The Dallas Stars were never going to get a real “reward” for finishing with the best record in a competitive Western Conference, and now they’re matched up with the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights, the team that eliminated them in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Related: 3 Keys to Success for the Golden Knights in First Round vs Stars
Even though the Golden Knights are a formidable opponent, the Stars should beat them. How can they ensure the NHL will have a new champion in 2024?
Stars Need to Play Their Game
If the Stars can stick to their game they should be fine in this series. They finished the regular season with 113 points compared to the Golden Knights’ 98. When they are at their best, which is often, their puck possession game is lethal.
When the Stars get rolling, they are a tough team to stop. If the Golden Knights can’t generate offense because they are stuck in the defensive zone, this series will be pretty short. Overwhelming opponents is what Dallas does very well.
Though the Golden Knights got the better of the Stars in the season series, winning all three games, the two teams last played on Dec. 9. From that point on, Dallas had a 37-13-6 record while Vegas went 27-24-3. Their seasons went in completely different directions, and the Stars are playing at a different level right now.
Vegas struggled with injury during that time and are still not fully healthy. Captain Mark Stone suffered a lacerated spleen in February, an injury he is probably not fully recovered from despite being cleared to play in Game 1. Other key players such as Shea Theodore, Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, and Adin Hill also missed a chunk of time this season.
As for the Stars, they have a lot going for them. They arguably have more talent, are the healthier team, and are riding a 12-2-0 record in their last 14 games. This is the Stars’ series to lose.
Oettinger Needs to Shine
Even if the Stars have the advantage, games can be close when two great teams face off in the postseason. Many factors can change a series, but the Stars need goaltender Jake Oettinger to be fantastic to avoid an upset. If there is one advantage the Golden Knights have over the Stars, it’s their play in goal.
Oettinger is talented, but he didn’t get great results this season. He was decent with a .905 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.72 goals-against average (GAA) – both stats have improved recently – but the Stars will need more than that. While the team won’t need his sensational .954 SV% performance from the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, he can’t have a .895 SV% as he did in 2023.
Sub .900 goaltending can’t happen. The Stars got lucky with their playoff matchups last season, facing the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken, who both missed the playoffs this season, but the Golden Knights ran with the goaltending advantage, almost sweeping the Stars, leading 3-0, before settling for a series win in six games.
Oettinger can take over games, but he hasn’t done it as consistently as he used to — that has to change. To his credit, in the last two months of the season, he had a .913 SV% and a 2.26 GAA in 16 contests. That play should be enough to help Dallas win this series, but anything less could put them in jeopardy.
Look to the Benn-Johnston-Stankoven Line
The Stars’ third line of captain Jamie Benn and youngsters Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven has been superb since they were put together in February. The trio encapsulates everything great about the Stars, and they will have to continue to be great.
Vegas has not faced this line yet, and they are as good as any trio in the NHL right now, holding an expected goals percentage (xGF%) of 64.5 at even strength. With 228 minutes played together, they have been on a heater for a while. At this point, the numbers are so good that they might be better than the top line.
One of the Golden Knights’ biggest strengths is their depth, but the Stars’ young, high-end talent has few rivals in the league. The Benn-Johnston-Stankoven trio could give Vegas fits, potentially winning them this series. If it sees regression, for whatever reason, that will be an issue. They are the ultimate X-factor.
The Stars have the all-important home-ice advantage in this series, and their 26-11-4 home record versus Vegas’ 18-17-6 record on the road might come in handy. All of these factors might help them exorcise their 2023 demons and perhaps make a deep run to win the Stanley Cup.