92 points to win a wild card spot is low by historical standards. They’ll need more this season.
Much will depend this year on whether the hockey gods smile on the Sens. Like any team, they will need some luck and good health. Not only that but some breakout performances will be needed from a dark horse or two, and the new additions will need to find their place in the lineup and gel with the existing talent.
