Could Steven Stamkos finally be heading home this offseason? To kick off the Tampa Bay Lightning’s training camp, their captain met the media with some fireworks. He was asked about his expiring contract and the uncertainty surrounding his future, to which he replied, “To be honest, I’ve been disappointed in the lack of talk in that regard. It was something that I expressed at the end of last year—that I wanted to get something done before training camp started. There haven’t been any conversations.”
So, we have to ask: if he were to hit the open market, could the Toronto Maple Leafs be a top destination? All fans know that he would like to spend the entirety of his NHL career with the Lightning, but the organization may have other plans.
Lightning May Let Stamkos Walk
Lightning general manager (GM) Julien BriseBois also met with the media at the start of the camp, which brought even more fireworks. He said, “It’s not just about Steven playing out his career in Tampa; it’s about Steven staying in Tampa and the Lightning remaining a legitimate Stanley Cup contender year in and year out for the remainder of his tenure as a player on the club.”
That might suggest that BriseBois already has an idea in his mind about Stamkos’ future, and while that may change over an 82-game season, it also could become more definitive if Stamkos struggles. BriseBois also stated that he needs to “gather more information” before deciding on his club’s 2024–25 roster. They’ve made a string of signings in the last six months, including Brandon Hagel’s eight-year, $52 million contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $6.5 million. They also signed Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Cernak, and Anthony Cirelli to eight-year extensions, whose combined total was $159.6 million. These contracts are an indication that management has already made decisions about the future and their roster for next season.
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It is no secret that BriseBois was not happy with what his captain had to say to the media, and it could affect his future with the team. This season, Stamkos will now be surrounded by the question, where will he go if he leaves Tampa?
Is There a Fit for Stamkos in Toronto?
In July 2016, Stamkos was an unrestricted free agent (UFA), and he was listening to offers. It only makes sense that the Maple Leafs would have engaged in contract talks with the Toronto native. Unfortunately, he didn’t sign with them and chose to return to the Lightning, which was news that broke a lot of hearts in Leafs Nation, especially after they had John Tavares come home in 2018 and be one of the first star-caliber players to do so. It was bittersweet when Stamkos and the Lightning went on to win back-to-back Stanley Cups. Now, the 33-year-old could look at his hometown Maple Leafs as a potential landing spot to play a veteran leadership role to finish out his career.
Ultimately, it will come down to numbers, which can always cause negotiations to fall apart. But, at this point in Stamkos’ career, if he doesn’t re-sign with the Lightning, the Maple Leafs could be high on his list of options. He would need to consider taking a discount to come home and play alongside his long-time friend Tavares and company. He could take on the third-line center role similar to Ryan O’Reilly last season or play on the wing, similar to what the Lightning have done.
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Term and AAV are where the issues will come, but the Maple Leafs can make it work. Stamkos is 33 years old and will most likely go into free agency looking for a short-term deal. If Toronto offers him somewhere around $5.5 million for two seasons, he may consider it based on the time in his career and how close Toronto is to his family.
However, he could command a higher AAV, and there will be teams that offer him $7 million plus, which means Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving and other notable players will need to convince him to take less for a chance at the Stanley Cup. Next season, Toronto has a lot of players coming off their books, such as T.J. Brodie and John Klingberg, who will most likely hit the open market. Matt Murray and Jake Muzzin also come off the books and could be looking at retirement.
There are also the players who are expected to be re-signed, such as Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Nylander should expect a raise from his $6.9 million AAV this season to somewhere around $10 million per year if he’s re-signed. Marner and Tavares are eligible for extensions as of July 1, 2024, but are locked into their current deals for one more season. This will make it difficult to fit in Stamkos, but Treliving can realistically get it done if they allocate their available funds wisely.
Stamkos is a versatile player who knows what it takes to win and will try his hardest to take his team back to the Stanley Cup Final. He even played a period of an NHL playoff game during the COVID-19-shortened season in the bubble in 2020 despite dealing with a significant injury. He wants to win, and he knows how to win. That is what you want in a locker room, especially for a team like the Maple Leafs, whose core group is in the prime of their careers and can learn so much from a player like Stamkos. So, yes, I think Stamkos is a fit for Toronto, and bringing him home can be done if both sides can agree on a deal.
Stamkos and the Lightning still have one more season left to work out an extension before he becomes a UFA on July 1, 2024. There will be more to come about this story and how it will impact the relationship between both parties. However, if he does make it to the open market, hopefully, the Maple Leafs and Stamkos have a mutual interest.
