After the Colorado Avalanche acquired Sean Walker at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, he started strong, taking eight shots on goal in just his second game with the team and scoring two goals a few nights later. However, his performance seemed to decline over time.
Walker will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, and the Avalanche will likely want to keep him. The question is, can they afford him? Should they allocate their funds toward someone who will essentially be a third-pairing defenseman for them?
Walker’s Place in the Lineup
Walker’s skating and mobility were evident on arrival. The Avalanche preferred their defence to be active at both ends of the ice, so it was not surprising that the 29-year-old quickly adapted to their style of play. He frequently joined the offensive rush and contributed significantly to the penalty kill. During the playoffs, Colorado did not concede any power-play goals in over 8 minutes that Walker was on the ice for the penalty kill. If anything, they likely utilized him more in that role.
As time went on, his flaws became more apparent. Getting involved in the game is excellent, but Walker took penalties frequently and at inconvenient times. He is an aggressive player whose skating ability can help him out of many situations, but he seemed unpredictable, occasionally hurting the Avalanche. Additionally, there are few opportunities for power-play time in Colorado, which might not align with Walker’s long-term goals.
Walker’s Stats
In his first seven games with the Avalanche, Walker scored three goals and one assist. However, he only scored three points in the following 22 games, including 11 playoff games. This significant decrease in production may impact the amount he can ask for in free agency. Nevertheless, considering the relatively weak class of free agents on defense and the increasing salary cap, he is still likely to receive a reasonable offer.
Walker’s possession numbers during the regular season were decent, but they didn’t stand out. He also had a sub-50% expected goals-for percentage. His playoff numbers, however, are perplexing. In the playoffs, Sam Girard and Devon Toews missed a few games, so Walker moved to the left side to play with Cale Makar, who is a step up from his regular partner, Jack Johnson. Walker’s on-ice performance was quite good, with the Avalanche controlling 53% of the shot attempts when he was on the ice. He finished with a 55% expected goals-for percentage, but some bad luck on the ice worked against him.
Walker was on the ice for four Colorado goals and nine against, despite the Avalanche out-chancing and out-shooting the opposition with Walker out there. Given the numbers above, how could that be? Well, Colorado only scored on 4.65% of their shots with Walker on the ice, and goaltender Alexandar Georgiev saved just 88.16% of the shots with him on the ice. This gave Walker a remarkably low PDO of .928 – by far the lowest on the team. While the team did many things well with him on the ice, the luck could have gone his way.
Jack Johnson has the trust of the coaching staff, but the statistics indicate that he negatively impacted the performance of his teammates. When paired with Walker, the Avalanche only controlled 46% of the shot attempts during the playoffs, over 80 minutes of play. However, when Walker was on the ice with any other defenseman for 100 minutes, they controlled 58% of the shot attempts. This significant difference should be taken into consideration when assessing Walker’s performance.
What Walker’s Next Contract Could Look Like
This season, Walker earned $2.65 million and is expected to receive a significant pay raise after his outstanding performance. This year’s defense class is relatively weak, and with the salary cap increasing, Walker’s agent is likely excited about the potential for a raise. Additionally, Walker has an advantage as a right-handed shot, which is highly valued by NHL teams.
Related: Predicting Contracts for the Avalanche’s 2024 Pending Free Agents
Dobber Hockey predicts that Walker will sign a deal with a cap hit of around $4.5 million. That’s a reasonable expectation. He will turn 30 at the beginning of next season, so this is likely his best chance to secure a significant contract in his career.
Colorado has four defensemen making $4.5 million or more, so adding another might not be feasible. Additionally, the team already has two right-shot defensemen in their top four, so Walker has little room to move up in the lineup. Sam Malinski also vies for third pairing minutes and only makes $850k.
Verdict on Walker
The Avalanche are unlikely to re-sign Walker due to salary cap constraints, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin. So, it could be best to let Walker go in free agency. From his perspective, there might be a better opportunity for him on another team. Colorado values their top four players, and Walker could likely secure a more significant role on another team, similar to what he did with the Philadelphia Flyers.
There’s no question the Avalanche would make that trade again without hesitation. Acquiring Walker allowed them to trade Bowen Byram for Casey Mittelstadt, and there was no noticeable drop in on-ice performance between Walker and Byram. Only one team can win the Stanley Cup, so from that perspective, it may be considered a failure, but Walker performed well and did what was expected of him. Unfortunately, there may not be a place for him in the long run.
