It would be hard for fans at the beginning of the season to imagine the New York Islanders would be in a playoff spot at the same time they are discussing benching Ilya Sorokin, but here we are. With his underwhelming performance through the season, there appears to be a battle in the crease for who would start Game 1 of the playoffs for the Islanders. With Semyon Varlamov getting the nod in the Islanders’ key matchup against the New York Rangers, it seems as if the team has chosen a direction moving forward.
Why Varlamov?
Both Sorokin and Varlamov have cases to start for the Islanders in the playoffs. For Varlamov, it is simple: the Islanders’ two most successful playoff runs were a result of his goaltending. In the 2020 Playoffs, he went 11-7, posting a .921 save percentage (SV%) and just 2.14 goals-against average (GAA). He followed this up in 2021 with a 7-7 record with a .922 SV% and 2.56 GAA. He has put the Islanders on his back before, and there is no reason to believe he cannot again this season.
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Amid Sorokin’s struggles this season, Varlamov has remained a steady presence in net, going 12-8-4 with a .918 SV%, 2.69 GAA, and 8.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx), according to Moneypuck. All three of those stats lead Sorokin. Varlamov has led the Islanders on their recent success, bolting them up the standings into third place in the Metropolitan Division amid their five-game winning streak. He has avoided the blowout losses, giving the Islanders a chance to win each game. While he may not be who fans anticipated to start the season, he appears to be the best option going into the playoffs.
Why Sorokin?
The case for Sorokin is not an easy one to make, but it is there. He was runner-up in the Vezina Trophy race last season, posting a 31-22-7 record with a .924 SV% and 38.7 GSAx. He was dominant in the crease and the main reason the team made the playoffs at all. While this season has been bad, his track record is among the best in hockey, and when he is on his game, there is no debate on who should start.
Which Islanders Goalie Starts the 2024 Playoffs?
The question now becomes: do the Islanders hope Sorokin finds his game or do they go with the hot hand? Nobody can go into the mind of the Islanders’ front office and management, but there are some indications of how they are leaning. Varlamov’s April 9 performance against the Rangers may lead fans to believe he will be the starter, but that may not be the case, at least the reasoning for it. Sorokin’s last three matchups against the Rangers have resulted in 15 goals against and three losses. Varlamov is 8-5-1 vs the Rangers in his career, boasting a .921 SV% with an average of 2.33 goals against. The decision to start Varlamov is purely a decision on the matchup, a reason to believe the same methodology will be used in deciding the goaltender for the playoffs.
In the most likely event of the team facing off against the Carolina Hurricanes, it is hard to tell who will start. Varlamov has played them just twice as an Islander, giving up four goals on 43 shots in a Nov. 30 win this season and three goals in a 2022 loss. Sorokin has not done well, either, so it will likely be a coin flip on who gets the nod. If the Islanders square up against the Rangers, Varlamov will most definitely be the starter. In the third realistic matchup, the Islanders would face off against the Boston Bruins. Sorokin would be the man relied on given his 2-2-2 record, career .917 SV%, and an average of 2.40 goals against them. While Varlamov has been similarly strong against the Bruins, it is more likely than not the Islanders rely on Sorokin since he has the higher upside, but he will be given a short leash.
For now, it appears as if Varlamov has the advantage over Sorokin, citing recent success and track records as the deciding factor. However, there are still four games to go this season, and the notoriously tight-lipped Islanders are sure to make no definitive statements until the time comes. As well, they still need to earn their way into the playoffs with key matchups against the Pittsburgh Penguins and New Jersey Devils coming up.