The Winnipeg Jets need to usher in the future of their blue line and increase their short-term financial flexibility. They can accomplish both things by buying out Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt.
Buying out both defensemen would be relatively simple as they are in the final years of their respective contracts. Pionk’s current deal is a four-year one he signed with the Jets in 2021 that carries a $5.875 million average annual value (AAV), while Schmidt’s deal is a six-year one he signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2018 that general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff inherited in a 2021 trade that carries a $5.95 million AAV.
Pionk, in the first three seasons of his extension, has not replicated the quality of play he provided in his first two seasons in Winnipeg. He has played a top-six role but has struggled over the past two seasons on the defensive side of the puck; his offensive contributions have not outweighed his defensive gaffes and declining possession metrics.
Schmidt has spent three seasons with the Jets but has become a very expensive seventh defenseman who is in and out of the lineup. He is well-liked for his kind and gregarious personality, but his on-ice metrics and offensive numbers have dipped a lot — to 19 points in 2022-23 and and 14 points this season — from the 32 he put up in his first season with the Jets. He will be 33 by the time next season begins, and it’s around that age many defensemen begin to decline.
In a buyout scenario, the Jets would have to pay Pionk and Schmidt two-thirds of their remaining salaries over two years. They would owe them a combined $4.591 million next season — opening up $7.233 million in additional cap space — but then owe them a combined $3.616 million in 2025-26.
The buyout period begins the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final ends and concludes on June 30 at 5 p.m. EDT, as per CapFriendly.
Cheveldayoff Could Use Extra Money This Offseason
That $7-plus million in short-term savings well outweighs the $3.616 million kicked down the road. The funds would be nothing less than a massive boost for Cheveldayoff, who has a long list of unrestricted and restricted free agents on the books he’d like to retain after a 52-win season.
With Pionk and Schmidt bought out, Cheveldayoff would have more than $20 million at his disposal opposed to around $13 million. This would be enough to re-sign the four highest-profile players in need of new contracts: Sean Monahan, Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon (instead of letting him walk into unrestricted free agency as reported is most likely), and Cole Perfetti.
Related: Winnipeg Jets 2024 Unrestricted Free Agent Overview
Monahan, who was brought in as a rental but fit right in on the top six and spoke highly of the organization in his year-end comments, will likely command about $6 million per year. That’s what he made in a six-year contract he signed with the Calgary Flames before signing a one-year, $2 million “prove it” contract with the Montreal Canadiens last summer.
DeMelo’s AAV should come in around $4 million, as should Dillon’s. A shorter-term deal for Dillon would be best, as he’s 33. In regards to Perfetti, a bridge deal with an AAV between $3 and $4 million is the most likely outcome for a player who set career highs in goals with 19 and points with 38 but was also a frequent healthy scratch down the stretch.
Even if Perfetti commands $4 million, Cheveldayoff would still have $4 million left to sign a new backup goaltender given Laurent Brossoit’s likely departure and ink a couple more of his cheap UFAs/RFAs and/or depth pieces on the open market.
Jets Should Embrace Blue-Line Youth Movement, Revamp
In this author’s opinion, the best way to revamp the Jets’ defence for next season would be:
- Buy out Schmidt and Pionk
- Trade the rights to Logan Stanley
- Re-sign Dillon to a shorter deal instead of letting him walk into unrestricted free agency
- Re-sign DeMelo
- Give Ville Heinola a permanent NHL roster spot
- Re-sign Kyle Capobianco and give him a shot to make the NHL roster
- Re-sign Colin Miller as a third-pairing or seventh defenseman
- Add another right-handed defenseman through free agency or from the prospect pipeline
Dillon is on record as wanting to stay with the Jets, hence may be willing to take a hometown discount. DeMelo wants to stay as well and is not only a great complement to Josh Morrissey on the top pairing, but is also an analytics darling with great intelligence.
Dylan Samberg has emerged as one of the Jets’ best defensive defensemen and looks ready to take on bigger minutes. At the very least, he’s a very good third-pairing guy.
Heinola, who had done enough last preseason to earn an NHL spot according to now-retired head coach Rick Bowness but suffered a fractured ankle in the Jets’ final preseason game, is too good for the AHL. The 23 year old, who spent the back half of the season with the Manitoba Moose after recovering and had 27 points in 41 games and a plus-6 rating, needs big-league minutes if he’s to develop into the top-four talent and power-play quarterback the organization still hopes he will. It’s likely next season or never for Heinola and the Jets, as he’s voiced frustration before about not getting a prolonged NHL opportunity.
Fellow Moose Kyle Capobianco, meanwhile, had an outstanding season, leading all AHL blue liners with 54 points (12 goals, 42 assists,) posting a plus-29 rating on a team that had a negative-18 goal differential, and winning the Eddie Shore Award as the league’s outstanding defenseman. Capobianco, who is 26 and has played 73-career NHL games, is obviously is good enough to be a big-league regular but would likely only re-sign with the Jets if a path to regular NHL work was apparent.
Miller, acquired from the New Jersey Devils at deadline, was initially thought to be a lineup regular and an upgrade over Pionk on the second pairing or Schmidt and/or Stanley on the third pairing. However, Miller only played five games down the stretch and one playoff game. Re-signing the 31-year-old of 500-plus NHL games would provide additional veteran presence and a viable option for either third-pairing or injury-replacement duties.
This would make the defenders for next season: Capobianco, DeMelo, Dillon, Heinola, Morrissey, Miller, and Samberg. Cheveldayoff would likely need to add another right-hander as only DeMelo and Miller are right handed, although Heinola is capable of playing both sides. This could be done through free agency or by giving Simon Lundmark and Elias Salomonsson, two right-handed d-men in the Jets’ pipeline, a look.
Cheveldayoff has a chance to make his defensive core younger, cheaper, and potentially better while freeing up more money to spend up front. He should take it.