A recent report from Nick Kypreos suggests that Nashville Predators forward Ryan O’Reilly pushed hard for the team to trade for Mitch Marner prior to GM Barry Trotz going buck wild in free agency. It is unclear if Marner would have waived had a trade been proposed between the two teams but the idea that the Predators had/have been linked to Marner is not new.
Kypreos said in a Toronto Star article:
“Prior to the Predators spending a whack of dough on free agents (Steven) Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei, eq-Leaf Ryan O’Reilly did his very best to convince GM Barry Trotz to make a push and trade for Mitch Marner.”
source – ‘This Maple Leafs off-season is off to a nice start. There’s a long way to go to conquer the Atlantic’ – Nick Kypreos – Toronto Star – 07/04/2024
What Would This Have Meant for Predators Free Agency?
Had this deal gone through, it’s hard to know exactly how things would have changed for the Predators in free agency but it’s easy to assume the opening day (July 1) would have been drastically different. Adding Marner would have guaranteed that the Preds wouldn’t add all three of Stamkos, Marchessault, and Skjei. It’s fair to assume both Stamkos and Marchessault aren’t Predators seeing as both talked before signing and agreed to make the jump together.
Perhaps Stamkos goes to Detroit or one of the other teams who pursued him. Maybe he still goes to Nashville, but there’s no way Trotz makes the same kind of splash with his early free-agency signings.
It also safe to assume a significant piece would have gone back to the Maple Leafs in any Marner trade — potentially goaltender Juuse Saros. The netminder was the subject of trade rumors leading into free agency but signed an eight-year extension in Nashville. Maybe the Maple Leafs add Yaroslav Askarov instead or Saros, but that wouldn’t have been enough to get the deal done.
Again, while there is no way to know for sure, presumably Stamkos, Marchessault, and Saros are all out, with Marner in. That’s significant.
What Would This Have Meant for Maple Leafs Free Agency?
Assuming Saros is part of the trade, the Leafs don’t sign Anthony Stolarz. From there, Treliving’s complete reshaping of the defense might not have been as swift. A trade would have meant the Leafs prioritized looking for a Marner replacement. Perhaps that’s not by committee, but it changes Toronto’s focus to finding help at two positions, not just one.
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As the first day of free agency unfolded, none of the team’s top-tier forwards left (depending on how you view Tyler Bertuzzi) so GM Brad Treliving was free and clear to focus on the blue line almost exclusively. No Marner on the roster means the priorities change. Who would the team have targeted to fill a top-six spot? Tyler Toffoli went for $6 million to the San Jose Sharks. Anthony Mantha went to Calgary for $3.5 million. Patrick Kane stayed in Detroit for $4 million. Beyond that, the crop of right-wingers was thin.
The Maple Leafs would have allocated a good chunk of the salary cap they spent to a top-six forward. Who that would have been is unknown but the Leafs would have needed to find points from somewhere.
At the end of the day, both teams are probably better off having gone the route they did. Marner may yet still be traded, but Toronto is arguably a better team (at the very least, different) than they were before free agency. Nashville is certainly better. The Predators gave up nothing to add what they wanted, while the Maple Leafs got their new blue line for the upcoming season. A Marner trade to the Predators might have negated all of that.