With just under a month remaining before the Dallas Stars host the Pittsburgh Penguins in the team’s first regular-season matchup, hockey fans find themselves sitting squarely in the last offseason lull before things begin to swing into motion. The prospects are battling in Traverse City, training camp is just beyond the horizon, and the preseason countdown has hit the one-week mark.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at Stars’ regular-season schedule in an attempt to curb our collective craving for on-ice action. In this analysis, we’ll try and determine which full month of play could give Dallas the biggest headache.
First, the rules: we’ll grade the months based on a point system. For each back-to-back the team faces, we’ll award the month one point. For each road game against a playoff team from last year, the month will earn two, and for each home game against a postseason club, the month will be given one (in the spirit of home-ice advantage). Finally, three points will be tacked onto the month’s final total if the amount of road games during the month outnumbers the amount of home games.
In addition, we’ll toss out April. The Stars only play four games during that month and, while they may very well be crucial, that goes against the spirit of this analysis.
Let’s get going:
October:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 0
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 2
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 3
Bonus for road/home ratio: No
Final Tally: 7 points
October racks up just seven points. It’s the first month of the season, and hopes will certainly be high among the Stars’ fanbase coming out of a very encouraging offseason. There’s a definite possibility that the club could answer those hopes with a solid performance in the month’s 11 contests.
November:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 2
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 3
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 4
Bonus for road/home ratio: Yes
Final Tally: 15 points
November could be a tough stretch for Dallas. They have two back-to backs and seven games against 2015 playoff clubs. November blows the first month of the season out of the water, more than doubling it in difficulty according to our scale. Hopefully the club can find momentum in October to carry into the true winter months, when things start to really get rolling.
December:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 4
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 5
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 5
Bonus for road/home ratio: No
Final Tally: 19 points
Yikes. While the month doesn’t get the bonus for having more road games than home games, that’s about all it has going for it. The Stars will play four back-to-backs, the most in any month of the 2105-16 season. In addition, they’ll play 10 games (out of a total of 15) against 2015 playoff teams, including a home-and-home back-to-back against St. Louis and their first matchup with Chicago, which promises to be an emotionally charged affair. December has the potential to be a big-time test with big-picture implications.
January:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 2
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 3
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 3
Bonus for road/home ratio: Yes
Final Tally: 14 points
While January only holds six matchups with playoff teams, some of the matchups with those that were on the outside looking in could prove to be tough in their own right. Dallas travels to both Los Angeles and San Jose, with the game against the Sharks coming in the second half of an Anaheim/San Jose back-to-back. It’s no December, but it’s no cakewalk, either.
February:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 1
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 6
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 5
Bonus for road/home ratio: Yes
Final Tally: 21 points
While it doesn’t have as many back-to-backs as December, February should prove to be a bear of a month, and the road/home ratio pushes it over December in our rankings. A whopping 11 games against playoff teams takes the top spot in that category, and more than half will be on the road.
March:
The Breakdown:
Back-to-backs: 1
Road games against 2015 postseason teams: 4
Home games against 2015 postseason teams: 5
Bonus for road/home ratio: No
Final Tally: 14 points
Another tough-ish month, but it can’t hold a candle to December or February. There may be a need to make up ground or extend a lead in this portion of the season, and Dallas should have a handful of opportunities to do so.
Final Rankings:
1. February (21)
2. December (19)
3. November (15)
4. January, March (14)
5. October (7)
It looks like, just when things may begin to get heated in what should be another tight playoff race in the Western Conference, the Stars may face their toughest month of all in February. The team will have to ride the optimism to take advantage of what could be an easier month in October, then power though November before running into December and its four back-to-backs. If they keep their head above water, January could provide a semblance of relief before they face our highest-ranked month of all, and March will provide opportunities to accumulate points late.
Obviously, these rankings are based off an arbitrary system; they don’t account for injuries, other teams’ back-to-backs, etc. However, they still give us a general idea of which stretches might test the rising Stars the most. Their offseason transactions should have them rumbling into the season with a full head of steam and leave them better-equipped for the gauntlet that is the West, but anyone who believes the Stars will run away from the pack and secure a playoff spot with ease may need to pull back on the reins a little bit. I still see them finishing firmly in the playoff picture, but they’ll have to endure some pretty harsh stretches to get there.