After trailing the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, 2-0 to start their first-round series, the Dallas Stars rallied back and won a tight Game 7 to keep their season alive. In the second round, they could have their backs against the wall again as they take on the second-most recent team to win a Stanley Cup; the Colorado Avalanche are in town.
The Avalanche, who mopped the floor in their first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets in five games, are no easy task. How can the Stars pull off a series victory and return to the Western Conference Final for the second straight season?
Stars’ Offense Has to Start Clicking
What made the Golden Knights such a formidable foe for the Stars was their ability to play such a low-scoring game. Dallas finished the 2023-24 regular season third in NHL scoring with an average of 3.58 goals per game, but that number cratered in the postseason once Vegas was on their plate. Despite winning the series, they had an average of 2.67 goals per game.
It would be inaccurate to chalk Dallas’ scoring struggles down to anything but the Golden Knights being a strong defensive team. They had an elite 57.9 expected goals percentage (xGF%), which was by far the best for any team that had a seven-game series.
Vegas is a direct contradiction to the way the Avalanche play. They had the third-best offense in the NHL based on expected goals for and the ninth-worst defense based on expected goals against. The Golden Knights beat contenders by playing low-event hockey, while the Avalanche beat contenders by playing high-event hockey. This will certainly be an adjustment for the Stars.
In this series, the Stars will need some more offense. Playing defense isn’t going to be nearly as easy, so they will be in a position to outscore some of their problems. Against Vegas, they didn’t get a lot of that offense from individual players.
Only three of 20 Dallas skaters had more than three points in the series, and only one of them had more than five. A lot of key players for the Stars failed to score, with Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski combining for two goals and two assists for four points in 28 games. Just for reference, they combined for four goals and 13 assists for 17 points in the Stars’ last seven games of the regular season. Losing this amount of offense is significant, and it will have to change.
Even a player like Jason Robertson, who had a great series, could use a boost in production. He had three goals and five points overall, but he wasn’t too productive after his first couple of games. If all of this changes, Dallas could go toe-to-toe with Colorado’s offense.
Can Johnston Do it Again?
The Stars’ biggest hero in the first round was one of the youngest players in the playoffs: 20-year-old Wyatt Johnston. He stole the show and made a league-wide name for himself, scoring an overtime-winning goal and seven points in total to take down the Golden Knights. After the regular season, it seemed as though he could take that next step into being a first-line caliber player in 2024-25. However, he has done so early.
Related: Dallas Stars’ Wyatt Johnston Showing Elite Potential
Whether or not he can dominate again is the big topic of discussion. He has the talent to be one of the Stars’ best players in the postseason despite his age; that much is apparent. But can he really be a point-per-game player in the playoffs overall?
When the Stars needed a big goal, Johnston was right there. At least to some degree, there should be confidence that he can continue that in the second round. He has officially emerged as a core player for Dallas, perhaps being the best centerman on their roster ahead of Hintz and Tyler Seguin.
If Johnston can be anywhere as good as he was in the first round, he will be doing more than what should be required from him. He was arguably the best skater for either team in the Vegas series, so matching his level of dominance shouldn’t be the expectation. However, some scoring production will be needed. Falling off a cliff would be a death sentence for the Stars – there is some weight on his shoulders now.
Stars Need Games 3-7 Oettinger
Early on against the Golden Knights, goaltender Jake Oettinger was having a rotten series. Before Game 3, he had a save percentage (SV%) of .850 and a 3.10 goals-against average (GAA). From Game 3 onward, he had a .946 SV% and a 1.53 GAA. He went from a liability to the difference-maker of the series in a flash, being everything Dallas could have asked for and much, much more.
While Oettinger shouldn’t be expected to be essentially flawless like he was against the Golden Knights after his early struggles, he needs to at least be decent. The Avalanche have a much scarier offense than Vegas – it won’t be easy to keep pucks out of the net. At the same time, he can’t actively cost his team games.
The Golden Knights had trouble generating high-quality looks against the Stars after the first couple of games, and that was noticeable in Oettinger’s stats. He usually has no problem with low-danger opportunities, so once his defense started to play better he did the same.
Unfortunately, the Avalanche are very good at generating quality scoring chances. Connor Hellebuyck, a 2023-24 Vezina Trophy finalist, faced 51 high-danger shots, ranking second in the playoffs. As a result, the Avalanche had their way with the once-dominant goaltender – he had a .865 SV% in the postseason.
If the Stars aren’t careful, this can happen to them too. Dallas has a strong defense, but they really can’t afford to have a high-danger shootout with the Avalanche. They can hold their ground as they are one of the best offensive teams in the NHL, but they don’t have a superstar quite like Nathan MacKinnon, either. He is virtually unstoppable once he gets going; Oettinger has to shine.
Even though this is just a second-round series, it might end up being the most thrilling of the postseason. It begins on May 7 at American Airlines Center in Dallas. They will want to get off to a better start this time.