It’s been a long offseason, full of questions, several of which remain unanswered even as the Ottawa Senators are mere hours away from kicking off the 2023-24 season. Spirits have never been higher. With a core of some of the best young players in the league, the playoffs feel like a guarantee; TSN’s Craig Button said as much, adding that they could be this year’s New Jersey Devils, who came from a bottom-10 finish to win a playoff series for the first time since 2011-12. Not since the departure of Erik Karlsson have fans felt such optimism, and they are not shy about sharing it.
As for the Senators’ young talent, things are less glamorous. For the first time in a while, there are no obvious Calder Memorial Trophy candidates, and with the organization’s salary cap constraints, it’s unlikely many rookies will find themselves in a prominent role unless a player goes down with a serious injury.
Still, several promising players are itching to steal an NHL roster spot, and some made pretty convincing statements in training camp and the preseason. So, without further ado, here’s the Senators’ Prospect Report as we head into the new season.
Greig Makes the Team Out of Camp
It was expected that Ridly Greig, arguably the Senators’ best prospect, would make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old center played 20 games in Ottawa last season, putting up two goals and nine points. Over a full season, that translates to nearly 37 points; only six players scored more than that in 2022-23. His American Hockey League (AHL) numbers were even more impressive – in 39 games, he scored 15 goals and 29 points. Using an NHL equivalency calculator, that works out to 30 points over a full season, right on pace with what he scored.
Few expected him to become the Senators’ second-line center, yet that’s exactly where he is, with Daily Faceoff putting him between Drake Batherson and Mathieu Joseph and with time on the second power-play unit. This position is more needs-based than deserved, as the Senators still don’t have Shane Pinto signed, and Josh Norris looks like he’s still day-to-day despite his claims that he’s willing to play. But that doesn’t mean Greig can’t handle the role. As a rookie, alongside Batherson, Norris scored 17 goals and 35 points in 56 games after lighting up the AHL together.
The only concern is that Batherson and Joseph aren’t known as play-drivers, meaning that a lot of the pressure to generate offence will fall on Greig. He’s got the snarl that will make him a valuable member of the team, but will that be enough? It’s a tall ask for a rookie, but if anyone can handle it right now, it’s him.
Smejkal, Guenette Go Back to Belleville
In one of the more surprising moves yesterday, the Senators assigned Jiri Smejkal and Maxence Guenette to the Belleville Senators ahead of their season-opening matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s true the pair didn’t do enough in preseason to make the team. Smejkal, who joined the Sens in the offseason after spending the last seven seasons in Europe, played six preseason games and finished with a goal, four points, 11 hits, 10 shots, and regularly played over 16 minutes a night. Guenette wasn’t as noticeable, playing in just three games without registering a point, but still managed four shots and played over 24 minutes in one appearance. So, why aren’t they on the Senators?
It all comes down to money. Neither player makes over $1 million, but the Senators have just over $60,000 in cap space. So, even though Zack MacEwen went down with an injury in their final preseason game against the Montreal Canadiens, the Senators don’t have enough space to call anyone up, forcing them to go with a shortened roster of 11 forwards and six defencemen heading into the season.
Money will also dictate if Smejkal and Guenette are able to see much NHL action this season. Pinto still being unsigned has put the Senators’ playoff hopes in jeopardy. A team needs strong center depth to succeed, and right now, Ottawa doesn’t have any. So, any call-ups this season may come down to how desperate the Senators are to get warm bodies on the bench while still being cap-compliant.
Merilainen Takes Over Americans’ Crease
The Senators have another problem, albeit far less dire, in that they have too many goalies and not enough spots for them. Last season, Mads Sogaard promised to be a viable backup for 2023-24, but with the addition of Joonas Korpisalo, there’s no more room for him, which has pushed him down to the starting role in the AHL, where he spent 22 games in 2022-23. He’ll be joined by Kevin Mandolese, who backed him up for 17 games in 2022-23. Although Belleville will surely use more than just those two goalies (they started 10 last season), the pair will likely start most of the team’s games.
Related: Senators’ 20 Thoughts on 20 Spots: A Roster Breakdown
That doesn’t leave a lot of space for Leevi Merilainen, who established himself as one of Finland’s best goalies last season at 20 years old. He needs to play meaningful minutes to continue to develop, and in Belleville, that’s just not going to happen. So, the Senators decided to assign him to the ECHL’s Allen Americans, where he will take over the starting role ahead of training camp invitee Mark Sinclair.
For most players, a demotion to the ECHL is a bad sign, but for goalies, it’s all part of the path. Darcy Kuemper, Jaroslav Halak, Adin Hill, Alex Nedeljkovic, Philipp Grubauer, and even Jonathan Quick spent some time in the AAA league before becoming NHL starters. Goalies need ice time to develop, and even if the competition isn’t as tough as the AHL, it’s a great place to get some reps in. Chances are that Merilainen will come out of this season ready to steal the starting job in Belleville next year.
Toure Returns to Sudbury
It’s always exciting to see a player get invited to training camp and then sign his first NHL contract, and this year, that player is Djibril Toure, a 6-foot-4 defenceman who has been described as a late bloomer. He had a strong rookie camp, but he only managed to skate in one preseason game. On Sept. 27, he saw just 9:28 minutes of ice time, threw three hits, and was served two penalties.
Given his age, the Senators had the option to assign Toure to the AHL but opted to return him to the Ontario Hockey League’s (OHL) Sudbury Wolves. While he likely could handle the tougher competition, Belleville is already full on the blue line. Guenette’s reassignment now gives the team nine defencemen, and most of them have a legitimate case to be placed in the top four. Jacob Bernard-Docker and Tyler Kleven are the two most promising, but Dillon Heatherington and Jacob Larsson have the most experience. It’s a full roster, and Toure will likely be better served with another year in junior.
Thomson Reclaimed off Waivers
After watching the Senators make the baffling decision to place Lassi Thomson on waivers and subsequently lose him to the Anaheim Ducks, Ottawa struck back, scooping up their former first-round pick and assigning him to Belleville. It’s a strange situation where there aren’t any winners. Thomson, after feeling frustrated last season with his deployment, will now likely spend most of the season in the AHL, barring any significant injuries. Passing through waivers only gives him an exemption for 30 days; after that, he’ll have to pass through again, and the Senators likely don’t want to deal with that headache again.
The team doesn’t benefit here, either, though. They are now painfully aware that one of their former top prospects can’t cut it on one of the worst rosters in the NHL and see more clearly than ever that he has almost zero value on the open market. Ottawa likely needs to make a trade to free up cap space, which will require a sweetener, but there’s no chance that Thomson could be that addition. While this isn’t an end to the 23-year-old’s NHL journey, it’s made it far more complicated.
All in all, there is still a lot of hope for the franchise. With a new owner and several established young stars, the Senators will be a team to watch in 2023-24. We will see which prospects force Ottawa’s hand into giving them a shot at the NHL level. Not only do Guenette and Smejkal deserve call-ups, but Roby Jarventie proved that he can be an impactful player when given the chance. Will he get much of a chance to shine this season? Tune in to the next edition of the Senators Prospect Report to find out.
