Allan Mitchell of The Athletic recently wrote that the Edmonton Oilers — outside of getting Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod signed to new deals — are likely done making major moves this off-season. He then suggested that the next big moves would come in a few months when teams are finalizing their rosters ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. That’s probably the window to watch for Oilers fans.
He wrote:
The next big move(s) will come at the deadline. The long season will tell the tale on veterans Jack Campbell and Cody Ceci plus young players Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie.”
source – ‘Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves’ – Allan Mitchell – The Athletic – 07/17/2023
Ceci’s name has been out there and Holloway, Broberg, and Lavoie would be future pieces the Oilers might move for immediate playoff help, but Campbell’s inclusion here is interesting. That’s not so much because the Oilers wouldn’t move him if the right deal came along, but at the deadline, the right deal might present itself in a big way to GM Ken Holland.
Why Would the Oilers Have Better Trade Options Then?
It sounds like the Oilers are hanging onto both Campbell and Stuart Skinner this offseason. They’ll be no buyout of Campbell to make room for another contract. So too, Skinner is going to be a guy the Oilers rely on for a good chunk of the upcoming games. Holland thinks Campbell will bounce back, and he could be right. If the netminder doesn’t, the Oilers will likely change their attitude toward a trade around the deadline.
By then, Edmonton will have seen two seasons of Campbell, and if the goaltender struggles, the Oilers will be motivated to go in another direction. For other teams, they’ll be a bit more open to picking up bad contracts as their playoff hopes are dashed and the salary cap is about to increase. With one less season on Campbell’s deal, teams will be more open to eating his contract and the Oilers will be more open to offering a sweetener to whatever team takes Campbell on. That’s the time of the year when opposing GMs are most open to those kinds of deals because it’s all about stocking up for the upcoming draft.
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Holland will be willing to give a little because Edmonton can’t count solely on Skinner to be the backstop in the playoffs if Campbell is having a similar season to his 2022/23 campaign and trading for a rental becomes a real option.
Who Will Be Available to Edmonton?
When the summer started, the belief was that names like Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson would have started the season with other clubs. Both are free agents at the end of this coming season.
The way things have gone, it looks less and less like either will find new homes ahead of training camp. If each stays in Winnipeg and Anaheim to start the year, the trade deadline becomes the most likely place to see them moved and that works out well timing-wise for Edmonton, especially if Campbell falters.
The Oilers won’t be looking at trading for players they’ll feel a responsibility to keep. In Hellebuyck’s case, they’ll be no concern about locking him in at his rumored high ask. He’ll be strictly a rental and both he and the Oilers can look at their respective options next summer. That understood point of view from all parties involved in the trade changes the dynamics of it. Edmonton knows that what they’re getting is a short-term fix. The player knows he’s got to show well to up his standing as a free agent, and the team selling knows the market on rentals is what it is.
Possible Trade Deadline Hypothetical
If Campbell isn’t the solution and Hellebuyck is, perhaps a deal might look like the following:
Trade No. 1: (to the San Jose Sharks): Jack Campbell and a 3rd-round pick for a 7th-round selection (no salary retained as this is strictly a cap dump and the Oilers want to avoid possible Campbell buyout repercussions).
Trade No. 2: (To the Winnipeg Jets): Raphael Lavoie and a first-round pick for Connor Hellebuyck, and a later-round selection. Winnipeg retains 50% on Hellebuyck making him a $3 million pick-up. If Lavoie doesn’t work, the Oilers might want to consider Dylan Holloway.
The Oilers lose a solid prospect and a first-rounder, but they head into the playoffs with a dangerous tandem of Hellebuyck and Skinner.