About a month before the season began, I made three bold predictions about the 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets, who at the time had a lot of uncertainty swirling around them.
Now that their season is over, it’s time to revisit my predictions and see if any came true or at least were close to.
Prediction 1: Gabriel Vilardi Scores 30 Goals
Did it come true? Not quite. He fell 8 short.
If Vilardi had been healthy all season, this prediction would have come true.
My prediction was that the key piece in the trade that sent Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings a few months prior to making my predictions would break out into a true top-six talent and thus eclipse his career-high goal mark of 23.
He was that true top-six talent when in the lineup, displaying an uncanny net-front prowess. Unfortunately, his campaign was riddled with injuries: he missed 16 games due to an MCL sprain in early October sustained when tripped from behind by former teammate Blake Lizotte, missed two games in January due to an undisclosed lower-body injury, and missed 15 games down the stretch due to an enlarged spleen and undisclosed upper-body injury.
Ultimately, Vilardi ended up with 22 goals — including a team-leading nine on the power play — in 47 games, just one fewer goal than he had in 2022-23 in 16 fewer games. His 0.468 goals per game clip translated into 38.37 over 82 games. If he can avoid long stretches out of the lineup in 2024-25, he should be able to hit the 30-goal mark and be in good position for a raise as a restricted free agent next summer.
Prediction 2: Josh Morrissey Gets a Norris Trophy Nomination
Did it come true? No.
He became known as “Josh Norrissey” by fans in 2022-23, but an actual Norris Trophy nomination eluded Josh Morrissey that season. The defenseman finished fifth in voting despite busting out with an All-Star campaign, putting up 76 points (16 goals, 60 assists) to more than double his old career best of 37 and cementing himself as not only the cornerstone of the franchise but one of the NHL’s most dominant offensive blue liners. San Jose Shark (and now Pittsburgh Penguin) Erik Karlsson won the award in a runaway thanks to his ridiculous 101-point campaign.
Morrissey’s success seemed sustainable under head coach Rick Bowness — who unleashed a monster by encouraging Morrissey to jump up in the play and produce offence from the back end — so I predicted Morrissey would snag a nomination this time around for the NHL’s top defenseman.
He indeed had a strong encore campaign and continued to operate at an elite level on the top pairing. While his point total dipped slightly to 69, he posted a plus-34 rating, a huge jump from his plus-2 rating in 2022-23, and improved his already-strong possession metrics.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get him a nomination as Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Roman Josi were named finalists. We won’t know where Morrissey finished in voting until the awards show on June 27.
Prediction 3: Cheveldayoff Doesn’t Trade Either Connor Hellebuyck or Mark Scheifele By the Deadline
Did it come true? Yes.
The general manager didn’t need to trade them, because he signed them both against all odds before the season began.
Mid-afternoon on Thanksgiving Monday, the Jets dropped the bombshell news that their number-one centre and number-one goaltender had signed identical seven-year extensions to likely make them Jets for life.
Both stars seemed good as gone last summer as both were pending unrestricted free agents not interested in participating in a rebuild, which the Jets seemed destined to enter after their disappointing first-round playoff exit last spring.
Retaining Hellebuyck and/or Scheifele after the 2024 Trade Deadline — if they were un-signed — would be terrible asset management, I wrote at the time. However, I pointed to past instances of Cheveldayoff waiting too long to trade players as a possibility he may use one or both as “in-house” rentals if the Jets were in a playoff spot.
I opined that smarter routes, given at the time the entire hockey world believed they wanted out, were to trade them before the season started or at least by the deadline — regardless of placement in the standings — to avoid losing them for nothing.
That nightmare scenario never came close to occurring as Cheveldayoff worked to get a deal done with both players and in the process, sent a clear message his team would remain in “win-now” mode. Scheifele notched a team-leading 72 points (25 goals, 47 assists) in 2023-24, and Hellebuyck had an outstanding 37-win campaign that will likely capture him the second Vezina Trophy of his career. Unfortunately, neither player — nor any other Jet, really — excelled in the postseason as Jets made another early exit, getting thumped in five games by the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.