The line combinations have dominated headlines in Winnipeg for weeks now, and those conversations continued through the Jets’ six-game losing streak. Now with the Jets having won five straight games, the lines are beginning to take shape for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where it’s looking likely that the Jets will be facing the Colorado Avalanche in round one.
For months, the Jets’ top-six line combinations have been in flux. During this winning streak and with just three games remaining until the playoffs, they have plenty of options as they gear up for round 1, game 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Winnipeg Jets Reunite Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi in 3-0 Win vs. Stars
The Winnipeg Jets are coming off of one of their most impressive wins of the season, a 3-0 road win over the Dallas Stars, the top line consisted of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi. That trio has notably struggled when together this season, posting a 34.1 expected goals percentage through 170 minutes at five-on-five.
Rick Bowness acknowledged those struggles ahead of the game against Dallas, saying: “Yeah, we put them back together, they’ve got to tighten it up a little bit. We split them up because they were spending a little bit too much time in our zone, but again, if we want to get some continuity with our offence and some lines, and they play together a lot, and we’ve got to get them going. It’s as simple as that.”
There is concern, and it’s a valid concern, as to how this trio will stack up on the same ice against the likely Hart Trophy winner, Nathan MacKinnon. On home ice, the Jets can control the matchup and ensure that Adam Lowry’s line is against Colorado’s best, but on the road, this line could struggle.
Winnipeg’s 3-0 win over Dallas was a step in the right direction for that line, as they broke even across almost all analytics, generated a handful of scoring chances, and didn’t give up too much in return against one of the NHL’s best teams. It’s only one game, but it’s a game where the Jets played some of their best defensive hockey in months, and that top line didn’t get pinned in their zone too often.
Another layer to that line being together, is how dominant the second line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan, and Tyler Toffoli has been for the Jets. Rick Bowness said: “The Ehlers-Monahan-Toffoli line, when they were playing together before Tyler got sick, they were scoring every game. So we gotta get a little more balance up front on those top two lines.”
According to Money Puck, In 80 five-on-five minutes together, that second line has outscored their opponents 8-2, and have an expected goals percentage (xG%) of 59.4%.
All this to say, the easiest route to success for the current line configuration is the top line reversing the trend and outscoring their opposition. The second and third lines have each been fantastic, and with the top line contributing, this could be a playoff-series-winning top-nine for the Jets.
Jets’ Have Option to Go Back to Dominant Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi
Because of the top line’s struggles, and Bowness’ hope to find more balance in the top-six, there has to be a backup option for the Jets if that top line continues to struggle. That backup option is the dominant trio of Ehlers, Scheifele, and Vilardi.
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They have outscored their opponents 16-6 at five-on-five this season, an incredible 72.7 percent of the goal share. While many Jets fans would like for this to be the full-time top line, it’s clear that the coaching staff has been moulding the current line configurations for a while now. This has been one of the best lines in hockey, and while the coaching staff insists on the current lineup, having this as a backup plan if the series goes south is something that they’ll have to keep in mind.
Nino Niederrieter has missed a handful of games with a leg laceration, but when he is able to return, he can re-join the dominant third line of himself, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton, which has outscored their opponents 23-15 over 675 minutes this season. They are tasked with playing tough minutes against the opponent’s best lines, and in those minutes, they have posted a 60.5 percent goal share, which easily cements them as one of the best third lines in the entire NHL.
Between the second and third line’s dominance, it’s up to the top line to win their minutes, and the Jets can have as good of a top-nine as anyone in the Western Conference. If that line loses their minutes early and often against the Avalanche in round one, you could see the Jets coaching staff quickly pivot to one of their best lines from the regular season. Until then, Jets fans will be hoping that their team can clinch home-ice advantage over the Avs over their final three games, and with the advantage of the final change and control of the matchups, you can expect to see a lot of Lowry vs. MacKinnon inside Canada Life Centre.