As the new NHL season approaches, every team in the league is pondering its chances for a long postseason run, or failing that, at least making progress toward one. At the same time, every general manager (GM) in the league has a nagging doubt or two about the team they are assembling and worries about possible shortcomings that could come back to bite them.
Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion is no exception. Here are three burning questions I’d wager may weigh on him as training camp looms and he starts to put the finishing touches on his opening roster.
His Job — Will New Ownership Change Senators’ Management?
The new Senators ownership group led by Michael Andlauer will put their stamp on the team, and I think Dorion and head coach D.J. Smith are at risk. What would be certain to seal their fate is another press conference next spring featuring Dorion and Smith explaining how they “woulda’, coulda’ and shoulda’ made the playoffs if it weren’t for” – fill in the excuses here.
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Steve Staios is rumoured to be coming to town to join Andlauer’s new team. The two were involved together as financial partners in the Hamilton Bulldogs of the Ontario Hockey League (OHL). Staios worked in various capacities in over six years with the club, including head coach, Under the two, the Bulldogs won two OHL championships.
With just over 1,000 games under his belt in the NHL and stints with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers in various management roles, Staios would be a natural for the GM role in Ottawa if it became available. In Edmonton, he was rumoured to be the heir apparent to Oilers GM Ken Holland but got passed over for a job as the club’s Chief Executive Officer of Hockey Operations reporting to Holland. Still, he remains a special advisor to the Oilers’ hockey operations.
Nobody knows what Andlauer and company will do, but new owners of any business like to bring in people they trust. I don’t see why Andlauer would be different.
Even so, nothing can or will happen with Senators’ management until Andlauer and his partners officially become the new team owners. That’s unlikely to happen before September.
Is Vladimir Tarasenko the Real Deal?
There’s been a lot of hype around Tarasenko coming to town this summer. The view is that he’ll add a lot to the Senators’ firepower. I’m not disputing he’s a pure goal scorer — a true sniper. If you look at his track record, when he plays a full season, he notches north of 30 goals and between 65 and 75 points.
Even so, he only scored 18 goals and 50 points with the New York Rangers and St. Louis Blues last season. It’s true that he played only 69 games, but still, that rate of goal and points production is well below his peak. Tarasenko needs to demonstrate that he can get back to his old form. Last year raised some doubts in my mind. Is he getting by on past glory?
It’s up to Smith to decide who to pair Tarasenko with. Does he displace Claude Giroux and skate next to Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk on the first line? That line would be one of the most potent offensive threats in the NHL. Yet, on the other hand, Smith could use Tarasenko to add firepower to his second line centered by Josh Norris with Dominik Kubalik skating at left wing.
How Smith slots Tarasenko in the lineup is another question surrounding the Russian star.
Will the Korpisalo-Forsberg Goaltending Duo Deliver?
This is probably the biggest question weighing on the mind of Dorion.
It’s been six long years since the Senators have seen postseason play, and a big reason they haven’t is because of problems in goal. In the last few years, those problems explain in large measure why they were out of playoff contention by American Thanksgiving.
Did Dorion solve the Senators’ goaltending problems when he picked up netminder Joonas Korpisalo this summer on the free agency market and paired him with Anton Forsberg for the upcoming season? Some think so.
Yet many say relying on the duo is a risky bet. If Forsberg stumbles out the gate or one of the two is injured, then what do the Sens do? They could turn to Mads Sogaard in Belleville. But then the question is whether he would be ready to step up to the NHL.
Would the duo be good enough for a Cup run? Probably not. They can’t be considered elite-level crease keepers — at least not in Bobrovskian terms. Nor in the same sense as Linus Ullmark, Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin or Connor Hellebucyk. In most years, that’s the level of goaltending a team needs to compete for Lord Stanley’s silverware.
Dorion believes in Korpisalo saying at a press conference when he signed the 29-year-old that, “he (Korpisalo) is just scratching the surface. He’s still got a lot of upside.” Even so, goalies surfing into town on a wave of high expectations can turn out to be flops. Just ask Sens fans about Matt Murray.
Korpisalo has shown flashes of brilliance at points in his eight seasons in the league – perhaps no more so than in the COVID-plagued 2020 Stanley Cup playoff tournament. In the Toronto bubble, he started in nine of 10 games his Columbus Blue Jackets played in the tournament and was almost invincible. He posted two shutouts, a .941 SV%, and set an NHL record with 85 saves in a Game 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning that went to five overtime periods before being settled.
Last season, over 39 games with the Blue Jackets and the Los Angeles Kings (the most he’s ever played in a single season), Korpisalo registered the best goaltending stats of his career, notching a save percentage (SV%) on the season at .914 comparable to Shesterkin, Andre Vasilevskiy and the 2022-23 Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights’ Adin Hill. Not only that, but he recorded an elite level goals-against- average (GAA) of 2.13 in Los Angeles last year – albeit over just 11 games.
What should be encouraging for Sens fans is that he put up these numbers in Columbus, backstopping a dumpster fire of a d-Corps there. What can he do with Ottawa’s better blue-line squad playing in front of him?
Still, his career numbers cast doubt on whether his performance in 2022-23 was the real deal. In four of his eight seasons, his SV% was below .900. In 2020-21 and 2021-22, his GAA was an abysmal 3.30 and 4.15, respectively. To be fair, throughout his NHL career, he has a .904 SV%, but still, that’s just the NHL average.
As the Senators’ presumptive starting goaltender, Korpisalo will probably play about 55-60 games this season, assuming he stays healthy. That’s about the league average for starters and will leave Forsberg with around 20–25 starts to handle. The question on everyone’s mind is whether Forsberg can backstop the Senators in those games to win at least half of them.
Much will depend on Forsberg’s knees. While now rumoured to be 100 percent and skating as of July, his past knee injuries make him vulnerable to more. Last year, Forsberg played only 28 games and hasn’t seen NHL action since last February, when went on the injured reserve list. Will he bounce back?
Forsberg and Korpisalo have a history together as teammates for three seasons with the Blue Jackets. The duo won a Calder Cup together with the American Hockey League’s (AHL) Lake Erie Monsters in 2016. Korpisalo explained, “we go a long way back, and we became friends immediately when we met each other. I’m super happy we created this tandem again in Ottawa.”
That the two are friends and have gone through battles together in the past is a big plus for the Senators this season. Even so, they need to combine for over a .900 SV% if they are to backstop their team to a playoff spot this season.
Where did that stat come from, you ask? Last season, according to Hockey Reference, 13 of the 15 teams in the league with a .900 SV% ended up qualifying for the playoffs. Ottawa’s .895 SV% placed it 20th in the league. (from Ian Mendes, “Shane Pinto’s contract, new arena and the return of Josh Norris: Senators mailbag, Part 1” The Athletic, 08/21/2023)
One thing is certain this year. The Senators need vastly improved goaltending to see postseason action. If they don’t get it, they are going nowhere. If they do, then there’s a chance Dorion and Smith may hang onto their jobs.
Playoffs or Bust for Senators in 2023-24
Nothing short of a playoff appearance will be acceptable for the Senators this year in the eyes of their new owners, management and fans alike.
To clinch a spot in the playoffs in the NHL, teams need a PTS% of at least .600. The wild card teams in the 2023 playoffs notched a PTS% of between .560 and .610. To put that in perspective, Ottawa was a .525 PTS% club last year. Improved from last year they may be, but moving from the .500 to .600 level will be tough. There’s no room for a poor start and mid-season slumps, as has been their habit the last few years.
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The Atlantic Division is the toughest in the NHL. Pundits are grading the Maple Leafs and Lightning as Cup favourites this season. It’s likely they’ll finish first and second. A battle between the Florida Panthers and the Boston Bruins for the third and final guaranteed playoff berth is probable.
That means Ottawa will duke it out with the Buffalo Sabres and the Detroit Red Wings for a wild-card spot. Ottawa will have its hands full with both of them.
