The Winnipeg Jets tied a 2.0 era record with 52 regular-season wins in 2023-24 and got strong contributions from throughout the lineup. Unfortunately, however, they made a second-straight first-round exit, losing to the Colorado Avalanche in five games. In this Report Card series, we’ll take a look back on the season, player by player, and grade their individual performances with an eye toward their future with the team.
Connor Hellebuyck had an outstanding regular season and rough playoffs. In this edition of The Hockey Writers’ Winnipeg Jets 2023-24 report card series, we’ll dive into the goaltender’s play.
Hellebuyck Likely Vezina Winner After Strong Regular Season
If there was any fear entering 2023-24 that Hellebuyck’s play would regress or he would get too comfortable after signing a massive and unexpected seven-year extension in October, there certainly shouldn’t be any fear going forward.
The 31-year-old netminder was, for the most part, stellar and should be a shoo-in to win the second Vezina Trophy of his career and first since 2020. There were certainly other goaltenders around the league who had excellent seasons, but none were as key to their team’s success as Hellebuyck; he has been the Jets’ cornerstone for nearly a decade now and stolen countless games, and this season was no exception.
First and foremost, Hellebuyck was the biggest contributor to the Jets capturing their first William M. Jennings Trophy in franchise history as they allowed a league-low 199 goals. Laurent Brossoit also contributed with a rock-solid season in his own right, but did not qualify as a partial award winner as he did not make 25 appearances.
Hellebuyck’s numbers certainly prove his impact on the team and worthiness for the Vezina. In 60 starts, he won 37 games (second in the league behind the Colorado Avalanche’s Alexandar Georgiev in three fewer starts) and posted a 2.39 goals against average, .921 save percentage, five shutouts, and 40 quality starts. His GAA was second-best among goalies who made 50-plus starts, his SV% was the best among those, his shutouts tied him for second league wide, and his 40 quality starts were most in the league.
His goals saved above expected (GSAx), at 33.1, was best in the league by far; more than 10 better than the second-place goaltender, Thatcher Demko, whose GSAx was 22.1. His wins above replacement (WAR) of 5.52 — a metric that uses one number to illustrate the value (in wins) an individual player provided over a “replacement level” player — was also best in the league. Demko, who finished second, had a 3.69 WAR.
Hellebuyck was also named an NHL All-Star for the fourth time in his career and played in his 500th-career NHL game on March 30 against the Ottawa Senators.
The Jets’ recommitment to playing well without the puck made his life a little easier on some nights compared to seasons past, and their stout structure combined with his trademark “big and boring” play style allowed them to go 34-straight games without surrendering more than three goals between November and late January. However, on other nights — a little more often during the back half of the season — they leaned on him heavily to win.
His 35-save performance against the New York Islanders on Jan. 16, 35-save performance against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 10, 39-save performance against the New York Rangers on March 19, and a season-high 45-save performance against the Nashville Predators on April 9 — all Jets wins — stand out as just a few times he dragged his team kicking and screaming to victory.
Hellebuyck, Like the Rest of the Jets, Had Poor Playoffs
Entering the first-round series against the Avalanche, it seemed the Jets’ biggest advantage would be in goal, considering Georgiev had struggled throughout the season. That on-paper advantage never materialized on the ice; the Jets defense was decimated by the Avalanche’s high-octane attack and the players in front of Hellebuyck saw how bad their fortunes can be when he fails to bail them out.
Hellebuyck looked shaky from the get-go and failed to come up with big saves at key times, which often turn the tide of momentum in short series. He gave up 19 goals through the first four games — the most of any four-game stretch in his entire nine-season career — and finished with 24 goals against, an ugly 5.23 GAA, .870 SV%, and a negative 5.0 GSAx. That negative 5.0 GSAx number is most revealing of his struggles.
Discourse about him through the series was firmly divided into two camps: one deemed him completely at fault, while the other deemed him completely blameless for any pucks past him.
The reality falls somewhere in between: the defense in front of him didn’t do him any favours, allowing way more high-danger chances and a far greater expected goals against than they did in the regular season, but Hellebuyck also wasn’t nearly at his best. Even his greatest apologists have to admit he was subpar under the brightest lights and that his recent playoff series performances are cause for concern — he has allowed three-plus goals in nine-straight playoff games.
Related: Jets Crushed By Avalanche in 5 Games: What Went Wrong?
Hellebuyck had some interesting answers to questions about his play and process at his end-of-season media availability.
“I was playing the best hockey of my career, that’s truly how I was feeling. Not only was I playing some of my best hockey, but I was in the zone where you’re not thinking, you’re just playing,” he said. “That’s what you seek after. That’s a dangerous thing in sports. To not be able to keep four goals off the board, it’s heartbreaking. It really is heartbreaking.”
If Jets Want to Win, They’ll Need to Win With Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck, once seemingly destined to leave the Jets as an unrestricted free agent, instead put pen to paper to make him a likely Jet for life. He’s all in and desires a Stanley Cup above all else, which is a GM and coach’s dream, and the team’s contention window is still open despite the early exit against the Avalanche.
Hellebuyck should have at least a couple shots at lifting Lord Stanley’s mug in his new contract’s time frame, and the Jets have the luxury of knowing they’ve got one of the league’s best goalies through 2031.
Despite the poor playoff performance, which wasn’t entirely his fault but is something he’ll have to overcome if the Jets want to go deeper in the postseason in the future, his larger body of work still warrants a high grade.
Final Grade: A
