The Ottawa Senators didn’t make a lot of changes during the trade deadline, but don’t expect that to continue into the offseason. General manager Steve Staios was very active leading up to the deadline, and although he only made one significant move, he reportedly learned quite a bit about what other managers thought about his team. That gave him and his team a much clearer picture of where they want to go and how they are going to get there.
One of the first things that Staios will need to do is get his team’s finances under control. Even with the cap expected to go up $4.2 million in 2024-25, the Senators will need to dump some salary to give themselves flexibility, which will be crucial in building a winning roster. That means that a number of players with expiring contracts and heavy cap hits are unlikely to return next season, regardless of their performance.
Joonas Korpisalo
The Senators’ goaltending has been an unmitigated disaster this season. Joonas Korpisalo, brought in to stabilize last season’s shaky crease, has been one of the worst goalies in 2023-24, posting a 17-21-4 record and a .888 save percentage (SV%) over 46 games, which sits fifth-worst in the NHL. Backup Anton Forsberg hasn’t been any better, though, sitting fourth-worst with a .885 SV% after 25 games, as well as the 10th-worst goals-against average, with a 3.42. Even though both are signed to multi-year deals, it’s highly unlikely the Senators return with the same tandem. So why is Korpisalo bearing the brunt of the criticism?
It comes down to money. Forsberg makes $2.75 million for one more season, whereas Korpisalo has four more seasons at a $4 million cap hit. The contract he signed on July 1 was never going to age well, but few expected it to sour so soon, and even though Forsberg has worse numbers, his shorter term and smaller cap hit make it a bit easier to swallow. With the Senators still needing to re-sign Shane Pinto and Mads Sogaard, plus a handful of minor leaguers, the team will once again be near the top of the salary cap ceiling. With Forsberg looking competent to finish off the 2023-24 season, Ottawa may decide to cut their losses and try to move him like they did with Matt Murray last season, or simply buy him out of the last four years.
Erik Brannstrom
It’s not that Erik Brannstrom is a bad defenceman. This season, he’s averaged 16:21 on the bottom pair and put up three goals and 17 points. His 2.3 defensive point share ranks third on the team, his 92 blocks rank fifth, and his 4.7 expected plus/minus sits seventh. He’s been more consistent defensively than Jakob Chychrun and more impactful across the board than both Travis Hamonic and Jacob Bernard-Docker.
Related: Senators Need to Trade Erik Brannstrom
However, the Senators have too many defencemen under contract next season; out of the eight currently on the roster, seven of them are signed for 2024-25. Brannstrom is the one outlier, and given that Ottawa needs a right-shot defender to help balance out their stacked left side, it’s unlikely that the undersized Swede will be qualified, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent. It also doesn’t help that he was one of Pierre Dorion’s guys – he was the prized return in the awful Mark Stone trade – and with the former general manager out of the picture, his time with the Senators is all but over.
Dominik Kubalik
There’s not much more to say about Dominik Kubalik’s time in Ottawa. After coming over from the Detroit Red Wings in the Alex DeBrincat trade, he’s put up just 15 points in 68 games. He’s been non-existent defensively, sporting the lowest expected plus/minus on the team with a minus-10.7, and his Corsi For percentage is the second-lowest among any player who has played at least 10 games. The only positive is that he’s put up 11 goals, which sit tied for eighth along with Mathieu Joseph and Ridly Greig. But that one stat won’t earn him another contract in Ottawa, and on July 1, he’ll be allowed to walk to free agency.
Lassi Thomson
Lassi Thomson took a big step back this season with just 18 points in 58 games with the Belleville Senators, and for the first time since 2020-21, he hasn’t received a single call-up to Ottawa. Last season, he had a respectable 33 points in 56 games along with a two-game stint in the NHL, and although it wasn’t where the team was hoping he’d be by now, it was a good result from a former top prospect. But, after getting claimed and then re-claimed on waivers to start the season, it looks like he lost a lot of the progress – and confidence – he made in 2022-23.
Thomson is still only 23 years old and there is a chance he could become a serviceable NHLer, but there’s no way he reaches his potential in Ottawa. The expectations placed on him when Dorion drafted him 19th overall in 2019 that he’d become a core member of the rebuild were unrealistic back then and they’ve only gotten more fantastical as he’s developed. Plenty of other defencemen have surpassed him on the depth chart, too, like Maxence Guenette and Jacob Larsson, both of whom need new contracts next season. Add in some strong performances from Tyler Kleven and Bernard-Docker and the incoming arrival of Jorian Donovan and Tomas Hamara, and there’s little chance that Thomson will receive a qualifying offer.
The 2024 offseason will be an important turning point for the Senators. So far, this core hasn’t been able to get over the hump and become a competitive team, and with a new manager at the helm, there won’t be any attachments to former players and moves. That could mean that several minor players who haven’t shown enough growth and need a new contract will be on their way out. Big changes are coming to Ottawa. The only question is whether it will be enough to get them back to the playoffs.