With interim head coach Scott Arniel suggesting Gabriel Vilardi could play on the Winnipeg Jets’ upcoming road trip, it opened up a discussion about his placement in the lineup upon his return.
Vilardi has been out since Oct. 17 after suffering a sprained MCL against the Los Angeles Kings. Since then, the Jets have found stability with their lineup construction. The top line, which Vilardi opened the season on, is now finding success on the scoresheet with Alex Iafallo occupying the right wing slot.
The middle six is also playing at a high level, allowing the Jets to consistently roll their lines without fear of being overmatched. Having that depth and production makes for a much more consistent 5v5 attack, which the Jets have excelled at during this impressive stretch of games.
The question remains, though, where does Vilardi fit upon his return?
Replace Iafallo on the Top Line
While the scoresheet indicates that the top line is clicking, it won’t necessarily be sustained. Riding a heater from Kyle Connor, once Iafallo moved up, the results have been much better than anticipated after a slow start.
That being said, that line is often out-chanced and outshot, which implies that any slump could ultimately sink the trio back down to earth. In just over 181 minutes together this season, they have a 42.7% expected goals (xG%) and a 45.2% Corsi (shot attempts.)
That group is taking up most of the offensive ice time, regularly outplayed and often bailed out by Connor’s hot hand, which is a recipe for future frustration. This isn’t to discredit them in terms of what they’ve actually produced, but this is where the coaching staff has to make a tough decision and try and optimize it.
Enter Vilardi, who looked outstanding with Mark Scheifele and Connor in limited minutes this season. It feels like the best fit for the returning forward, who can elevate that line to the dynamic entity that was so successful early in the year.
In the 26.4 minutes they played together, they put up the best offensive underlying numbers of every line the Jets have iced this season. In limited action, they posted an 81% xG and looked outright dominant. It was one of those situations where the underlying numbers agreed with the eye test, which is usually the case when lines click that well.
Ideally, Vilardi slides right back into that role and plays his game, which made the whole line look elite in a young NHL season. There will be doubts about throwing him into the fire upon his return, but allowing him to play his way back up to speed in the role he was given early seems like the best bet to accelerate that process.
Versatility With Perfetti on Second Line
An alternate solution would be to utilize the positional versatility of the second line. With Vilardi and Cole Perfetti able to play both wing and center, it would allow for an easier “plug and play” option that would keep that line as a solid offensive unit.
The Jets could run either one of Perfetti or Vilardi down the middle, which would add an additional punch to an already potent trio. Vladislav Namestnikov has filled that spot since the lines got shuffled, and while he has done a good job of keeping up, this would undoubtedly level things up.
That said, the overall results from the trio are good enough that splitting it up could alter their performance. At 5v5, they’ve outscored opponents 8-3 (a 72.7 goals percentage) and have outshot them 135-113 (a 54.4% Corsi). While moving Perfetti off of center raised questions, the current makeup of that line flat-out works and Perfetti has turned into a reliable top-six forward.
Both the second and third lines have been spectacular over the past several weeks as the Jets have won seven of their past eight games, including four straight after their overtime win against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Nov. 22.
Related: 5 Takeaways from Jets’ Five-Game Homestand
Would disrupting your better performers prove costly? In both underlying and actual results, the two middle six trios have been the Jets’ best lines all season. With that being the case, it may be beneficial to put Vilardi somewhere else.
How Would the Rest of the Jets’ Lines Look?
If Vilardi reclaims his spot on the top line, the Iafallo move would likely raise some eyebrows. There is the option to plug him into one of the middle-six lines, but that, once again, runs the risk of disrupting a good thing. While it sounds like a downgrade for Iafallo, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing to place him in the fourth-line right-wing spot.
It’s easy to look at this as a major demotion, but it could also be an opportunity to better the entirety of the lineup. The coaching staff has shown a great deal of faith in what Iafallo can do, and that would likely translate to more ice time for the fourth line.
If the Jets didn’t want to drop him that low? Well, in that case, the next best bet would be to see what he looks like on Perfetti’s wing on the second line. The play styles don’t seem to match up, but the coaching staff might consider the option, given their trust in Iafallo.
On the off chance that Vilardi slots in on the second line, Namestnikov will likely find himself back on the fourth line where he started the season. It wouldn’t disrupt that line, given his defensive prowess, but the question still remains if splitting up that line is for the best.
The only other option for Iafallo would be to swap him out for Mason Appleton on the third line. It wouldn’t move the needle in either direction, but it feels safe to assume the production levels would be similar. The coaching staff loves that “third” line, however, as they actually receive second-line minutes, so it’s hard to imagine a world where they are split up.
A Good Problem to Have
Unfortunately, someone will be demoted when Vilardi slots back into the lineup. That being said, this is a really good problem to have for the Jets. This is a level of offensive depth that the team hasn’t seen in years, and while things are clicking now, a hard decision will have to be made while looking out for the future.
Ideally, they get Vilardi back into the fold quickly, as he is a legitimate impact player who can play a massive role in team success. It isn’t reasonable to expect him to slide in with Connor and Scheifele and pick right up where he left off, but if they can even be half as dominant as they were together early this season, the Jets get just a bit closer to being in the true “contender” tier.
xG, Corsi, and GF% courtesy of MoneyPuck.