The odds are against the Ottawa Senators making the playoffs this year. But don’t take my word for it. All you really need to do is listen to Senators general manager (GM) Pierre Dorion waffling on his team’s chances at a mid-September press conference explaining that, “People are talking playoffs. I don’t want to make bold predictions. I want to see our team play through camp. I think the fans will be really happy with how good and competitive we’re going to be.”
Related: Senators’ Latest Offer is Pinto’s Best Option
When parsing Dorion’s musings at press conferences, I sometimes feel a bit like Alice in Wonderland when she exclaims “curiouser and curiouser!” Pulling his punches and talking about his squad’s chances of competing for Lord Stanley’s mug next spring makes no sense since if they don’t, he’s done in Bytown. So even if he doesn’t think his team will make the playoffs, he may as well go out with all the bravado he can muster talking about the certainty of a playoff run next spring!
Even so, if a coroner’s report on the demise of the Senators’ season is written, there will likely be five reasons listed as the cause of death. Let’s take a look at what they might be.
Senators Are Weak Down the Middle
With Shane Pinto still unsigned and the return of Josh Norris anyone’s guess, the Senators will be soft down the middle. No team, especially in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division is going to be successful without strength at centre across all four lines.
Here’s what I predict the Senators’ forward lines will look like to start the season:
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
| Brady Tkachuk | Tim Stutzle | Claude Giroux |
| Drake Batherson | Ridly Greig | Vladimir Tarasenko |
| Dominik Kubalik | Rourke Chartier | Mathieu Joseph |
| Parker Kelly | Mark Kastelic | Zack MacEwan |
Greig is coming off his rookie year and has just 20 NHL games under his belt. Chartier has just two years in the league and during that time has played only 19 games. Kastelic has two years in the league and played 81 games, but during that time marked up the score sheet for a total of a meagre 15 points.
If the Senators go without Pinto and Norris for an extended period it’s hard to see them being competitive in the Atlantic. Not only that, it’s almost certain to lead to a poor start – something that has buried their season in the last two years by American Thanksgiving.
Senators’ Bottom Six Scoring Problem Just Got Worse
One affliction from which the Senators have suffered season after season is anaemic firepower in the bottom-six. The prognosis this year looks no better, especially absent Pinto at centre on the third line.
Kubalik brings about 20 goals and 45 points a season to Ottawa, yet that pales in comparison to the long gone out of town Alex DeBrincat’s points production for Ottawa last season.
Joseph is coming off an awful season last year during which he put up a paltry three goals and 18 points over a 56-game, injury-shortened season. It’s true that he struggled without Norris by his side but that hasn’t changed for the upcoming campaign with an unproven Chartier likely centring his line.
As for the fourth line, fans are left to wonder what has changed other than tough guy MacEwan replacing pugilist Austin Watson. Kelly and Kastelic are solid but there’s no reason to expect to see a boost in points production from them this season.
Contenders for Lord Stanley’s silverware roll four lines. All of them have the ability to put up points on the scoreboard. The Senators’ fourth line doesn’t and that’s a problem they must solve – pronto.
Senators at Risk for a Bad Start
The impact of not having Pinto and Norris in the lineup can’t be overstated. Even with the two young guns, Ottawa would have been on the bubble when it came to making the playoffs in 2023-24. Without them, getting off to a good start is once again in question.
No NHL team faces an easy schedule, but the Senators face a tough start in October playing eight games – two of which are against the Detroit Red Wings and the Buffalo Sabres who will likely contest Ottawa for a playoff wild card spot in the Atlantic Division. Not only that, but the Senators go up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes – all contending teams last season and likely to be again this season.
November has been the ruin of the Senators in past campaigns and this season their schedule in that dreaded month won’t be any easier. Over nine tilts they will go up against three division rivals including Tampa Bay, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers. They’ll also face off against the Los Angeles Kings, the Minnesota Wild and the Islanders – all playoff contenders from last season.
If that’s not enough, they’ll also face the Red Wings a second time. Rest assured that the boys from Motor City will want to make a statement to Ottawa about who gets a wild card playoff spot next spring.
The Atlantic Division is Hell
Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin was asked a few days ago on an NHL/National Hockey League Players Association (NHLPA) media tour about what it’s like to play in the Atlantic Division night in and night out. He said, “It’s like hell” going on to explain that “There’s superstars and young teams coming up, you can’t really count anyone out. It’s exciting.”
In the last few years the Boston Bruins, the Lightning, the Maple Leafs and the Panthers have battled for playoff spots in the division. None of them will yield an inch this season and each remains formidable despite reports of their decline. What’s more, the Senators will be clawing their way to a playoff spot against the Sabres and the Red Wings – two teams that are arguably their equal.
To put the Atlantic Division in perspective, teams from the division have made six appearances in the last five Stanley Cup Final series – Tampa (2020, 2021, 2022) Boston (2019), Montreal (2020) and Florida (2023).
Of the top 10 teams considered to have the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup next spring, six are in the Eastern Conference – the New York Rangers, the Lightning, Carolina, the Bruins, the New Jersey Devils, and the Maple Leafs. The Atlantic Division is home to three of these teams. In other words, the Senators live in a really tough neighbourhood.
The Senators won 39 games on 82 starts last season for a .476 win percentage. Sure, a disastrous first 20 games made them also-rans very early, but even so, their points production in the last half of the season on an 82-game basis was just 92. That would only have been good enough to win them a wild card spot. What’s more, 92 points to win a wild card spot is low by historical standards. They’ll need more this season.
Here’s how I think they’ll stack up this season against the teams favoured to win a playoff berth in the Atlantic.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Ottawa will find no easy points against Toronto. The Maple Leafs are favoured by odds-makers as one of the teams to win the Stanley Cup this year.
Let’s remember that the Maple Leafs took second place in the Atlantic Division with 111 points last season. The Senators notched 86 and in the last five full seasons, a team needed about 100 points to qualify for a playoff berth in the Atlantic.
What’s more, the Maple Leafs shored up their goal crease ridding themselves of Matt Murray and signing Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll and Martin Jones. Their depth between the pipes is respectable by any standard in the NHL.
As Maple Leafs’ GM Brad Treliving so eloquently put it, Toronto also added more snot to their lineup with the addition of Max Domi, Ryan Reaves and Tyler Bertuzzi. With these three riding shotgun, the Maple Leafs’ core four of William Nylander, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner will be free to work their magic without fear.
Bruins vs. Senators
Boston has seen an exodus of talent this summer with the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci leaving big holes down the middle. Taylor Hall was shipped to the Chicago Blackhawks due to salary cap considerations while Dmitry Orlov, Bertuzzi, Connor Clifton and Garnet Hathaway left town as free agents in July. These departures have diminished the Bruins compared to the record-setting team they were in 2022-23.
Still, anyone thinking that they won’t be big and bad this season should remember that they are, after all, the Bruins. They have a solid, battle-hardened lineup.
Not only that, but they have a formidable duo between the pipes in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman with, respectively, a save percentage (SV%) of .938 and .920, complemented by a goals-against average (GAA) of 1.89 and 2.27.
There will be no easy points for the Senators in Beantown.
Panthers vs. Senators
As for the Panthers, they’re the equal of Ottawa in their forward lines with a top six consisting of Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and now Evan Rodrigues, who together last season lit up the goal light 169 times. If the Cats’ goalie Sergei Bobrovsky returns to his playoff form this season, he will give Senators snipers nightmares.
Sabres vs. Senators
Buffalo is on the rise this season and will be battling hard for a playoff spot. Like Ottawa, they are a young team with talent. Even so, they struggle defensively and in goal they’re questionable. If their projected top six generates points over an 82-game schedule at the rate they did last season, they can expect to score 202 goals and record 443 points.
This should leave Senators fans to wonder whether they’ll soon see re-runs of the colossal Sabres-Senators playoff clashes of the 1990s.
Senators’ Blue Line is Questionable
While Ottawa upgraded its blue line with the addition of Jakob Chychrun last season, it’s hard to make the case that the Senators have a back end that could be considered championship caibre. None of them would be considered among the top-25 defenders in the league.
What’s more, the Senators’ blueliners are on the smaller side as compared to those of the Golden Knights’ for example. As a group, they do not generate the offensive numbers of other Atlantic Division d-corps.
Questions remain about Thomas Chabot. He has never lived up to the expectations the franchise held out for him when he was drafted as one of the Senators’ first-round picks in 2015. The Norris Trophy that many expected him to win has eluded him. Yet to be fair, injuries and a weak blue line forcing him to log excessive minutes has taken its toll on Chabot.
Related: Where Are They Now? Senators’ First Round Picks Since 2005
In the event of injuries, there isn’t a lot of depth for the Senators to rely on in Belleville. Lassi Thomson was claimed off waivers and Jacob Bernard-Docker simply isn’t an NHLer having failed to crack the lineup year after year. That he wasn’t claimed on waivers when put there on Oct. 2 is telling. Max Guenette and Tyler Kleven could step in to cover injuries but as rookies, how much does anyone think they can be relied upon in the Senators’ push for a playoff spot?
No Senators blueliner is in the same category as the Maple Leafs’ Morgan Reilly who is among that team’s six top point-getters. Nor is any the equal of the Panthers’ Aaron Ekblad, winner of the 2015 Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year (although Ekblad is now on the injured reserve list).
The Bruins’ blue line is patrolled by Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. 2018 Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman, who sports two Stanley Cup rings, leads Tampa’s defence. Also cruising the Lightning’s blue line is two-time Stanley Cup winner Mikhail Sergachev.
Despite Hype, Playoffs No Sure Bet for Senators
It’s important for the Senators and their fans not to believe their own hype. Making the playoffs for most teams in this league is tough even without the challenges a team like Ottawa now faces. Not only that, but Senators fans should not read too much into what they saw in the preseason matchups. The preseason is meaningless.
We’ll see starting this week just how meaningless it is.
