THW’s Big Lists Revisited: Breakout Candidates

• THW’s Big Lists Original: Comeback
• THW’s Big Lists Original: Busts
• THW’s Big Lists Original: Breakout
• THW’s Big Lists Original: Rookie Sleepers

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• THW’s Big Lists Revisited: Comeback
• THW’s Big Lists Revisited: Busts
• THW’s Big Lists Revisited: Rookie Sleepers

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This is the second of a four-part series reflecting on the Big Lists that I posted in early September to preview the 2014-15 NHL season.

Looking back on the Breakout candidates, my successes outnumbered my failures, but it was a mixed bag of results as it always is when attempting to predict which young players will take a step towards stardom.

I’ve since combed through my 126 Breakout candidates — the most of any Big List — to single out these 30 players for better or worse.

Big Success

Vladimir Tarasenko (F St. Louis)

Playoff Stats: 6 GP-6 G-1 A-7 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 77 GP-37 G-36 A-73 PTS

Last Season Stats: 64 GP-21 G-22 A-43 PTS

Then: He took a step forward as a sophomore in 2013-14 with 21 goals and 43 points in 64 games, but injuries derailed his momentum. If Tarasenko can stay healthy in 2014-15, he could go 30-30 for 60 points.

Now: Tarasenko is a full-blown superstar after leading St. Louis in scoring both in the regular season and the playoffs. He scored some real highlight-reel goals and was a consistent force from start to finish. The Blues are planning to lock him up to a long-term mega-deal this summer.

Dougie Hamilton (D Boston)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 72 GP-10 G-32 A-42 PTS

Last Season Stats: 64 GP-7 G-18 A-25 PTS

Then: He looked great in the playoffs and has been learning the ropes from one of the best in Zdeno Chara. He had 7 goals and 25 points in 64 games for 2013-14 (9-32 over 82), but I think he’s going to easily hit 10 goals and 40 points in 2014-15.

Now: I nailed that one, as Hamilton was arguably Boston’s best player all things considered this season. He stepped up his game while Chara was sidelined by injury and might have topped 50 points if not for getting hurt late in the season. Hamilton is a restricted free agent this summer and rumours are swirling about offer sheets potentially coming the way of this 6-foot-5 blue-liner who just turned 22 last week.

Nikita Kucherov (F Tampa Bay)

Playoff Stats: 26 GP-10 G-12 A-22 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 82 GP-28 G-36 A-64 PTS

Last Season Stats: 52 GP-9 G-9 A-18 PTS

Then: His upside is huge and he could be a point-per-game guy within a couple years. That sounds like lofty praise for a guy who only had 9 goals and 18 points in 52 games for 2013-14. Expect him to double that total in 2014-15 and be closer to 20 goals and 40 points.

Now: Kucherov exceeded everybody’s expectations, including mine, by topping 60 points as the youngest member of Tampa’s Triplets line with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. That bodes well for the future, considering that trio will all still be 25 and under next season — Kucherov just turned 22, in fact he shares a June 17 birthday with Hamilton. I would expect more of the same from Kucherov in 2015-16, somewhere between 60 and 80 points.

Brock Nelson (F N.Y. Islanders)

Playoff Stats: 6 GP-2 G-0 A-2 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 82 GP-20 G-22 A-42 PTS

Last Season Stats: 72 GP-14 G-12 A-26 PTS

Then: Expected to start the season on the top line with John Tavares and Kyle Okposo. If that trio comes to fruition, Nelson will be the biggest benefactor.

Now: Nelson did get a bit of playing time on the top line, but he was also productive in a secondary scoring role alongside fellow sophomore Ryan Strome, who put up 50 points. Nelson slowed down in the second half after getting off to a strong start, but he should be good for 25 goals and 50 points next season.

Ryan Strome (F N.Y. Islanders)

Playoff Stats: 7 GP-2 G-2 A-4 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 81 GP-17 G-33 A-50 PTS

Last Season Stats: 37 GP-7 G-11 A-18 PTS

Then: He could produce even more points than Nelson. At least one of them will hit 50 points, possibly 60-plus.

Now: I spoiled Strome’s point total by mentioning him with Nelson, but they will get be getting lumped together for the foreseeable future. Tampa has the Triplets, but these two could become known as the Islanders’ twins. They do share a pretty striking resemblance in their ESPN profile photos: Strome and Nelson.

Tyler Toffoli (F Los Angeles)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 76 GP-23 G-26 A-49 PTS

Last Season Stats: 62 GP-12 G-17 A-29 PTS

Then: He played a key role in the Kings’ Cup run with 7 goals and 14 points in 26 games, which pro-rates to 22 goals and 44 points over 82 games. That should be doable, and Toffoli could push for 25 goals and 50 points in 2014-15.

Now: I was bang-on with Toffoli, who has developed great chemistry with Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson on That 70s Line for the Kings. Expect more of the same from Toffoli next season, as he settles into a perennial 25-goal, 50-point player for the next decade.

Cory Schneider (G New Jersey)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 69 GP-.925 Save %-2.26 GAA

Last Season Stats: 45 GP-.921 Save %-1.97 GAA

Then: He might seem out of place on this Big List, but believe it or not, Schneider has never won more than 20 games in a season and only won 16 during his Devils’ debut in 2013-14. I believe he’s going to double that win total in 2014-15, stealing several victories and getting serious consideration for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie.

Now: Schneider won 26 games this season, establishing a career high but coming six short of doubling last season’s total. He posted similar stats over a much bigger sample size but didn’t quite steal enough victories to get the Devils into the playoffs or to be named a Vezina finalist. He had to be in the running, though, and likely will be for years to come. Some people consider Schneider a top-five goalie in the league at this point and it is difficult to dispute that.

Jake Allen (G St. Louis)

Playoff Stats: 6 GP-.904 Save %-2.20 GAA

Regular Season Stats: 37 GP-.913 Save %-2.28 GAA

Last Season Stats: 15 GP-.905 Save %-2.46 GAA

Then: He’s a rookie and he’ll start off as a backup to journeyman Brian Elliott, but Allen is going to get his chances and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the most of them. I think he’ll be the Blues’ No. 1 by Christmas.

Now: Elliott had an all-star season, but Allen eventually supplanted him and took over as the starter for St. Louis in the playoffs. The Blues ended up losing out in the first round to Minnesota, but Allen wasn’t really to blame. With Ken Hitchcock returning as head coach next season, it’ll be interesting to see whether he declares Allen the starter for opening night or if that platoon system will continue in St. Louis.

Sami Vatanen (D Anaheim)

Playoff Stats: 16 GP-3 G-8 A-11 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 67 GP-12 G-25 A-37 PTS

Last Season Stats: 48 GP-6 G-15 A-21 PTS

Then: He’s pretty underrated even after putting up 21 points in only 48 games in 2013-14. That pro-rates to 36 points over 82 games, the same number Cam Fowler managed in 2013-14, so I could see a similar jump from Vatanen for 2014-15.

Now: I’m no Nostradamus, but I called that progression almost perfectly. Perhaps it wasn’t all that surprising, but Vatanen should be good for around 40 points a season for the next few years, possibly even topping 50 a couple of times.

Anton Stralman (D Tampa Bay)

Playoff Stats: 26 GP-1 G-8 A-9 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 82 GP-9 G-30 A-39 PTS

Last Season Stats: 81 GP-1 G-12 A-13 PTS

Then: He emerged as arguably the Rangers’ best defenceman in the playoffs, yet was allowed to leave as a free agent. He signed a big contract with the Lightning and could certainly live up to it. Despite only scoring 1 goal and 13 points in 81 games for 2013-14, paired with Marc Staal in a shutdown role, Stralman had 6 goals and 34 points in 73 games with Columbus as a career high in 2009-10. I’d venture to guess he’ll be closer to those totals again (at least 25 points) in 2014-15.

Now: Stralman achieved new career highs for goals and points, partnering with Victor Hedman on Tampa’s top pairing. Stralman should be in that 30- to 40-point range again next season as a reliable two-way defender in the prime of his career.

Jonathan Huberdeau (F Florida)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 79 GP-15 G-39 A-54 PTS

Last Season Stats: 69 GP-9 G-19 A-28 PTS

Then: Reunited with his former junior coach Gerard Gallant, Huberdeau has the potential to burst into a point-a-game type player, and I’m thinking 60 points minimum in 2014-15. After only scoring 9 goals and 28 points in 69 games in 2013-14, the third overall pick in 2011 might be overlooked despite his 14-goal, 31-point rookie campaign in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season.

Now: I set the bar a little too high for Huberdeau, but he didn’t disappoint in setting career highs for goals and points under Gallant. Huberdeau is a front-line player going forward and should reach the 60-point plateau next season.

Brandon Pirri (F Florida)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 49 GP-22 G-2 A-24 PTS

Last Season Stats: 49 GP-13 G-12 A-25 PTS

Then: One of my favourite sleepers for 2014-15 despite being stuck behind the aforementioned young guns (Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, Sasha Barkov, Jimmy Hayes).

Now: Pirri’s point total actually went down, but only because he put up Cy Young numbers. His goal total shot up and the assists are bound to follow next season when Pirri will again be a Breakout candidate with a chance to top 40 points.

Mike Hoffman (F Ottawa)

Playoff Stats: 6 GP-1 G-2 A-3 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 79 GP-27 G-21 A- 48 PTS

Last Season Stats: 25 GP-3 G-3 A-6 PTS

Then: He’s another big-time AHL scorer trying to earn a regular role in the NHL. He’ll have to beat out some top prospects for a spot in 2014-15, but if successful, Hoffman could be a 10-goal, 30-point guy.

Now: I expected a minor breakout, not a major one, but Hoffman lit it up pretty good in his first full season. He’s a legitimate NHLer now, but he’ll be hard pressed to improve on those totals next season. I would think 20 goals and 40 points is a realistic encore for him.

Jakob Silfverberg (F Anaheim)

Playoff Stats: 16 GP-4 G-14 A-18 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 81 GP-13 G-26 A-39 PTS

Last Season Stats: 52 GP-10 G-13 A-23 PTS

Then: He very well could have a bigger impact than Devante Smith-Pelly, especially offensively, with 20 goals and 40 points well within reach if he ends up playing with Ryan Kesler as projected for 2014-15.

Now: Silfverberg’s breakout really didn’t happen until the playoffs. Not that he was bad during the regular season, but his production was essentially on par with what most expected. Silfverberg found another gear in the post-season and became a point-per-game player, which will make him a Breakout candidate again for next season with the potential for about 60 points.

Brayden McNabb (D Los Angeles)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 71 GP-2 G-22 A-24 PTS

Last Season Stats: 12 GP-0 G-0 A-0 PTS

Then: If he’s not on the roster to start the season, he’ll be the first injury call-up and could also solidify a spot sooner than later. He was a nice buy-low by Dean Lombardi.

Now: McNabb made the team and wound up partnering with Drew Doughty for large stretches of the season. That helped pad his point total, but McNabb earned many of those helpers on his own merit too. He’s developing into a permanent top-four defender and could top 30 points next season.

Big Fail

Mikael Granlund (F Minnesota)

Playoff Stats: 10 GP-2 G-4 A-6 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 68 GP-8 G-31 A-39 PTS

Last Season Stats: 63 GP-8 G-33 A-41 PTS

Then: He really came on strong after the Olympics and into the playoffs. It’s only a matter of time until he’s a point-per-game player and surpasses his compatriot Mikko Koivu on the depth chart, but 60 points is a realistic expectation for 2014-15.

Now: Granlund mysteriously regressed or plateaued this season, registered two fewer points in five more games despite getting plenty of time on the top line. He’s got all the talent in the world and really should be good for 60-plus points. Maybe next season? He’ll be back on the Breakout list.

Tomas Hertl (F San Jose)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 82 GP-13 G-18 A-31 PTS

Last Season Stats: 37 GP-15 G-10 A-25 PTS

Then: No surprise here, he would have challenged for the Calder if not for injury, and could be a 60-plus point guy in 2014-15.

Now: Hertl just didn’t have a very good season, for whatever reason. He didn’t get as much time with Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski, replaced on the top line by relatively unknown rookie Melker Karlsson. With Peter DeBoer taking over in San Jose, one of his challenges will be getting the most out of Hertl because he’s an ultra-talented kid who should be topping 50 points. He could have a Tarasenko type breakout as early as next season.

Justin Schultz (D Edmonton)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 81 GP-6 G-25 A-31 PTS

Last Season Stats: 74 GP-11 G-22 A-33 PTS

Then: He had 27 points as a rookie in the lockout year then 11 goals and 33 points in 74 games for 2013-14, but his production was hindered by the Oilers going with five forwards on their top power-play unit. Assuming that experiment is over, Schultz should be good for 40, maybe even 50 points in 2014-15. He’ll have added motivation after settling for a 1-year, “show me” contract worth $3.675 million following a long summer of negotiations.

Now: Schultz didn’t produce nearly enough offence for the amount of power-play time he logged and he had his share of defensive miscues as well. Many expected him to have a big season followed by a lucrative long-term deal, but that won’t be happening this summer. After taking a step back, Schultz will need to take a couple steps forward next season under Todd McLellan to cash in on a contract like that.

Jake Gardiner (D Toronto)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 79 GP-4 G-20 A-24 PTS

Last Season Stats: 80 GP-10 G-21 A-31 PTS

Then: He inked a long-term contract this summer based on his potential and I think he’ll make that deal look like a bargain sooner than later. He already tallied 10 goals and 31 points in 2013-14 and the advanced stats gurus like to pump his tires as Toronto’s best blue-liner, so like his former Wisconsin teammate Justin Schultz, I think Gardiner should be good for 40 and perhaps even 50 points in 2014-15.

Now: A former teammate of Schultz’s at the University of Wisconsin, Gardiner was even worse this season. His offensive numbers were down, but more alarming was his minus-23 rating. That won’t fly under Mike Babcock, but the new coach could be a blessing for Gardiner going forward.

Brendan Smith (D Detroit)

Playoff Stats: 5 GP-0 G-0 A-0 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 76 GP-4 G-9 A-13 PTS

Last Season Stats: 71 GP-5 G-14 A-19 PTS

Then: His brother, Reilly, had the big breakout in 2013-14 and now it’s Brendan’s turn. He’ll likely get top-four minutes and power-play time in 2014-15, so 30 points seems like a natural progression.

Now: I’m not trying to pick on former Wisconsin blue-liners, but Smith was another disappointment this season. I was high on that trio and they all let me down. Granted, Babcock had Smith playing on the bottom pairing and he didn’t get much power-play time, but Smith needs to step it up and make the most of his minutes to climb the depth chart next season under Jeff Blashill.

Robin Lehner (G Ottawa)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 25 GP-.905 Save %-3.02 GAA

Last Season Stats: 36 GP-.913 Save %-3.06 GAA

Then: It’s only a matter of time until he overtakes Craig Anderson as Ottawa’s starter and I fully expect that torch passing to take place in 2014-15. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lehner starts 50 games.

Now: Lehner was supposed to supplant Anderson, but instead he got overtaken by Andrew Hammond for the backup role and is now expected to be traded at the draft or sometime this summer. Lehner ended the season sidelined by a concussion, but it was a rough campaign from start to finish. The good news is he should be healthy for his new team next season. If he ends up back in Ottawa, Lehner will need to earn Dave Cameron’s trust all over again.

Erik Gudbranson (D Florida)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 76 GP-4 G-9 A-13 PTS

Last Season Stats: 65 GP-3 G-6 A-9 PTS

Then: Overshadowed by first overall pick Aaron Ekblad, Gudbranson could be the former OHL star that makes the biggest impression in 2014-15.

Now: Gudbranson didn’t steal any of the spotlight from Ekblad, not even for a split second. Ekblad was a Calder finalist, while Gudbranson was solid defensively but didn’t produce much offensively. There should be upside to that end — think between 20 and 30 points next season — but Gudbranson is being moulded more as a shutdown guy for the Panthers.

Calvin de Haan (D N.Y. Islanders)

Playoff Stats: 5 GP-0 G-1 A-1 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 65 GP-1 G-11 A-12 PTS

Last Season Stats: 51 GP-3 G-13 A-16 PTS

Then: He’s drawn favourable comparisons to Alex Pietrangelo and should start to realize that potential this season.

Now: De Haan was hurt to start the season and got stuck on the bottom pairing once the Islanders acquired Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy. That meant next to no power-play time for de Haan, but he still should have produced more at even strength. De Haan will be back on the Breakout list for next season, but with realistic expectations for 20 to 30 points.

John Moore (D N.Y. Rangers/Arizona)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 57 GP-2 G-9 A-11 PTS

Last Season Stats: 74 GP-4 G-11 A-15 PTS

Then: He became a regular for the Rangers in 2013-14, chipping in 4 goals and 15 points in 74 games. He’ll be closer to 25 points in 2014-15.

Now: Moore got in Alain Vigneault’s doghouse after showing up to training camp out of shape and ended up getting shipped out of New York in the deal that landed Keith Yandle. That change of scenery to Arizona might be the best thing to happen to Moore, but time will tell next season.

Zack Kassian (F Vancouver)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 42 GP-10 G-6 A-16 PTS

Last Season Stats: 73 GP-14 G-15 A-29 PTS

Then: I think most of Vancouver’s forwards will show improvement under new coach Willie Desjardins, and that Kassian will find some consistency to his game. He had a strong finish to 2013-14, pushing his totals to 14 goals, 29 points and 124 penalty minutes, but I think he’s almost a lock for a 20-20, 40-point, 100-plus PIMs season in 2014-15.

Now: Kassian spent more time in the press box than he did on the ice, be it injured or as a healthy scratch. He’s a streaky player and had some shining moments alongside the Sedin twins, but Kassian couldn’t sustain any positive momentum. His future in Vancouver is up in the air, with Kassian’s name surfacing in trade rumours on a regular basis.

Devante Smith-Pelly (F Anaheim/Montreal)

Playoff Stats: 12 GP-1 G-2 A-3 PTS

Regular Season Stats: 74 GP-6 G-14 A-20 PTS

Last Season Stats: 19 GP-2 G-8 A-10 PTS

Then: He looked great with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry in the playoffs, but probably won’t start there in 2014-15 with the signing of Dany Heatley. But he’ll be capable of playing a depth role and working his way up, which I expect he’ll do for 15 goals and 30 points similar to Patrick Maroon in 2013-14.

Now: Smith-Pelly never got an extended look with Getzlaf and Perry and was somewhat surprisingly traded to Montreal in exchange for Jiri Sekac. The Canadiens have a need for Smith-Pelly’s grit, so he could be a good fit there next season, but likely in a depth role that will again limit his offensive numbers.

Ben Smith (F Chicago/San Jose)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 80 GP-7 G-7 A-14 PTS

Last Season Stats: 75 GP-14 G-12 A-26 PTS

Then: He was coming on strong to end 2013-14 and could have a Reilly Smith (no relation) type breakout in 2014-15. Well, that’s probably pushing it considering Reilly Smith had 20 goals and 51 points playing with better linemates than Ben Smith is likely to get. But after 14 goals and 26 points in 2013-14, I could see 20 goals and 40 points for Ben Smith in 2014-15.

Now: Smith was another head-scratcher this season, puzzling as to why he wasn’t able to pick up where he left off the previous campaign. Smith’s struggles culminated in a trade to San Jose for Andrew Desjardins, but Smith seemed to be settling in with the Sharks towards the end of the season. That makes Smith a Comeback candidate for next season, providing he gets off on the right foot with DeBoer.

Jared Cowen (D Ottawa)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 54 GP-3 G-6 A-9 PTS

Last Season Stats: 68 GP-6 G-9 A-15 PTS

Then: He may never be a big point producer, but after 15 in 68 games for 2013-14, I think he’ll be closer to 25 points for 2014-15. Moreover, I expect Cowen to emerge as a bona fide top-four and a nice complement to Erik Karlsson. I see them as full-time partners by season’s end.

Now: Cowen was a healthy scratch for Ottawa’s entire playoff series, which is pretty telling in itself. The former top-10 pick has fallen from grace and may also be shopped by the Senators this off-season. Some team might get rewarded next season for buying low on Cowen if he is made available. He’s another Comeback candidate in the right situation.

Ryan Murray (D Columbus)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 12 GP-1 G-2 A-3 PTS

Last Season Stats: 66 GP-4 G-17 A-21 PTS

Then: Just like Seth Jones in Nashville, Murray is expected to take another step forward from his 4 goals and 21 points in 66 games for 2013-14. He could flirt with 40 points in 2014-15, but should at least be good for 30.

Now: Murray’s career to date has been held back by injuries. He just can’t seem to stay healthy, can’t seem to get off the ground. But sooner or later, Murray is bound to play a full season and double those career highs from 2013-14.

Valeri Nichushkin (F Dallas)

Playoff Stats: NA

Regular Season Stats: 8 GP-0 G-1 A-1 PTS

Last Season Stats: 79 GP-14 G-20 A-34 PTS

Then: He had an impressive rookie season with 34 points in 79 games, but that was just a tease of what’s to come. The big Russian winger is capable of much more, and I don’t think 25 goals and 55 points is out of reach for 2014-15.

Now: A wonky hip kept Nichushkin on the sidelines for most of this season, but he should be fully recovered for next season. If he gets to play with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, then Nichushkin could live up to my lofty expectations a year later.

Larry Fisher is a sports reporter for The Daily Courier in Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. Follow him on Twitter: @LarryFisher_KDC.