The three-game winning streak changes a lot for how the New York Islanders will approach the trade deadline. A week back, they looked like a team that needed to sell and start trading a few players away with the hope of retooling the roster. Now, they head into the week as buyers looking to make a push for the playoffs and the Stanley Cup, especially with general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello running this team.
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The Islanders are 26-20-14 and in the middle of the Metropolitan Division, making it difficult for the team to approach the deadline. That said, there are a handful of avenues for Lamoriello to take from going all-in to making a few minor trades. So, let’s look at the options starting with one approach is a reasonable one but it is sure to be avoided by the longtime GM.
Islanders Still Retool
The glass half-empty approach is to view this hot streak as false hope. The Islanders look better than it is. On Feb. 24, they lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2 and looked noticeably inferior to the playoff-caliber team. The sky looked like it was falling and the clock was ticking on Lamoriello’s tenure as GM. They’ve looked better recently but how they played a few weeks back could be indicative of what type of a team they are. The argument can be made that the Islanders got hot at the right time.
Some of the underlying stats still show the Islanders as a below-average team. They score only 2.98 goals per game and allow 3.28 goals per game, putting them in the bottom half of the league in both categories. In more advanced stats (thanks to the discovery of NHL Edge in recent days by yours truly), the Islanders are in the 50th percentile or worse in skating distance, shots on goal, shooting percentage, and offensive zone time. In short, they are a slower, less explosive team that doesn’t create a lot of scoring chances or find the back of the net when they have them.
The cliche is that it’s best to sell high and specifically, this would be the ideal time to trade Brock Nelson. He has 28 goals in 60 games this season and the second-line center won’t be a free agent until after the 2024-25 season. His value is at its highest now and the Islanders could receive a significant return if they move him.
With the Islanders in the playoff mix, that won’t happen. The season has been a roller coaster yet somehow they only trail the Philadelphia Flyers by five points in the standings and they’ve played two fewer games in the process. A strong finish to the season will allow them to leap past the Flyers and in the process, secure the third-best record in the Metropolitan Division. With this in mind, as intriguing as it might be to do so, expect Lamoriello to do anything but sell at the deadline.
Lamoriello Keeps The Team Intact
Considering Lamoriello’s history, this is the most anticipated path. A quiet summer is expected and a big move at the trade deadline is a rarity. In 2018-19, Lamoriello’s first season as the team’s GM, the team was surging to a playoff spot at the trade deadline but he didn’t make a significant move, trusting the roster in place (they lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in the Second Round). At the 2022 trade deadline, the Islanders were out of playoff position and a move or two would have set them up for long-term success. They failed to make a trade and instead, gave Cal Clutterbuck a two-year contract extension and extended Zach Parise for one season.
The Islanders enter the trade deadline in need of making a move one way or another but as Lamoriello’s stated in the past, he trusts the group that’s in place. Keeping this team the same would be the worst-case scenario as it wouldn’t upgrade the Islanders for a playoff push and if they missed the playoffs, it wouldn’t set them up for success next season. Silence from Lamoriello and a lack of movement could be the final straw for an otherwise patient ownership group. It could be the lasting impression of his tenure as the team’s GM.
Lamoriello Makes a Few Minor Additions
This is the most likely for Lamoriello, especially if the Islanders are looking to make a push for a playoff spot. The Pierre Engvall trade last season is a great example of what Lamoriello would like to do. The move didn’t cost the Islanders much (a third-round draft selection) and it helped upgrade the middle of the forward unit. While Engvall has disappointed this season with only seven goals and 12 assists, his presence in the lineup last season where he contributed five goals and four assists in only 18 games helped put the Islanders into the playoffs.
The question is who the Islanders could get at a low price while still helping round out the roster? Jack Roslovic on the Columbus Blue Jackets is one player to look out for. He’s having a rough season with only four goals and 16 assists but the 27-year-old forward has proven he can provide a spark to the middle of a forward unit. As a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA), he wouldn’t cost Lamoriello much and the Blue Jackets would eagerly trade him as a team looking to rebuild. A veteran forward to watch out for would be the Anaheim Ducks Adam Henrique who started his career with the New Jersey Devils when Lamoriello was the GM of the team. He wouldn’t put the offense over the top but he’d be a reliable middle-six center who would both create scoring chances and find the back of the net himself.
On the defensive unit, the low-cost addition could be a two-way player like Mathew Dumba. He’s having a rough season with the Arizona Coyotes but has a great shot from the point and would help out Noah Dobson, who has been the sole offensive weapon at the point this season.
The Islanders have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL and don’t have the draft capital to make a big move (technically, they have a first-round pick but let’s not give Lamoriello any ideas here). It makes a blockbuster move unlikely while a minor trade is reasonable and wouldn’t set the franchise back if it doesn’t work out.
Lamoriello Makes a Splash
The fans are eager for Lamoriello to make a big trade, one that mirrors the Bo Horvat trade that was made during the 2023 All-Star Break. A trade for Jake Guentzel, Pavel Buchnevich, or Tyler Toffoli would signal that Lamoriello is willing to pull out all the stops to allow this team to compete for the Cup. Considering the price tag for each of the three skaters will be at least three if not more pieces, it’s more wishful thinking that Lamoriello will make such a move. It’s also not the type of move a Cup contender usually makes.
The teams that make the splash moves tend to not make deep playoff runs. Last season, the Vegas Golden Knights made a few minor additions and their biggest acquisition was Ivan Barbashev, a middle-six forward who cost them only a top prospect in Zach Dean. The 2023 trade deadline saw Patrick Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, and Jakob Chychrun moved yet the Golden Knights were the team that ended up winning the Cup and they did so without making any blockbuster trades. They aren’t the outlier either. The Colorado Avalanche and the Lightning set themselves up for Cup runs by adding depth players and not by chasing stars.
The Islanders as long as Lamoreillo is running things are similarly going to avoid a big trade. A few small trades won’t catapult them into the playoffs but will round out the roster. This roster has a great core in place but the production drops after the top four or five players. They need a few skaters who can step up on the later forward lines and the second or third defense pair which would prepare them for the playoffs if they end up sneaking in.